Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Again, Confusing Stats

From the Sun Times:
  • Three men are dead and at least 28 other people wounded from gun violence across the city since Friday night.

That was the Monday report - sounds like a mess of a weekend.

But here's the Tribune writing about Sunday night:

  • At least six people were shot across the city overnight, including a targeted attack this morning in the Marquette Park neighborhood, Chicago police said.

    The night of shootings follow a violent weekend that saw dozens wounded and seven killed...

So who has the correct definition of "weekend" according to the police stats? Seven dead sounds a bit more serious and three - 133% more serious. And if accurate, it made up the July shortage versus 2011 in one weekend.

Twenty-eight shot sounds like a bigger number than six shot overnight, but even six a night is turning out to be an average for Chicago.

And that six overnight doesn't count the triple shooting on the west side Monday afternoon.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just remember what Mcstupid says. We are seeing a decrease in the increase of shootings. And now it appears we are seeing a decrease in the reporting of the increase of murders.

7/24/2012 12:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More on stats..

I found this story on the tribune site this morning. Came back about an hour later and couldn't find it..But the LAtimes has it so I thought Id share it.

The spin and false assumptions are amazing.


Crime is down -- and so is gun ownership


"The decline in gun ownership began some years earlier, according to data from Gallup and the General Social Survey, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. New York University political scientist Patrick Egan charted the decline in a recent blog post.


Basically we have these people doing a survey asking other people if they have a gun in their home and if so what kind is it and how many do they have?? Hahaha.

Some person that you don't know calls you up asking about what valuables you have in your home -- what are you going to tell them?

Oh they do point out though:

As Egan notes, the percentage of Americans who report owning a pistol or shotgun, the weapons most often used in crime, is now down to 1 in 5, about half what it was in the 1970s.

Of course, hardened criminals aren’t likely to respond to the GSS survey, so there’s probably some under-reporting going on. But that was true 30 or 40 years ago, too, and isn’t likely to have affected the overall trend."


So none of the criminals wised up?

There couldn't possible be other factors why people today may not tell you that they have a gun in the house like they did 30 years ago right? How about Obama and the threat to the 2nd amendment!? Pretty much a false assumption in that last para.

Anyways, there's all kinds of charts and graphs and numbers tossed out in that link to convince the reader everything is just fine.

What timing for the election eh?

Nevertheless, let me point out a few things.

1. The survey ends nicely at 2010

2. Try looking up the FBI background check numbers instead of doing a survey. How conveniently that FBI data that is currently climbing at 20% rate is left off this discussion as are the conceal carry laws with respect to the crime data.

The FBI says background checks have doubled since 2006.

3. Firearm orders to Smith and Wesson are surging. Google it! As are the orders for Strum Ruger which stopped taking orders for a time because they sold everything that they can produce up until Dec 2012.

I find it so curious that this report comes out from the University of Ill. just prior to election. I'm not buying what they're selling. Check it out.

7/24/2012 01:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So looking at the low side of numbers, two slow weekends in Chicago = a movie theater in Colorado, why isn't that national news?

7/24/2012 02:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Welcome to Homicide said...

Why does the CPD have the worst murder clearance rate (only 17%) among U.S. cities with populations over 500,000?

Odds are 5 to 1 you can get away with murder in Chicago. Once again, local media is in on the cover-up. They never report about murder clearance rates. Why?

7/24/2012 05:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Weekend, Daily, Mid-Weekly, Early Week, Pre-Weekend?????

Hey Rahm and McFluffer, you are not fooling anyone with this crap!

7/24/2012 06:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's remember that the weekend killings include only those caused by gunfire. If a person is stabbed, beatem to death or dies of previous wounds McComStat doesn't like to include those numbers in the totals. It's a way to make the numbers work better for him.

7/24/2012 06:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Law-Abiding Chicagoan said...

5:17 AM


Why is Illinois the only state in the nation that refuses to legislate concealed carry for law-abiding citizens?

Are the other 49 states misguided?

I think not.

7/24/2012 07:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

young democrats shooting each other down like dogs on the mean streets of chicago
most have no foid card or registered guns
foid and gun registration is another TAX on the working man
looks like $1,000,000 pay off to cease fire is working , no more protests , now rev louie is organizin to get some free money
no more money from ghadafi

7/24/2012 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will it be too hot near the cool water at the beach again? Are the Pilgrims going to attack the African American community again? Is there a decrease in the increase in murders again? Should the gang bangers take their crime to the alley again? Are we going to see a new violence reduction plan again?

Will you vote democrat again?

7/24/2012 08:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@ WtH: Why does Chicago have such a low clearance rate? Because nobody saw nuffin, nobody knows nuffin, and nobody was in no gang.

7/24/2012 08:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Talk about confusing stats: currently 401 officers in 019....60 tac officers....6 tact sgts....2 tact secretaries .....10 burglary team officers...without a sgt. Unsupervised! Now Thats confusing.

7/24/2012 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ill go with Trib Numbers anytime over the Rahm Daily Bugle(Scum Times). I think Fran Spielman and Frank Main are pseudonyms 9.5 uses when writing articles glorifying himself and burying the real news.

7/24/2012 09:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are decreasing the increasing decreases. Shell game. Media mum. Only in Chicago.

7/24/2012 09:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"we are decreasing our increase" says the man behind the curtain. Well, here is how it works:
On 7/12/12 we had 280 homicides compared to 209 on 7/12/11, which is up 71 dead people, and a 33.97% increase. One week later, on 7/21/12 we had 293 homicides compared to 222 on 7/21/11, which is STILL up 71 bodies, but only a 31.98% increase, better by 2%!
We are just dividing by a higher total and our % goes down, even though the body count doesn't. Now please, close the curtain.

7/24/2012 09:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder what the average shooting costs the taxpayers. I tend to doubt most of these shooting "victims" have private insurance to cover their injuries. Probably not.

So the public pays.

What do we suppose medical care on the average shooting costs - $100k? More?

And just extrapolating: 6 shootings a day, $100k each, $600k a day, 365 days a year . . . gotta take off my shoes here to do the math . . . $219 million a year!

Or a little under $84 a year for every man, woman and child in Chicago! Or one-third of the City's budget deficit!

A boatload of money, no matter how you count it.

7/24/2012 10:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

(OT) 911 tapes from the aurora Colorado shootings this is how a dispatcher should be! Nice and calm!


7/24/2012 11:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Less then 900 Detectives.Down from 1200 after last promotion 4 and a half years ago. Plenty more leaving by end of year. Don't need to be a Detective to figure out why clearance rates are so low.

7/24/2012 02:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TO: "Welcome to Homicide" at 5:17 AM

What's your source on Chicago's murder clearance rate? While I don't doubt that it's the worst in the nation, last time I checked it was about 25%.

I agree that the media won't touch Chicago Part I clearance rates with a 10-foot pole. The city would be so embarrassed in the national media that heads would have to roll from the top down.

Let's face the worst-kept secret in this town. The media is run by City Hall.

7/24/2012 03:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aurora theater shooting: Gun sales up since tragedy 41%

7/24/2012 05:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My understanding is that nearly 40 alderman are fed up with McCarthy and his top brass. The latest problem is the lack of direction at OEMC and the confusion in the dispatching policy. Many Alderman are catching heat from the voters who are fed up and pissed off about lack of response or no response at all. The Dispatchers are not assigning certain jobs based on recent policy change that has not been made clear to anyone??? The Mayor is now catching heat from the Alderman who want a straight answer. The answer is that we simply cannot dispatch and answer calls like before due to lack of manpower, The public needs to hear this explanation from an investigative reporter who has a set of balls to go on the air and report it.

7/24/2012 05:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Department should come out to the public with clearance rate stats on homicide and all other index crimes. The public would be shocked.

7/24/2012 05:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

now that ob is pres things are better. can you imagine what the next 4 yrs will be like. keep in mind he still has his stash, and every one will get some. the down side murder and shootings wont stop. its so wonderful to have a pres that feels your pain. the secret is to stay f-up on your drug of choice, and you wont have to think about it. theres dogs that have a better life.

7/24/2012 07:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Weekend is defined as Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Except in Chicago.

7/26/2012 10:45:00 PM  

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