Contrarian Wins Again

Five days ago, the Contrarian had this:

• Here is some chilling news for Chicago.

  Despite @ChicagosMayor's claim a hiring freeze would not affect CPD, we've learned no training classes will be accepted to CPD academy until December.

  CPD is also preparing for massive cuts — defund-level cuts — to the police budget.

Late yesterday, the Sun Times discovered:

• The Chicago Police Department won’t launch recruit classes for at least two months — fueling complaints that Mayor Brandon Johnson is reneging on his promise to exempt public safety agencies from a citywide hiring freeze.

  And at an emergency Cabinet meeting Tuesday, Chief Operating Officer John Roberson ordered other department heads to identify personnel cuts — beyond reductions already made — and submit proposals by Friday. The goal: $75 million in additional savings in 2025.

And amid all the noise, a "shortage number" appears:

• Canceling police academy classes for at least two months also did not sit well with the police union’s Council allies. They noted CPD, with 11,660 sworn officers, already is 1,693 officers below its January 2019 level.

  Between January 2022 and June 2024, the police department processed 28 academy classes, averaging 68 recruits each, over a 30-month period to make up for time lost during the pandemic.

If our memory serves us correctly, between January 1995 and December 1998, nearly 4,000 cops were hired with the assistance of federal grant money doled out by Clinton.

• 1995 + 29-and-a-day = 2024

Meaning there are 4,000 potential retirements on tap for the next thru 2027. We say potential because of the large number who did:

• 20 and out
• 55 and gone
• any combination of the above
• laterals
• the usual resignations, jailings, firings and deaths

Some enterprising reporter with time and FOIA ability could easily find seniority lists and put some weight behind those numbers.