Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Chicago Death Spiral Resumes

After a three-month stutter, Conehead's reign resumes it's resemblance to a toilet flush:

  • Chicago-area business activity contracted in April, resuming a long-term decline after three months of expansion, according to the Chicago Business Barometer.

    The metro area scored 49.2 for the month, down from 52.8 in March. A score below 50 indicates decline.

    The return to business activity contraction is particularly worrying because after 25 consecutive months of contraction from December 2023 to December 2025, the baseline for achieving an overall expansionary score is much lower.

Keep in mind the businesses associated with a large business leaving town....say a sport franchise worth a few billion dollars:

  • sales taxes on ticket sales; concessions and souvenir sales; parking fees;
  • people staying in hotels, patronizing restaurants and bars;
  • all the other people who operate or work for those associated businesses

That type of contraction leaves a short-term unfillable gap in tax revenues....and maybe a permanent one, kind of like all those conventions leaving McCormick Place for either Florida or Vegas.

Now imagine two sport franchises leaving within a couple years of each other - one to either the burbs or Indiana and another to Tennessee.

"Death Spiral" barely describes what's underway.

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