Note the Weasel Word
- A new election poll shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel with a 10-percentage-point lead among African-American voters.
The poll of 1,003 registered voters, conducted for the Chicago Defender and WVON radio, has Emanuel at 46 percent and Jesus “Chuy” Garcia at 36 percent, with 18 percent undecided.
Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted March 25-26, with a mix of about 60 percent landline phones and 40 percent mobile phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
See that word "registered?" That's a hedge for the polling people. Obviously, they don't want the opinions of non-registered voters and the registration period has since closed. But the best polls, the more-likely-to-be-accurate polls, the polls that correctly predicted the 2012 presidential election to the dismay of Republicans everywhere, were polls of likely voters.
We might be completely wrong, but we just don't seem Rahm having the emotionally invested voter in his camp right now. Especially the black voter what with all the school closings, unemployment numbers, and shot/wounded tallies throughout the minority communities.
And as we just saw a few weeks ago, the undecided voters break for the other guy at something approaching 70-to-80%. This is still a race, despite what the papers want you to believe.
We might be completely wrong, but we just don't seem Rahm having the emotionally invested voter in his camp right now. Especially the black voter what with all the school closings, unemployment numbers, and shot/wounded tallies throughout the minority communities.
And as we just saw a few weeks ago, the undecided voters break for the other guy at something approaching 70-to-80%. This is still a race, despite what the papers want you to believe.
Labels: elections
posted by SCC at 12:13 AM
19 Comments:
This poll caught a bunch of cpd in it. Three of my friends (I feel so left out) got calls and they COULD NOT register their 'push this button for Garcia' choice. It kept putting them back into the question cycle, until two of them pushed the Rahm button. One of them just hung up.
Like the computer guys say - garbage in, garbage out.
I don't vote demorats, let alone progressives.
You are absolutely correct SCC. Rahm is attempting to suppress the Chuy voters with these Comsat type numbers that show him leading by a mystical wide margin. He is in essence buying this election with a huge bankroll that Chuy cannot match.
Something is wrong when a punk like Rahm can buy an election. Do Not vote for Rahm. He is no good.
I have never seen the papers so in the tank for a candidate in an election. Article after article shamelessly advocating for Rahm. Pity. I once subscribed to both. Now I only miss them when I need to start a fire in the fireplace.
One of the most famous photos of the whole Harry Truman Presidency, is Harry holding a copy of the Chicago Tribune announcing that Thomas Dewey had beaten him for the Presidency. At the time the Tribune polled people who had telephones, back then those were land lines. The situation today may prove to be similar, because back then the poor and young could not afford land lines. And today the young and poor have cell phones. So any phone survey that is not specific to cell phones will be off the mark. Sorry Tribune, YOUR guy has not won yet. As Mary Ann Ahern pointed out yesterday, incumbent Cong. Cantor was 34 pts ahead, when he got whipped!"G"
Did they call "sail" phones or just land lines?
Who is being polled? All the people I know are voting for Chuy!
When Obama was running for President, all the Latinos joined black community and embraced "change" and supported the idea of having a "darker" president instead of the status quo. A lot of Latinos (some of my family member for sure) believed that having a black (or half white) president would open the doors to more Latinos in office.
Now that is our turn to have a first ever Latino (Mexican) Mayor, will the black community have our backs like we had theirs???
Answer is FUCK NO
Let's call 1,000 Gangster Disciples, Insane Unknowns, Latin Kings, Two-Sixers, Vice Lords, etc..etc. and ask
"If the election was held today...."
lol
The one percenters won't let rham lose. The Hispanics don't have the numbers yet. A lot of blacks are like sgt. Milton, they didnt get the memo and will stay home
No it's not.
These polls are Bullshit! Who are they polling? Nobody in my area thats for sure!
sounds like the wealthy don't like mexicans
Getting calls every night from area codes I have never heard of.Figured it was pollsters, so I answered.Told everyone of them "undecided".Kinda pisses em off.
Rahm still has Obama's endorsement and I do not trust anyone that is being endorsed by the revs, they endorsed Rauner and he is cutting benefits to kids and making sure the minimum wage increase is a decrease by streatching it out for YEARS! Rahm seems the lesser of two evils at this point.
I only understand statistics to a certain degree fwiw, but the sample size used by the Tribune Poll seemed a bit small (700 definite voters). I agree SCC, I think the race is going to be a LOT closer and these 'fatal' numbers might be enough to dissuade the casual voter from going to the polls, giving Rahm a slightly comfortable victory. If a more accurate poll were released, Rahm might still win, but not by much. Energy seems to be fading out of Chuy's camp.
The print and TV/radio media are all in the tank for Raccoon Eyes. I just have a feeling the race will be very very close and Garcia will win. I have no idea what kind of mayor Chuy will be but it has to be better than what we have.
Polls are Bullshit.
They are from the time when people had 1 phone line with a 20 foot cord attached.
How many cells phone does each household have now?
When do you tell stranger on the phone who you are voting for.
And the poll is invalid once the person states what candidate they are calling for.
Good day this is Mr. unemployed and i am calling on behalf of RAhmm Emmanuel. CMON!
The media would have a better reading if they put both these hack piks on facebook and told everyone to like 1.
The mayor is a lying P.O.S. His entire campaign is a lie, he claims to be financial genius. Go to www.bondbuyer.com and look up Chicago bonding issues. Hundreds of millions lost! and just like the compulsive gambler he is, scrambling around to cover losses, there goes more millions. He can barely keep his finger in the dike until election day. Wall St. gave him failing grade. Fitch and Moody's issuing downgrades too. Wall St. is not snowed by Rahm's campaign commercials. They look at the numbers.
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