Homicide Rate vs Actual Numbers
Someone posted this in a comment section, and since we are a comment driven blog, we decided to make a post about it. It's an older article, around 2022, but it appears to be updated occasionally, outlining America's "deadliest cities." Sounds scary, so we read it. It's mostly pictures and numbers (which we like) and it categorized cities by homicide rates (which we don't like).
We like numbers. Numbers are usually our friends, We use numbers when we gamble (toothpicks only!) and when we calculate overtime checks. But some people - reporters mostly - abuse numbers and use them for nefarious purposes....misrepresenting things.
Like this....the top three deadliest cities of 2019 (by rate - per 100K) were #3 Birmingham @ 50.62, #2 Baltimore @ 58.27 and St. Louis @ 64.54. Peoria makes an appearance as the 15th deadliest city, with a rate of 22.53. Chicago doesn't appear until #28 with a rate of 18.26 per 100K. Seems like St Louis is a bad place to be, around three times more deadly than Chicago.
But by the numbers, St Louis had 194 homicides in 2019. Baltimore had 348. Birmingham had 115.
Peoria had 25...and that was a record. Broken two years later when they hit 26. We have Districts that do that inside of three months.
Chicago's numbers for 2019 (via HeyJackass.com) were 521. In 2020 we scored 798. 856 in 2021 and 737 in 2022. We're almost at 350 as we type this halfway through the year.
Homicide rates are what politicians brag about when they're losing the war on crime and they're stuck in a spiral they can't pull out of.
Labels: stats
posted by SCC at 12:03 AM
38 Comments:
Like you, we don't use homicide rate as we prefer straight numbers vs calculations. We've gotten numerous comments over the years (we call them the "per-capitists") along the lines of "ChiCaGo IsN'T eVen iN the TOp 10 WoRSt CiTieS" which typically dovetails with "It'S NoT aS BaD aS tHe NinETIes!"
As a way to illustrate how Chicago benefits in the homicide rate calculation by having a massive 2.5MM denominator, we went down to the community area and ran the calculations a couple of years ago.
2020 (per 100k)
Garfield Park (East & West) @ 169.02
Englewood (including West) @ 136.46
Austin @ 82.31
2021 (per 100k)
Garfield Park (East & West) @ 201.74
Englewood (including West) @ 115.32
Austin @ 78.09
Strip out the top 15 deadliest community areas, which is 600k-ish people, and what's left, 1.8 - 1.9MM people, has a homicide rate of around 12 per 100k.
If Garfield Park was it's own town...
Stick with
Heyjackass
His numbers tell the true tales.....
In 2019, St. Louis had 194 homicides from a population of 300,887 documented residents. Chicago had 521 homicides out of 2,691,000 documented residents.
For Chicago to outpace St. Louis in homicides in 2019, there must have been a minimum of 4,660 homicides.
Dad use to say "figures don't lie but liars can figure"
Another example of this game is Chicago's U.S. Census. One story will tell you Chicago population of around 2.5 mil has been declining at a rate of something like 1.6% per year for the last ten years. MSM not liking that puts out another story telling you how the Chicago 'METRO AREA" OF AROUND 8 MIL IS GROWING!; Yeah the metro area covers suburbs all the way out to Naperville.
Chicago will continue to bleed citizens from crime to other parts of the country. How long do politicians think the public will continue to tolerate high crime levels.
"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." You can make everything seem better with the latter....
A Great TV Series Homicide Life On The Street. It Story Line Was The
Workings Of The Baltimore Police Homicide Unit. They Would Always
Put The Suspects “In The Box” And The Detectives Would Conduct Their
Interviews. By Using Experience, Common Sense, Good Old Fashioned
Police Work. The Suspect Would Leave As A Charged Offender After
Giving It Up. This Show Was Canceled After A Long Run Just Like The
City Of Baltimore Is Today.
I think St. Louis is pretty bad. Per capita worse than Caracas Venezuela.
DemocRATs destroyed these cities..burn baby burn
Homicides like all crimes will increase especially thanks to JB Jelly belly rejoicing at the no bail stupidity! Was speaking to a sheriff in will county he said the boss told him that releasing these prisoners,and not locking them up can result in a reduction (layoff) of sheriffs in the court and jail system!
Figures lie and liars figure. Statistics can be used to juggle ugly crime numbers any way the politicians want. Chicago has led the nation in total murders for about 10 years.
Homicide rates for whole cities aren't of any value because cities encompass areas of unique, discrete, and diverse populations, each of which should have its own metrics. That's why HeyJackass.com breaks the homicides down by location.
It would take some work, but calculating rates by neighborhood or district would give us a much better picture of what's going on (or where to avoid).
The mind blowing part is like only ~63% of data is even being submitted nationwide (from USAfacts.org). It’s either by missing the deadlines, not having the ability to do it, or just refusing. I guess it depends on what site one uses too. I believe some years are even omitted? Makes me think of our dumb traffic stop study, each year either it’s not the right data they want or folks are somehow doing it wrong.
How many of the killed have ever had a real job?
For apples-to-apples, you have to compare areas of equal population. If they are going to use "per 100K" rates, they should compare areas with 100K populations. Peoria is just a little over 100K, so the entire city is "one apple". Chicago is many times 100K, so a 100K area might be the "bad apples" of the southside or westside. Anyone with a brain knows the homicide rates for those areas are off the charts.
St Louis can lower the crime rate by hiring Sgt Dowling!
It's all the OTHER crime that makes Chitcago unlivable!
Liberals are always quick to make that “rate” argument in their defense of Chicago.
The numbers do tell the whole story. There are more dangerous cities than Chicago however there is almost nowhere as dangerous than an Englewood, Garfield Park or an Austin. No even sure Ukraine as a whole is as dangerous as those three areas.
The left hates any real data about Chicago. Our homicide numbers each month exceed any mass shooting that takes place, those are isolated incidents. As of today, HeyJackass says we have 33 homicides and 222 shootings for the month of July. Chicago simply has more murders and shootings than anyone else.
Garfield park is Mogadishu with better fast food options. Probably equal crime rates
How about the Homicides classified as death investigations. The ones where individuals are found on sidewalks? Victims that are sucker punched.
Keep the line moving.
Now, kees me you fool!!!!
I have to agree with you squad. Ive been in many urban shitholes in my day, all across the world even, and Chicago is definitely #1. Not to insult all you residents of all the other shithole nominee's but having worked the west and south sides of Chicago, shitholes both, there really isn't any other shithole as shitty in America. Maybe the world.
And while I hate demonizing our yutes it seems to be getting shittier and shittier now that the Police are disengaged and we got this progressive nitwit running the show. If it weren't for the rock stars in our trauma centers imagine the numbers we'd have? Fuck! It cost's a fortune keeping these gangsters alive after being shot and for very little return in the investment.
Chicago is the ultimate, urban American shithole. I'd put it up against any other shithole in the world.
Homicide numbers are a farce of craziness statistics. Medical tech , response yikes , and now advent of med just on our squads give poikie a giant increase of survival rates. Shootings , robberies , carjackings and violent crimes need to be all taken into consideration and then you’ll see all these major metropolis’ rising to the top
These places are lot unsafe than ever. Just remember. The FBI still doesn’t recognize Chicago’s Uniform crime reporting index as legitimate. They know are numbers are cooked and that’s why Chicago never is included
What would be real interesting would be the actual clearance rate where people are convicted and go to jail. Would 10 to 15 percent be a reasonable number?
MEDIA propaganda is such a wonderful thing isn't it?
All the pictures designed to evoke stong emotions and not a single picture of a tattooed drug cartel or street gang scholar that is a major root cause of the issue. No pics of the 5 million and counting illegalimmigrants joe biden allows to be used as toils for said drugs cartels used to raise money to produce and import fentenal. So much media BULLSHIT
Will the MSM ever crunch and disseminate the numbers regarding demographics involved in these murders and aggravated batteries with firearm? We all know, but it’s obviously an inconvenient truth for our media overlords.
How about the dozens of Northside robberies of white folks by what is clearly roving packs of black offenders? Ski masks or no ski masks, those motherfuckers are still easily identifiable as MALE BLACK. But when the eventuality of a concealed carry holder ventilates a couple of those motherfuckers? THEN the news will report that a male white shot a couple black teens who simply approached him to ask directions.
population density.
Thinking Englwwood is said to have only 27,000 residents left and Englewood is 3 sq miles giving it a population density of 9,000 people per sq mile.
That said another 9,000 homicides in Englewood and you've wiped out 1 sq mile of population.
Or here's another thought for the day.11,000 illegal immigrants are here concentrat the so called welcoming centers in Englewood and over one sq mile of turf has been taken over. Another 3,000 and the Englewood community is now majority Hispanic illegals.
With that said someone ask the black community their who's culture is that it takes a village to raise a child as the Obama themselves preach and I ask you how's that work when the village speaks Spanish and your children do not. Not to mention when the media gets all righteous and asks the question where are the parents at the next mass shooting. The answered is obvious for some the parents are still on the other side of the border that's where. If a U.S
citizen toddler is found a block or two away from their home unaccompanied by a parent will get locked up yet another pass is given to the illegals parent doing the abandoning.
I hear you can get up to $80 from a drug cartel for a Hispanic kid that will be sold in turn to some other migrant to build a family image to skirt our asylum laws. Don't forget ten percent goes to the big guy and Trump is the racists one tho
Wait until u see the debacle that is Area 1 Detectives. Led by the triple merit commander Watson who never got one person charged. Now she is pushing through clearances just to increase the rate. She doesn’t know the procedure and this will now be exploited by the media. Cooking the books by the incompetent
Peoria is losing population at an alarming rate. Less than 115,000 at best, in reality. So if they have 25 deaths, yes, they will
crack 22 per 100,000. But still, that is two a month. Deaths per 100,000 is a misleading statistic
Chicago is bad, the yutes are all over doing crimes and the court system is a joke. Heyjackass is great, But for cities I know nothing about the per capita figures and city demographics are still interesting and can be useful.
I have a brother who moved from Barrington to 13 th and Indiana. Tells me the City is fine and he wanders through Grant Park all the time. I worked the Park Car Bt 105 in the mid nighties then went into Neighborhood Relations and Ret in 98. Would never wander around the Loop
Now what do all these cities have in common? And what's common with all these murders? Hmmm, I wonder.
If our individual police districts were their own cities we would have the several of the most violent areas in the United States. Imagine if 011, 007, 006, 010, 003, 015 were each individual cities what the homicide “rate” in those cities would be. They talk about homicide rate to make it seem that the city is safe despite the absolute fact that more people are murdered in Chicago than anywhere else in the United States. And ignorant people eat that shit up
No surprise after aggravated assault and shots fired replaced attempted murder.
You want to see some quality per capita numbers? Look up 007 or 011 census numbers against the districts homicides.
When the cities listed have a higher percentage of homicides than Chicago, you just have to look at the population numbers. Birmingham Alabama for example has a population that is 68 percent African American and 25 percent White. Every city that is rated as more dangerous than Chicago, has a higher percentage of African Americans. Chicago has a Black population of 29 percent and a white population of 45 percent, throw in a Hispanic of 28 percent. According to Hey Jackass the homicide numbers for 2021 were 798 killed. Of that 798, 81 percent were black,14.5 Hispanic and 4.5 white or other. So using Homicide rates, the higher percentage of African Americans in a US city the higher the homicide rate. I like to explain that to liberals when they use rates, drives them nuts, and of course me using honest statistics makes me racist.
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