Sunday, August 17, 2014

It's the Crime Stupid

As we've said so many times, it isn't the crime stats per se - it's the perception of crime:
  • Violent crime in Chicago has been on the decline for two decades, yet as Mayor Rahm Emanuel looks to re-election next year, the scourge of shootings and gang murders still defines the conversation in many neighborhoods across the South and West sides.

    Part ugly reality, part perception, the rate of violence in impoverished, mostly black areas of the city has helped shape negative impressions of the first-term mayor as ineffective when it comes to problems afflicting the urban poor, a new Chicago Tribune poll has found.

    Voters disapprove of Emanuel's job performance on crime by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio — 30 percent approve, while 57 percent disapprove. That's a drop in support of 15 percentage points from a year ago, when 45 percent approved of the mayor's efforts and 47 percent disapproved.
Crime might be down according to McNumberFudger's bullshit reclassification schemes, and homicides are trending down (2012 being the outlier). But the appearance of crime in formerly "safe" areas of the city and the deliberate media blackout on crimes of opportunity (wildings) downtown lends itself to a perception of "unsafe." Combine that with the more brazen child murders this year and Rahm isn't looking like a law-and-order mayor by any stretch of the imagination.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

OT:On this date 1991 CHA Police Officer Jimmie Lamar Haynes died of his gunshot wound caused by a snipers bullet at the Robert Taylor Homes.The force may not be around but you are still remembered.Rest in peace brother!

8/17/2014 12:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"But the appearance of crime in formerly "safe" areas of the city and the deliberate media blackout on crimes of opportunity (wildings) downtown lends itself to a perception of "unsafe." -- SCC

Lends itself to the REALITY of "unsafe." Not like there is a db fulla holes bleeding all over the pavement, one guy sees it and the next one doesn't, according to personal opinion of things.

Both have to walk around it...

"When you contact A.R. Leak, be assured that you will never have to deal with a recording. There is a live person available 24 hours per day, to be of assistance in your time of need."


8/17/2014 12:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...homicides are trending down (2012 being the outlier)..."

Well, Jesus, that's a big sample.


How about "trending down from five minutes ago?"

CompStat = BullShit.

8/17/2014 12:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I understand they had another night in which the natives were restless in Ferguson.

8/17/2014 01:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rham needs better polling numbers. Maybe he should strip off his shirt, mount a pony and flex his pecks ala Putin!

8/17/2014 01:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The code word to gain access to the next compstat meeting?

Crime is down


8/17/2014 02:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How ironic. Rahm wanted to be mayor of Chicago presumably to prepare him for national aspirations. Instead, this same city is destroying his image along with those same aspirations.

8/17/2014 03:33:00 AM  
Blogger The Keesing Bandit said...

I saw him on an episode of Food Trucks last night.

He looked so mayoral.

Gotta go. I'm hungry.

Now, kees me you fool!!!!

8/17/2014 05:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Crime is down ?

8/17/2014 06:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Related topic: From one concealed carry holder to any others out there...

Rahm could really use a good news story of a few concealed carry holders doing foolish things. Who knows, he might even stage a couple situations just to distract attention from the reality of things in Chicago. Is that out of the realm of possibility???

All conceal carry folks out there please be careful. Please use deadly force ONLY when you have no other choice. And shoot ONLY when you're certain you're going to hit your target.

8/17/2014 08:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Please? McSupt said early on that homicides are not a good indicator of violence, it is shootings - holes in people - as he put it, that matters. Well, look at the stats directly from the CPD website and you will see that BOTH shooting incidents and people shot are both UP! How can he keep doing press conferences and proclaiming his initiatives are working (lowest homicides in decades)? He himself said that a homicide is a lucky shooting, or lack of a homicide can be due to better medical treatments. Can 1 press person ask him, "which of your initiatives have failed if shootings are up and the number of people shot are up?"

8/17/2014 09:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Napolean and McFailure must be terribly dizzy from all the spinning they've been doing about crime reduction and adequate police staffing. Apparently, according to these polls, it's not fooling the sheeple anymore.
What can Napolean and McFailure do??
Spin harder, faster etc. The truth has no place in their agenda.

8/17/2014 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guys, give Rahm a break. Just because he wears 16 Husky size clothes, doesn't mean he's a juvenile - he's got grown up issues before him. He's got some real big, ugly hurdles ahead of him - Karen Lewis being one of them.

8/17/2014 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What does it say when 30% of those polled think Rahm's doing an OK job on crime? 30%??? Honestly, how can the number be anything besides zero? So nearly a third of those polled suffer from incurable optical rectumitis? It's no wonder the city is in trouble.

8/17/2014 03:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Rham needs better polling numbers. Maybe he should strip off his shirt, mount a pony and flex his pecks ala Putin!"

8/17/2014 01:26:00 AM

...and make a Crimea-style move, get an armored column rolling, try to forcibly annex Lake and Porter counties for more runways and s__t.

Now THAT would be something to see.

Indiana law --

"Article 1 - Section 32 - Bearing arms

"The people shall have a right to bear arms, for the defense of themselves and the State."

8/17/2014 03:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still have the blue ribbon with his name and star on it..... If your former Chapd Thanks for reminding us. ....4429 s. Federal.... not many people remember those days

8/17/2014 10:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess now that Rahm is no longer affiliated with the Obama administration, national media isn't covering for him or his city. NBC national news did a week of stories on Chicago's violent crime epidemic, and "Chicago" is now used in conversation the way "Detroit" was in the 1970s.

8/18/2014 09:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Supt, if your initiatives are working with the number of police officers you have, wouldn't they work a lot faster if you had more officers implementing your brilliant initiatives? "One lost life is too many", remember saying that? Just asking...

8/18/2014 02:22:00 PM  
Anonymous JAFO said...

To all those intrigued by Crystal Ball Analytics - a real conference with real experts is being held Sept. 4th at the UofC's Gleacher Center

Not all of the speakers are listed yet, but there should be something on Analytics for Crime Statistics (I would think?)


8/18/2014 03:42:00 PM  

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