Predicitve Analysis BS (and a wager)
This is great:
- The area 4 daily deployments came out for 01Sept and there were 22 locations in 011 where the "Predictive Analytics" unit feels that there may be issued. 22 LOCATIONS each is about 2 square blocks which covers almost the ENTIRE 11th District. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to say there is going to be a shooting in 011 tonight.
Twenty-two locations? In one District? So how many "possible locations" city-wide? Taxpayers are being gouged to the tune of $150,000-plus for this? Wow. Sounds like it's time for the "Dartboard Theory of Predictive Policing" (DaT-PP) to take effect. Throw a map of the city on the wall, toss darts at it, list findings.
*** Standing offer to the Predictive Analysis Unit or whatever J-Fled is calling you lately***
We will donate $100 to the police charity of your choice if you can predict with 100% certainty, a single homicide via your super computer program in the next three days under the following conditions:
*** Standing offer to the Predictive Analysis Unit or whatever J-Fled is calling you lately***
We will donate $100 to the police charity of your choice if you can predict with 100% certainty, a single homicide via your super computer program in the next three days under the following conditions:
- You chose one "hot spot" citywide. Pick your strongest contender. We'll give you a one block radius in all directions from your single choice (one block=660 feet...and we're drawing a proper circle on a city plat, so make it a really good choice);
- You post your choice here in the comment section - we moderate around twice a day, so we'll find it no problem;
- You simultaneously e-mail us at our contact address from your CPD e-mail address. The two time stamps will verify your prediction and the return address will verify your identity as not only CPD, but a member of the Predictive Analysis Unit. Don't worry, we won't tell J-Fled you wrote to us - we can be trusted whereas you cannot.
There it is. Plain and simple. Let's see what you've got. Deadline is Sunday, 05 September at 12:01 AM
Labels: scc responds
posted by SCC at 12:04 AM
36 Comments:
You guys are great, LMAO, over twenty years of front row seats to this shit and now reading this is like being on stage. Lets keep it up, the heat is on. I bet 15000 people hit the Hall on the 15th. Shortshanks, of course, will be 10000 miles away.
Why did they make him a civilian "director" instead of a commander? His seniority date stays the same as a director. And in one more year he'll be getting an extra bfd and 24 straight days off for furlough! Sweet.
"Dartboard Theory of Predictive Policing", AKA DaT-PP:
Thanks for the unintended flashback, SCC. My Italian Grandmother (God rest her soul), used this same term while berating me after learning that she was to become a Great Granda because I, out of wedlock, knocked-up a 19 year old waitress that I met while on this job. Her immortal wisdom is as follows:
"Ia tolda you DaT-PP would getta you in trouble".
Funny how everything old is new again...
Remember the old school predictive analysis units? The Sgts and Lts from the gang units looked at the 24hr reports, called the dist commanders as needed, had a 20 minute pow-wow and sent out the troops. Back then the gang units and dist units even liked each other and partied together. Rock on old school PAU's. You really deserved 150K plus. RIP those who are gone. They were right 99 out of 100 I'll bet. Didn't need 22 locations either.
I say go back to the pins and old maps and studythe true motives for gangs and the known retaliation spots. There are people who are good at doing this blind folded with a few computer programs. No need to spend millions on a computer model that is NOT proven to be successful by any university level.
The variables you plug into these equations are mile long!!!
And the dependent variables give you different answers everytime you add a variable!!!
District to monitor crime waves and ucr
Areas to assist in enforcement
lack of manpower means the balance between patrol and investigative services must be broken off and patrol has to weigh in more...
Meaning: dismantle TRU or GES and return them elite and knowledgeable troops back to the districts.
You control the working loads better and give the Areas the ability to " shift within".
Once the 2200+ officers are hired then you go back to the luxury of having multiple elite units that serves as investigative enforcement units.
I tell my troops at every roll call to always know your surrounding, type of gangs, what happened in the past on the beat and what to expect in the future.
Back each other up and be safe!
Please help an injured Chicago Police Officer.
You may remember the story of P.O. Densey Cole from his May 27, 2009 on duty accident.
There is a benefit for P.O. Cole on October 3, 2010.
Please go to the following website to donate:
www.denseycole.com
See the rep in your unit to purchase tickets to the event.
I will give 10k I've got. Two masters And 20 yrs give me his job if I'm wrong un fuc;;:!n believable
you will not get a response...that is my prediction...you can mail that $100 to the charity of your choice, as long as it isn't the Red Cross.
Too much college, not enough high school.
OOPS MURDER IN 011!
THIS KIDS A GENIUS.
OR IS HE JUST GOIN OFF POD LOCATION AND EXPANDING IT TO A 2 BLOCK RADIUS.
LOOK FOR FRONT PAGE ADDS ON THIS BULLSHIT! KID INVENTS MENU THEN PREDICT FUTURE WITH HIS IPHONE APP!
Has anyone seen the deployments lately? The predictive analytic group has picked one block deployments based on their super computer. There must be at least 40 deployments in Areas 1,2, and 4. We have enough to do without worrying about their worthless deployments. Send us more bodies not more deployments.
Heard that only 2 people have submitted their resume to work in the Predictive Analytic Group. If you go there you must be soft as puppy shit. Keep wasting money on a director for managing 4 people.
I heard that there was a location in 019 on the predictive analysis map. But then upon looking at it, it was just a prediction of a kitty getting shot somewhere on Clark St.
SOMEONE PLEASE TELL THE WHIZ KID AT HQ THAT 1/2 OF HIS "BOXES" HE PICKS IN 009 ARE FACTORIES IN THE STOCK YARDS.
There is a conflict in 002 and 021 between the GD's and MC's. Gangs and 021 made 2 arrests for UUW last night because they were aware of this and did some good old fashoned police work out on the streets. Guess what, the deployment sheet said nothing about this. Great job crystal balless unit. We don't need you we need more police period.
I think SCC, you should have an open post for our own "Predictive Analysis" or as Hawk Harrelson would call it "Picks to Click"...as in the clicking of the spent shell casings hitting the ground...priceless!
How about opening the challenge up to the citizens? Wouldn't it be something if they predicted it for FREE? Then winning citizen could take the 100 dollars and donate it to a fallen officer's fund.
i am in for another $100.00 SCC, this boy wonder has no clue,brett has no clothes and if would of stayed in the private sector he would be compensation by now! Another idiot getting more of "our money"!
Same crap in area 1 and 2. They assign us to a 2x2 block and tell us No shootings, so at the end of the night no honor students shot, so we did our job. Well the next day they want to know why there wasn't any activity. Well we stayed in our "box" and it was quiet. Do then they tell us to venture out a little but still keep an eye on your box, WTF. Let's see we had 18 deployments and 14 teams working, so that means teams are split up and two guys are assigned to one 2x2 area.
Let's see if they can predict what's going to happen? Either go back to one decent size box and saturate the shot out of it or put us back in the districts as rapids so we can help out the way overworked beat copper.
But that won't happen because the powers that be could care less about back logs or Raps, all they are doing is demoralizing the largest number of 1st responders we have.
Until we get a real mayor and superintendent that will hire the couple thousand police, which we are already budgeted for, things will just keep going downhill.
There were 58 or so locations in Area 1 one day last week. Tell me how do we "focus" our resources when they give you 58 locations. It's like "The Emperor Has No Clothes". No one has the guts to tell them how ridiculous that is. Area 4 has the same problem. Most of the locations seem to be "predictive analytics". This strategy, in my opinion, is just adding mass confusion and diluting our limited resources.
Didn't the military and the feds learn after 9-11 that it takes a majority of human intelligence and not computer geek and technology to stop the threats?
Yes, the did, but some Shortshanks hack needed a spot and we all have to pay for it.
And why does this unit need 2 directors making $150k(the other one has 5 years on the job)??????
"Remember the old school predictive analysis units? The Sgts and Lts from the gang units looked at the 24hr reports, called the dist commanders as needed, had a 20 minute pow-wow and sent out the troops."
You've just described the problem. The old school is gone because the are gone.
While there are still experienced, talented old school blue shirts, the Weis/Masters/Daley administration has forced out all the experienced & talented top brass, in favor of college-educated, low-time people that were never good street cops to begin with.
This brain drain has effectively neutralized CPD.
The trick is balancing the two. This administration has totally missed that mark.
I worked in 011 about 15 years ago and no longer live in chicago.
I will guess -- area of chicago and harding
old retired guy
This is all a big fuckin' joke ..... Right !
All I do is monitor the mayhem on my scanner. My money is on the 6700 block of Justine. Don't need some predictive analytical bullshit taxpaying waste of a computer program to figure it out. How you men and women in blue put up with this crap I'll never understand. God bless each of you for what you do.
is there an iphone app for this? then i can predict when someone will walk up on me on michigan ave and steal my iphone4....
4400 w jackson
05SEP10
0145 HOURS
"This strategy, in my opinion, is just adding mass confusion and diluting our limited resources.
9/02/2010 08:36:00 AM
Like TRU and MSF. But what does a beat cop know anyways.
DOES THE "CRYSTAL BALL" GO UP TO THE 023RD DISTRICT???? SHOOTING THERE YESTERDAY......OH LET ME GUESS, IT DOESN'T COUNT!!!!!
When ws the last time a computer made a pinch or got a confession?
Just asking.
$150K for the asshole in charge, countless $$$ for everyone who've been clouted onto it.
As I was driving home tonight through the Harrison District, I noticed cars parked on certain corners with their lights on. Is this predictive analytics? You can kick me in the balls and my balls will predictively swell up. Rocket science at work here. I'm just a civilian driving through, enjoy your blog.
Predictive bullshit. Jody time to take down the main tent. Your circus will be leaving town very soon. NOBODY wants you here!! The Gangbangers don't even want you around. Da Mayor is up for election and you have become a big liability to him now. Adios big head and enjoy your retirement.
Hey retired John, Good game. I want to play. I'm retired also for a few couple years and don't pay the highest retail tax in the country anymore. My prediction is that not only will some promising young, honor student, trying to make it work in a rough neighborhood, 75-7600 block of East End, be shot by an unk subject through no fault of his own, but almost simultaneously an eerily similar young man will be shot in the 11000-11200 block of south Edbrooke. The same but different. Far away but almost close. See, eerie.
TOO FUNNY, I ALMOST CHOKED ON MY DONUT... LMAO!!!
Just the other day I was at HQ and decided to explored the fifth floor where the so call predictive analysis unit is. This is what I came across...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2NhwAG-ilw
(copy and paste on your browser)
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