Homicide Numbers - A Theory
Based upon Friday's Sun Times article which reads in part:
Forty-one people were killed in Chicago in May -- just two fewer than during the same month last year, officials said.
The numbers of homicides in March and April this year also were about the same as last year: 37 and 36 in March and April 2005, respectively, compared with 34 and 37 in the same months this year.
Over the first five months this year, there have been 155 murders, compared with 160 at the same time in 2005.
Presenting the Theory of SCC (copyright 2006, SCC Enterprises, All Rights Reserved, hands off all HQ leeches!):
- We have reached a plateau - or a floor if you will. 2.3 million people (or whatever the number is according to census figures and illegals hiding out in town) cannot live in close proximity to one another without experiencing about 450 killings a year, regardless of what the police do. We have almost two and a half years of statistics to base this on and two and a half years re-alignment of the tact/gang, SOS and TRU units. The only thing that might contribute to a lower rate is (A) to make up the shortages in patrol or (B) advances in medical care. As medicine is always marching forward, (B) is a much more likely course than (A).
Any corollaries to our Theory?
posted by SCC at 12:03 AM
26 Comments:
There are more people being released from prison.S aturation of drug areas is forcing dope peddlers to find income elsewhere,i.e. robberies. When a dope dealer does a stick-up in, let's say 011, the results are sometimes a "homicide". Maybe he's attempted to hit a dope tip. Maybe he's attempted to rob an old guy that happens to be packin'. I think we have plateaued (spl ).
On a seperate not, belated happy 1st year SCC !!!
sorry about the above missing letters. Kids, juice and key boards make for sticky keys.
The Homicide rate would be a lot higher if it weren't for the AREA 2 GUN TEAM getting all those guns off the street. They are the best. HAIL TO THE GUN TEAM OF AREA 2. Thank your lucky stars that the AREA 2 GUN TEAM IS HERE FOR CHICAGO.
Live in 020, I'm too lazy to research your comments. What did you say?
"Homicide Numbers - A Theory"
Hmmm, interesting theory. Why then does Canada have a murder rate that is less than 20% that of the US? In other words, the murder rate in the US is over 5 times as high as in Canada and Canada has a number of cities with population over one million, Toronto for instance has a population of 4.5 million.
That's murder rate per 100,000 population, not total murders.
In 2004 Canada reported 622 murders, in the WHOLE country. (population, 30 million) Chicago alone (population under 3 million) has beaten Canada many times.
So large numbers of people can live together in close proximity without murdering many hundreds or thousands of each other.
Just not here.
Hint: I worked CHA yesterday, go spend 8 hours there for an idea of why the murder rate is so high here. 450 murders in this city is the plateau? It seems the folks up north have a different definition of plateau.
Canada's Murder Rate Fell to Lowest in Three Decades in 2003
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's homicide rate fell to a three-decade low last year, as fewer people were murdered in the entire country than in Chicago alone.
Police recorded 548 murders, or 1.73 for every of 100,000 Canada's 31.6 million inhabitants, down from 582, or a rate of 1.86, in 2002, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. Chicago, with a population of 2.87 million, had 598 murders in 2003, according to U.S. Department of Justice data.
Now why can't our "Canadians" be as peaceful as their brothers up north?
Just watch the channel 7 video from w few posts down, right at the end of it the is a hummer that drives by that is painted in CPD colors. What the hell is this thing and why the fuck did the department waste more money????
According to ret. Army Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, an expert on killing, homicide rates are directly affected by the advances in medical science. That's why during his "Bullet Proof Mind" he stresses that we have to look at the Agg. Assault rate - the number of times one person is TRYING to kill another. Overall, I believe that the city's Agg. Assault rate is up about 35% over last year.
We had a shooting in 025 about a month ago in which the "victim" was shot multiple times with the resultant huge loss of blood. According to the paramedics, "he wasn't going to make it to the hospital". Fast forward to 3 weeks later when a fella walks into the desk to report a traffic crash. When he gives the Officer his name, the desk Sgt. who was on the scene of the original shooting hears him and says " weren't you killed over on Monitor a few weeks ago"? The guy says "yeah, but when I got to the hospital, they brought me back"!
So Grossman may be onto something. The hospital took an out and out homicide and turned it into an agg batt!
Re: International Homicide and Violent Crime Rates (excluding wartorn and/or Third World countries).
Note the correlation between a extremely low homicide and overall violent crime rate in relatively homogeneously populated nations like the U.K., Australia and Canada.
But then again, unlike those nations, the U.S.A. "celebrates DIVERSITY" with the "politically correct" liberal mainstream national news media and cowardly politicians who are in denial.
God forbid if highly vocal demagogues and their parasite supporters accuse these liberal institutions as being "racist".
Unless the U.S. follows the example of Australia, this great nation is doomed. The relatively few criminal homicides which occur "Down Under" occur between so-called friends and acquaintances, NOT TOTAL STRANGERS!
Don't mean to be "Debbie Downer" but think about the inevitable downfall of the U.S.A. It's just a matter of time. Time for a desperately needed REALITY CHECK, America! Even then, it will probably be too late.
"Multiculturalism" and "DIVERSITY" will ultimately destroy the America we once knew. The great, unique and noble "melting pot" experiment will prove to be a cataclymic failure.
Grossman isn't on to anything except denying the obvious. Murder rates are directly related to the number of negroe's, puerto ricans, and mexicans living anywhere. If you factor out there contribution to the murder rate we would be living in one big mismanaged Barrington. You might even be able to send your kids to a public school and find them doing more than pushing around a beat car one day. How many white on white murders did we have last year, or over the last decade? Chicago is on it's way to becoming one big Fillmore. Oy Vey! What is the city paying Grossman to teach security guard wannabe's?
If you think that those numbers come close to the "real" numbers, you are sadly mistaken. How about adding in the Fentanyl OD's? Yes they are bust outs, but it is still a homocide. Now I dont want some SGT wannabe quoting the department's definition that they spent hours studying for. Use your monkey-brain and think for yourself for a change.
Go work a mission team and see how the LT "skews" the numbers....."Well, lemme see hear for a minute, I dont think getting stuck in the chest with a carving fork by family is a murder....lets call it an accident [axident]"
Try handling a job when you call the dicks and the SGT says to call him later he is busy---yeah right, right in the middle of a spades game.
Can you give us the R.D.# on the domestic incident in which the victim was stabbed in the chest by a family member with a carving knife?
I'd like to check it out.
9:16 has it right, but the numbers would be explained almost entirely by the first named group alone. Demographic studies recently showed their numbers in NYC are down over the last few years, and the homicide rate continues to fall. I wonder if they have more of them than we do?
I think the "plateau" comment is right, but for different reasons. The downtown area is getting gentrified with mostly peaceful people, while the ghetto is still pushing outwards towards 016, the west end of 008 the remaining middle class neighborhoods like Mt. Greenwood and Hedgewisch on the South side.
If gentrification extends along the south lakeshore all the way out, and maybe up to 63rd street in remaining areas east of the Ryan and 55th street west of the Ryan, and maybe up to Kedzie on the West from 55th north through the west side, I'd venture to guess that homicides will be reduced by another third or more.
Get rid of the remaining public housing and section 8 concentrations, and half or more of the south and west sides will be a Yuppie Disneyland.
There is no doubt about it. Lives are being saved in the trauma units. Years ago, the only top-of-the-line trauma was ward 32 at CCH.
When wagons were transporting GSW victims to "the nearest", they would eventually take to the victim to the morgue.
It was a well known fact that any officer you asked would say, "If I get shot, take me to ward 32". They saved numerous lives.
The current trauma units are having almost the same success.
Without them,the homicide rate would be in the 800-900's or more.
Don't credit TRU, gun teams, saturation teams. Credit the Doctors and nurses at thr trauma units.
Agg. Assaults are unsuccessfull homicides as a result of bad aim & better medicine
It has been many many years since the UK or Australia were anything other than a racially diverse melting pot themselves. Australia is full of Asians and the UK is full of Africans, Indians, Asians, Jamaicans and every other race and creed. In London, whites are probably a minority and they have lots of public housing....They do not have a big murder problem because they do not have guns everywhere!!!!
Okay, 10:35 AM, for purposes of arguendo, let's assume you are correct.
Let's immediately repeal the Second Amendment and order all citizens (including incorrigible criminals) to immediately surrender the estimated half BILLION handguns in circulation, the overwhelming majority of which are possessed by decent, law-abiding citizens.
Only one percent of the Australian population is comprised of native Aboriginal minorities, most of whom can be found in the Outback. Occasionally, your only sightings of Aborigines in the cities are those who are playing the didgeridoo and selling boomerangs for tourists or lying about in a self-induced alcoholic stupor.
You will find that the only substantial minority in Australia is of Asian descent, particularly Southeast Asian--generally a very industrious, law-abiding people.
As far as any radical Islamic groups in the Commonwealth, you need only check with the recent mandates of Prime Minister John Howard and lawmakers in Canberra: If your Islamic beliefs encroach upon and conflict with our laws and culture, it's time for you to leave Australia.
Oz does NOT fuck around!
Perhaps an extended visit to Australia might change your anti-gun brainstorm for the U.S.A.
In the USA, "the horses (guns) fled the barn a long time ago"...and they're NOT coming back. Not even a million "Area 2 Gun Teams" could even make a dent.
Wake up from your daydreams and let's keep it real. To do less and appease the highly vocal ultraliberal element amongst us who incessantly cry out "RACISM" will only escalate the inexorable American Armageddon.
"...out of my cold, dead hands", motherfuckers!
Why "REMEMBER THE ALAMO"?
Mexico will "conquer" the USA without firing a shot!
Comprendo, gringo?
Mexico can't even conquer Mexico. Most of their leaders and presidents have been of European descent since Prince Maximillian and Princess Theresa. It will always be that way with those three foot tall Mayans.
SCC, New York has slightly more murders than us, and yet is over twice the size. Get black "leaders" to do something for their people, and the rate will fall. IE. support a family structure-someone should mention having a fatherless life (or sharing a "dad" with 15 other kids and baby's momas) is not helpful to success. Hopelessness breads crime. Oh, also saying "where were the police" whenever a murder happens, but then refusing to be a witness. Will the liberal media, mayor, Jesse Jackoff or anyone else step up? If they really cared about blacks, they would. But they don't and we suffer. If we put a realistic and brave mayor in who could give it straight (Guiliani) and get things done instead of just going along for the ride- the crime rate would fall much, much further.
Let the animal kill each other. Who cares.
I never suggested that guns should be taken away from anybody!!! I simply meant that the high murder count is due mainly to gun availability. There are many other social reasons such as drug and alcohol abuse, extremely low educational standards, lack of opportunity among the poor trying to survive in massive ghettoes etc. etc. The fact is that race is not a reason for murder!!
It can of coure be said that the main offenders in violent crime in the USA are black. It can also be said that the victims of most violent crimes in the USA are also black.
That has a lot more to do with the reasons I have cited than race alone.
There is crime everywhere in the world and the same reasons can be given everywhere. Drugs, alcohol, lack of education, poverty, segregation of the poor into ghettos etc. etc. etc.
I never gave a solution to the problem nor did I say anything anti-American. Unlike many on this board, I am not a know-everything young cop who abuses people in the ghetto and expects his family to be treated better than he treats others himself!!!
blah..blah..blah..blah.., but whatever we do we can't mention the racial component. Beacause remember what happened to Jimmy "the greek" or Howard Cossell!
Blacks will always be victims, because the liberals what it that way!
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