Low/No Bail UPDATE

We have been sent an article by a couple of sharp-eyed readers. It seems the Tribune actually did publish a piece on the body count attached to low/no bail the other day:

• Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans for months has defended the bail reform he ordered by citing an analysis produced by the office he runs.
  
  His report, released in May, noted that Chicago saw no increase in violent crime after judges began implementing those reforms by reducing or eliminating monetary bail for many pretrial defendants. Far more of these defendants were released from custody, yet only “a very small fraction” were charged afterward with a new violent offense, the report states.
  
  But a Tribune investigation has found flaws in both the data underlying Evans’ report and the techniques he used to analyze it — issues that minimize the number of defendants charged with murder and other violent crimes after being released from custody under bail reform.

But the Tribune seems to have memory-holed the article (removed it from the main page) in a rather expedient fashion since it reflects rather badly on the Machine and pretty much proves Judge Evans a bald-faced liar:

• One central conclusion of Evans’ analysis was that only 147 felony defendants released from custody in the 15 months after bail reform went on to be charged with new violent crimes, or 0.6% of the total. He has called this a “rare” occurrence.
  
  But Evans’ definition of violent crime, while acceptable to criminologists under some circumstances, was limited to six offenses and excluded numerous others, including domestic battery, assault, assault with a deadly weapon, battery, armed violence and reckless homicide.
  
  Hundreds of these charges were filed against people released after bail reform took effect, according to data Evans provided after the Tribune filed a public records petition to the Illinois Supreme Court. If those charges were included in the analysis, the total would be at least four times higher, the Tribune found.

Gee, a Chicago politico using manipulated data to draw the completely wrong conclusion. Who wouldn't have thunk it?

And get a load of this bullshit:

• In an earlier interview with the Tribune, Evans said: "My heart goes out to the families who’ve been victimized by crime.”
  
  But, he added, “The only way you can guarantee that no one will commit a crime while their case is pending, and that no one will miss a court date while their case is pending, is to keep them all in jail. … That’s not the solution.”

Um, that's EXACTLY the solution dumbass. And you're victimizing the most vulnerable members of the community all over again with your crap.

And we were contacted by one of the authors of a study that seems to show that crime actually goes up after more offenders are released on low/no bail provisions. Here's their article - with links to their scientific studies:

• In a study posted on SSRN today, my colleague Professor Richard Fowles and I explore the public safety implications of recent Cook County bail reforms. We review the Cook County Chief Judge's study of these reforms, which sanguinely asserted that as more defendants were released pretrial no additional crimes resulted. We believe that, properly assessed, the study's own data suggests a significant increase in crimes as a result of the changes. Our conclusions may have broader implications about the public safety dangers of bail reform.

Remember, these are professors, so they're way smarter than Cook County politicians and judges.