Statistical Oops
Any math majors out there want to check these numbers?
- OT: the media needs to understand this so they stop buying into the Superintendent's bullshit of how he has reduced the homicide rate from 66% back in March.
Just pulled the Crime Stats from the CPD website:
As of 9/16/12 we had 382 murders compared to 303 murders for the same time frame in 2011, which is an increase of 79 murders and represents a 26% increase.
The latest stats were just posted and as of 12/2/12 we had 484 murders compared to 399 murders for the same time frame in 2011, which is an increase of 85 murders (6 more dead bodies to the previous increase) but represents a 21% increase. Only the RATE of the increase slowed, but the increase remains. There has been no decrease!
The supt keeps using this % as proof his initiatives are working...but the number of bodies dropping is going in the other direction. When will the media grow some balls and call him out on this?
Remember, CompStat is the deliberate manipulation of numbers to achieve a political result. Nothing more.
Labels: from the comments, stats
posted by SCC at 1:01 AM
24 Comments:
Wait until January 1st, when he starts with a clean slate... ....and March is 40 degrees, and not 80 degrees.
He's going to see a 50% drop in homicides AND will claim his initiates are working... never mind it's the weather and a mathematical concept of "regression to the mean."
He better get back on his meds before it become apparent that he's totally loosing it, or he's always been a fucking idiot.
Look, nothing up my sleeve, hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!
Bullwinkle, that trick never works!
Why do you state the media needs to know? They know, they just want to go along with the controlling interests, that is all. It is just like thinking the Feds will magically come in with big corruption investigations- it is not going to happen.
old retired guy
by "omitting" certain factors involved
Tiny & The Marksman can turn the #'s any way they want. certain people know the real facts.
like the E/R doctors that try to patch up this mess day and night
the ambulance people and the E/T's on the scene most of all the parents i wonder how their #'s "jive" with them? i've asked the slum-times and the trashbune why the FBI laughs at CPD statistics
never received a response
It is true. If the initiatives were working, we would have been decreasing the body count, let's say from an increase of 79, down to an increase of 70. That would represent some type of accomplishment with an improvement of 9 bodies. The numbers above represent the 'rate' of increase compared to last years number (increase of 79 divided by 303= 26%) and (increase of 85 divided by 399= 21%). Obviously the lower numbers in the beginning of the year cause larger fluctuations in the % rates (we are up 85 bodies for a 21% increase now, but early in the year we were up 8 murders, 20 vs 12, for a 67% increase). Basically, the comment 'decrease in the increase' isn't an actual decrease in the rising count, it is a decrease in how fast the increase is still growing. What he should have said is "my initiatives use to really suck, now they just suck".
Spin Doctors earning their money. Nothing more.
Compstat is also a vehicle used to beat up and humiliate various Commanders not in favor with the narcissist in charge.
I can't think of a single good thing to say about this nonsense. Patterson put a memo out about 'praising in public, correst in private', Maybe he should send McSteroids a copy.
The propaganda machine will always find a way to get the numbers they want, despite what they are really.
Anonymous said...
Look, nothing up my sleeve, hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!
Bullwinkle, that trick never works!
12/15/2012 05:01:00 AM
It does when you control the media
The crucial figure is the murder rate, i.e., the numbers of murders per unit time which in this case is a month. And the Chicago murder rate keeps increasing.
The number of murders in a month divided by the total number of murders for the year is absolutely meaningless. It starts out at 100% in January and decreases throughout the year since the denominator, the total number of murders, is always increasing. Using the same calculation your pay is always decreasing even if it stays the same.
The gen pop doesn't understand history, geography or civics; they'll never understand statistics and it's manipulation.
McJerseyshore is so arrogant just like Rahm. It's caused by being at the top of the food chain with no one else to answer to. I would love to see McJerseyshore at one of his own Compstat meetings. He is not a great speaker by any measure. I can't wait til they are both gone but you know-be careful what you wish for.
Those screaming the loudest usually have the least to say. McStandardDeviation would get his ass handed to him in any one of 50 companies here in Chicago by a statistical intern.
He better get back on his meds before it become apparent that he's totally loosing it, or he's always been a fucking idiot.
Wow.
former number cruncher here:
Tomato Sack/McCompStat and their phony numbers are a comedy act. the Feds should do a little addition/subtraction of their own. are we approaching point where the defrauding of Chicago citizens becomes interesting to them? what more do these two idiots have to do to merit charges?
Statistical "oops"?
This is deliberate.
Just change the classification like in 016. Burglaries can be either thefts from buildings or criminal damage to property. Keeps the numbers down.
Dead is dead. Lies don't bring em back!
McFailure talks out of both sides of his mouth.
Part of the problem is the stats guys really don't know what they are doing. Several years ago our district manager had a go-around with them. They insisted they were right, until she pretty much told them to get a piece of paper and write it down. Only then did they realize they made the formula in their spreadsheet incorrectly.
Oops-wonder how many bosses had their asses handed to them due to bad math over the years.
One way to fix it is to just post the body count. Last week we were up 79 bodies, this week we are up 75 bodies, etc... People can figure it out from there.
Anyone who has taken a statistics class knows you can manipulate the numbers however you want.
Any PO, Det or summary officer that reclassifies cases because they think they are helping think again.
PO's that won't give someone a report because its a waste of time, those BS numbers matter.
Det's in 009 reclassified some jobs to make the numbers look good. It got them less Det's for next year. 003 Dist writes more paper, they got more Dicks. Nobody gets arrested but more guys to follow up on shit.
Wonder why the Det's class has been delayed for 2-3 months. They are still looking at how many they really need.
The D Unit is in a state of flux trying to figure out how many guys should be assigned to what oversight office. Not enough violent guys, too many in property. Buts that what jersey shore wanted. Remember the "Broken window"theory. Stop the minor stuff and you stop the killings.
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