Perfect Storm

A comment a day or so ago pointed out another hiring wave that we knew of, but hadn't really put together with other info we had. Bear with us.

We think we can identify three major hiring waves preceding and occurring within our careers:

• 1991-1994....upwards of 3,500 officers
  
• 1995-1998....between 4,500 and 5,500 officers (the Clinton money)
  
• 2004-2006....+/- 2,500 officers

There are other smaller ones, but these are approximately the big ones.

Now work through the career milestones: 

• 1991 + 20 years = 2011 (not many were doing 20-and-out)
• 1991 + 29 years = 2020 (COVID times)
• 1995 + 20 years = 2015
• 1995 + 29 years = 2024 (today's max)
• 2004 + 20 years = 2024 (today's max)

Those 1991 people might have stuck around past 29, but as the job stands now as to what it was when they came on, they're leaving fast.

The 1995 people are maxing out as we speak.

The 2004 crew has hit their 20 years. They aren't wedded to the job like many were. They believe they're old enough to leave with 50% pensions and start a second career somewhere else....and they're probably right.

That's THREE classes amounting to thousands, all hitting an inflection point that makes the exit door look even better with nothing currently keeping them interested in a job that actively hates them and that they've grown to dislike.

Anyone else seeing this? We might be off a bit on the years, but we're pretty close on the numbers. We heard a friend describe these as "bubbles moving along a timeline" a long time ago and it certainly looks like the bubble is about ready to explode.