Here's Your "Reduction"
Has anyone ever noticed that whenever there is a particularly bloody weekend, Rahm and McCompStat say something like, "Well, it's a reduction from the same weekend last year" or some similar such nonsense?
This past Memorial Day comes to mind, Last year it was a mess, and this year after 40+ shootings, there was some press release saying that shootings were down x% from the same weekend last year, never once taking into account the massive temperature difference. It's all smoke and mirrors and the media eats it up (or did until this week).
So the story the other day was how killings are down 29% over last year. Why the comparisons to a yearly total instead of June 2011 v June 2013? Here's how June shook out the past few years:
This past Memorial Day comes to mind, Last year it was a mess, and this year after 40+ shootings, there was some press release saying that shootings were down x% from the same weekend last year, never once taking into account the massive temperature difference. It's all smoke and mirrors and the media eats it up (or did until this week).
So the story the other day was how killings are down 29% over last year. Why the comparisons to a yearly total instead of June 2011 v June 2013? Here's how June shook out the past few years:
- June 2011 - 46 homicides
- June 2012 - 47 homicides
- June 2013 - 45 killings (they aren't homicides anymore)
McCrimeFighter went with the number that looked better. And bigger. CompStat is statistical manipulation to achieve a political end. We've been saying that for years and so did a couple of professors in New York, including one who was an NYPD captain who helped develop CompStat.
You doubt us? How about this - McCarthy is claiming that Chicago has the lowest murder total over the first six months for any year running back to the 1960's. Murder totals? How about murder rate? Well, that's an uncomfortable question as he'd have to confront these numbers:
You doubt us? How about this - McCarthy is claiming that Chicago has the lowest murder total over the first six months for any year running back to the 1960's. Murder totals? How about murder rate? Well, that's an uncomfortable question as he'd have to confront these numbers:
- Chicago Population - 1960: 3,550,404
- Chicago Population - 1980: 3,005,072
- Chicago Population - 2010: 2,695,598
Labels: stats
posted by SCC at 12:04 AM
70 Comments:
To whoever posts all the 'chalkie' comments, your posts are incredibly stupid.
Please give it a fucking rest.
Don't give them the idea of looking at the rate, then they can say that Chicago looks pretty good compared to a lot of other US cities (New Orleans, Detroit, St Louis, and a bunch more have higher murder rates).
I got yer reduction right heer!!!
I soon as I saw the news report of the 29% decrease, I remembered the earlier in the year news report of the 50% decrease. So whoops, the must be an increase in the most recent period of time.
So play around with stats all McD wants, it is still a war zone.
Hey, by 2025 the population of Shit-cago will be around 1.5 million...just think what that will do for the "totals"
The future mayors and their puppets can keep bragging about the "lowest murder totals" every year until there is just the mayor and the Stupidintendent left in the citys population. Then (assuming they dont kill one another) we can have Zero murders
You can count 2 tonight in 25!
Let the bodies hit the floor.
Dj 12 inch
Why change the labels from murder to killings? It enables you to subtly change the definition of what "is" is right? Are they the same? Are you sure? It may not be what we think it is.
If nothing else searching on one term makes it harder to do historical research.
The Food Stamp program is now called SNAP. Why'd we change the name on that? The total number of people on the program has been soaring for over 13 years now.
About time to quote 9-1-1 response times again as we compare it to that period of time we had a snow storm -- that shut down LSD and stranded how many ppl again??
Obfuscation.
In other news.. look how well the gun control is working...
AP IMPACT: More air passengers show up with guns
[...].. In the first six months of this year, Transportation Security Administration screeners found 894 guns on passengers or in their carry-on bags, a 30 percent increase over the same period last year. The TSA set a record in May for the most guns seized in one week — 65 in all, 45 of them loaded and 15 with bullets in the chamber and ready to be fired. That was 30 percent more than the previous record of 50 guns, set just two weeks earlier.
Last year TSA found 1,549 firearms on passengers attempting to go through screening, up 17 percent from the year before.
In response to a request from The Associated Press, the agency provided figures on the number of firearm incidents in 2011 and 2012 for all U.S. airports, as well as the number of passengers screened at each airport. The AP analyzed the data, as well as weekly blog reports from the agency on intercepted guns from this year and last year.
TSA didn't keep statistics on guns intercepted before 2011, ((WHY NOT?? You mean there's no report or database on this)) but officials have noticed an upward trend in recent years, said spokesman David Castelveter.
Some of the details make officials shake their heads.
As one passenger took off his jacket to go through screening in Sacramento, Calif., last year, TSA officers noticed he was wearing a shoulder holster, and in it was a loaded 9 mm pistol. The same passenger was found to have three more loaded pistols, 192 rounds of ammunition, two magazines and three knives.
Screeners elsewhere found a .45-caliber pistol and magazine hidden inside a cassette deck. Another .45-caliber pistol...
more.. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-impact-more-air-passengers-show-guns
Emphasis is mine.
Of course here lies the problem with this report. Where's the rest of the numbers. What were the conviction rates and sentences? Some of the people were said to have been told to just put the gun back in their cars.
So who's to say how much of this is staged for gun grabbing propaganda under "We are worried about your safety" mantra
So what's your point?
What is the status of our contract?!?!
Most of the other major cities in the world are experiencing population growth so it seems odd that our population is decreasing.
I wonder who is leaving? Which areas of the city are less-populated? Are there stats on that? It seems like there are more young, mid-affluent families which is a big change compared to the past when you left as soon as you had a kid.
Anyone else hear a Sgts class starting late July?
What McBourbonlover means is that it is a reduction from the same precise hour, minute and second from last year.
Or he just pulls shit out of his ass and dreams up another moment since the beginning of time and compares that to whatever he is thinking about and imagines one is lower and there you have it. Compared to when dinosaurs roamed the earth and munched on two legged creatures, violence is lower.
This guy McCarthy could sell investment grade ass-wipe paper to Bernie Madoff.
Well said SCC.
July is off to a splendid start with 4 homicides already. June's first homicides happened on the 3rd.
Our monthly targets are as follows:
July 2012: 49
July 2011: 58(!)
Illustrating Chicago's Murders, Homicides, Violence and Idiocy at heyjackass.com
"Here's Your Reduction"
And there goes that "insignificant" blog with those old, dumb, wild, out of control, brutal, hate filled cops who are all angry because it isn't 1960 anymore...
Why won't you guys just sit down, shut up?
Oh how the powers that be and their henchmen stay up at night trying to figure out ways to shut down "that pesky cop blog."
Are they still getting C/R#'s every time SCC hurts somebody's feelings?
Second City Cop... The ONLY SOURCE of spin-free, pure, raw, unfiltered, uncut and UNFUCKED WITH news in this city.
THIS IS... Where dots get connected and exquisitely crafted Chicago fuckery gets fucked up.
"Why are you guys so angry? You scare us! You're up to something, aren't you?"
The fact that hard and pointy questions are being raised by a bunch of supposedly "dumb" cops REALLY chafes some self-important agenda and trend setting, self-styled news making asses.
How is such an "insignificant" blog mostly contributed to by such puny and "insignificant" individuals in the societal pecking order like Coppers, cause so many VIP and FEDGOV internet provider numbers to illuminate?
"Those wild, crazy and out of control Coppers in Chicago bear watching!"
More energy is expended fighting The Police in this town than the criminal element...
The relentless spinning and manipulation of crime statistics and the refusal to own up to and correct the ongoing manpower shortage are by and of themselves criminal acts.
Let alone immoral and unethical.
Have the people (the upright and law abiding taxpayers) had enough yet?
You know there is a difference between a homicide and a killing.....killing is old school,it in the bible it's so old!
is the reduction in population due to the falling rate of homicides/killing
Anonymous said...
To whoever posts all the 'chalkie' comments, your posts are incredibly stupid.
Please give it a fucking rest.
7/03/2013 12:12:00 AM
It takes a particular sense of humor to get those. Spend years going to calls and see plenty of blood on the streets and you will understand. Maybe.
Illinois HB0183
FIREARMS CONCEALED CARRY ACT as presented to Illinois Gov. Patrick Quinn
(168 pages)
CLICK ON HOUSE BILL 183
To answer the guy who wanted to know why there was such an increase recently in late nite foot traffic at Wabash and Lake . . . Its because beneath your very feet at 35 e. LOWER wacker there is a virtual open market for drug trade and no one seems to care. The Harold Washington scholars can get anything they want down there faster than they can get a slurpee at 7-11. And if your not buyin you can get your ass whooped and robbed for free! The sellers have set up a nice little fortress like market inside the concrete triangle down there. I also work near there and see it go on all day and nite.
FYI:http://rare.us/story/bankrupt-cities-dumping-public-workers-on-obamacare/
Why would the brain dead leftists from the propaganda ministry betray their socialist masters by publishing the truth and demanding service from public officials?
Come on, man. This is Chicago.
This is kind of comical.
When numbers are up, you seem to celebrate them. When they're down, you question them.
Yes, figures lie and liars figure. We're all guilty. But, you cant credibly challenge the media or the politicians for twisting the numbers, then turn around and do it yourself to conform to whatever narrative you are trying to advance. Well, you can do whatever you want, but you can't expect to do so with any sense of credibility.
Go ahead and spin the numbers. Everyone else does. just know that there is some serious pot calling the kettle black going on here. Not a big deal..just stand up and own it is all.
You can decide not to post -- your blog, your call. But you can't deny that you are spinning this as much as bosses and pols are.
Another thing to consider is how far medical technology, particularly the treatment of trauma and gunshot wounds, in the last almost 48 years. There are people who live through a gunshot wound that would have been dead even 10 years ago, let alone 48 years ago. Besides the big difference in population in Shit-cago, the number of homicides can't be compared to numbers from 48 years ago. The number of shootings is the real thing to compare, and without knowing the numbers, I would bet there are many, many more now than 48 years ago.
Attention News Media.
The Mayor and Supp bragged about reorganizing the Detective Division so it will be more effective.
They say we have enough Police Officers and Detectives.
What are the Clearance Rates for Major Crimes?
Go ahead get the clearance stats.
Police work in not just about taking reports.
Are crimes being Solved at an acceptable rate or are they just being reported in a timely fashion?
Cops and Dets on the street push back the wave of crime.
WE NEED MORE COPS!
On the street we separate the bad guys from the good people.
It takes manpower.
My mother can push computer keys in an office.
Be Careful! George "Mass Killer of the Highways" gets out of prison today.
Greensboro NC just passed a downtown curfew following a 400 teen melee expressing themselves this past weekend. Oh yes we can!
Officers in 001 and 018 were told that no time due is allowed when the jury for the Zimmerman trail is deliberating. All officers were told to have their helmets, gas masks, and batons readily available. Good luck boys and girls.
According to the decennial U.S. Census, Chicago was the second most populous city in the nation until the 1990 Census when it was surpassed by Los Angeles. Chicago's 1950 peak population compared to the most recent 2010 decennial Census:
1950.....3,620,962
2010.....2,695,598 (down 25.6%)
LOSS.......925,364
Notice a trend?
GET OUT!
WHY? You know the answers to that question. Think "Detroit".
To whoever posts all the 'chalkie' comments, your posts are incredibly stupid.
Please give it a fucking rest.
7/03/2013 12:12:00 AM
death is incredibly stupid.
my comments, in your humble opinion, are merely ordinarily stupid.
please refrain from indulging in hyperbole in the future.
it gives the impression that you're tightly wound.
Chalkie
just watched a tribune video of the mother of the boy shot on his bike on his way home. "The city belongs to the gang bangers."
Don't cite the population numbers.
The department will justify not hiring based on those numbers.
Shhhhhhhhhhh.
SCC, I'm starting to think you're conducting one of those Psych 101 experiments on us. First, the 'prove you're not a robot'. Then, the stupid screener gets more and more complicated. Then, it adds in numbers, but they're turned sideways and superimposed on one another. Now, photographs of numbers, but with a pen tip thrown into the photo, to obscure part of the number?????
I had to resort to zooming the screen to 200% to view it. What's next, little animal shapes that resemble numbers? Enough!
the chalkie comments are the best. lighten up francis. "the gangbanger have taken over this city" momma of a 14 year old killed at North and Lavergne. Chalk one more up for chanlkie.
7/03/2013 02:29:00 AM
The name was changed because they tried to refocus the program to supplement nutrition versus just buying whatever food you like though it would kill you. You see what I did in my past life.
022 is on fire!! One homicide each Monday, Tuesday & today and one just shot twice in the head but still alive...for now.
Bring on the heat!!!!
Guess what guys and gals since someone decided to drink an alcoholic beverage from the Stanley cup at the Wit guess what happened next?? That's right, they got the GPS for all the cars that were in that area for the night. If you were in the general vicinity of that hotel, you got some splainin to do. Ooops, word is lots of cars from VRI were there too. Can you say fuckoed. You jackpotted your sgt too.
Anyone who successfully makes a useless parent use a condom or birth control will receive a crime reduction award.
Without a doubt Garry is the grandson the original Wooden head Puppet, Charlie McCarthy.
You can decide not to post -- your blog, your call. But you can't deny that you are spinning this as much as bosses and pols are.
7/03/2013 11:16:00 AM
are you smoking the same stuff as the chalkie poster and the other poster who doesn't like westside inside and box chevy? what don't you get?
I had to resort to zooming the screen to 200% to view it. What's next, little animal shapes that resemble numbers? Enough!
7/03/2013 02:33:00 PM
it's all about keeping you sharp, (snap!), on the edge, (snap!), where you need to be.
hone that angst, baby.
Chalkie
Anonymous said...
Officers in 001 and 018 were told that no time due is allowed when the jury for the Zimmerman trail is deliberating. All officers were told to have their helmets, gas masks, and batons readily available. Good luck boys and girls.
7/03/2013 01:00:00 PM
Dont know if that will matter, between the judges rulings, evidence ruled admissible and manslaughter charge instead of 2nd degree murder,and jury he may be in big trouble
Libs may be celebrating instead of rioting
On the street we separate the bad guys from the good people.
It takes manpower.
My mother can push computer keys in an office.
So can all the young po's in the commanders office, front offices and special unit offices and special units that have no police function
They can play with the numbers all they want. The press is their lap dog.
I bet that 3210's most favorite Christmas gift ever was a set of walkie talkies. Just saying
oT
Saw bulletin that on duty CPD bicycle officer struck in head and robbed at 26th/state
Took bike and phone
Sick society
Hope officer is ok
2.707 million (2011)
1980: 3,005,000
1990: 2,783,726
2000: 2,896,016
i read an article by don peck saying people are emigrating back to mexico
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas-emigration-problem/309410/ seems their enconomy is comming up and ours is going down
"Officers in 001 and 018 were told that no time due is allowed when the jury for the Zimmerman trail is deliberating. All officers were told to have their helmets, gas masks, and batons readily available. Good luck boys and girls."
I suspect the jig is up and he will be found guilty of MS even though he ain't guilty. The all-women jury, which will sympathize with his mother and the defense witnesses (because we all know Trayvon was just an angel...) virtually guaranteed this.
If I am wrong, the amount of wilding, thuggery, rioting and other mayhem will make the Rodney King riots look like a church picnic. Luckily I am locked and loaded.
Anonymous said...
Yippeeee Yahoooowie ! One year of retro in the bank. Going to try the new scented hair gel with ultra sheen.
7/02/2013 06:08:00 PM
I guess you forgot about "the letter."
Three days of retro now in the bank. Thanks Geiger Geiger Geiger!
What's up with the increasing number of trolls coming on the blog and making demands for certain posters to "shut up?"
The trolls add nothing to the discussion but they want to shut people up?
Is 7/03/2013 12:12:00 AM a hater of free speech?
You coppers better sit down and shut up or else.
Playing Games With Numbers...
"Don't cite the population numbers.
The department will justify not hiring based on those numbers.
Shhhhhhhhhhh."
7/03/2013 01:58:00 PM
They won't admit that they allowed the city to be overtaken by shit-heads.
Chicago not only had max a population of over 3.6 million, you could say almost 3 million of them WORKED...
Do your own math for heads of households/home owners/property tax payers and where the "Chicago used to make/manufacture LOTS OF SHIT" jobs got off to over the last 40 some years and the intentional decision to wage war against what's left of the middle class by city hall, then you'll see why this city is destroyed never to recover again.
Fuck Rahm and his henchmen... No matter how much they spin and blow smoke, you CANNOT have a viable city on just a service/paper pushing and "we gets free shit" economy.
three dead 5 wounded tonight.
Not even a warm night.
OT- while enjoying a summer furlough north of the border, the Wisconsin news is a buzz regarding the Governors signing of no residency law in Wisconsin. City of Milwaukee is now fighting the new law. Interesting! !
What are the sat teams doing? Dist. short, supervisors short, where are the bodies?
"This is kind of comical.
When numbers are up, you seem to celebrate them. When they're down you question them."
7/03/2013 11:16:00 AM
The seeming celebration is all in you pretty, little, empty 'nana puddin' head...
Sarcasm?
Silliness?
You missed the opening banner of this blog... Intentionally it seems.
Since you're obviously NOT The Police, trying to explain various coping mechanisms for 20 to 40+ years of seeing and hearing things that would make lesser mortals puke on their shoes would be a waste of time since you "seem" to have your narrow mind made up about how Policemen "seem" to be on the wrong side of whatever cock-eyed equation you've worked out that feverish little peanut you used to call a brain.
Tell your narrow, shit-assed master at City Hall and his wet-brain minion at the "Public Safety" building to quit trying to sell the decent, hard-working and law abiding tax payers a "crime is down" bill of goods as a distraction for stealing the Police they pay for and giving it to communities that are nothing but property tax deserts that that contribute nothing but shit, death and misery.
The people who get off their asses to go to work and pay these fucking jack-pot taxes, fees, fines, money grabs and snatch-backs ought to chain the doors of City Hall and do what oppressed people have been known to do when representative governance turns a deaf ear to them.
You run and tell Rahm and McCarthy to stop their reign of bullshit.
What's comical is how they turn themselves inside-out lying to the public (with an able assist from the media) about the very real lack of safety and greatly diminished Police presence as an ongoing 10+ year political vendetta.
McNumbers only spent about 3 years working as a cop in New York. The rest of his career was spent kissing ass and playing pretending to be statistician. His daddy was a good cop from what I hear.
McNumbers is nothing but a clout baby who rode on the coat tails of his daddy's reputation.
>>>Anonymous said...
Anonymous said...
Yippeeee Yahoooowie ! One year of retro in the bank. Going to try the new scented hair gel with ultra sheen.
7/02/2013 06:08:00 PM
I guess you forgot about "the letter."
Three days of retro now in the bank. Thanks Geiger Geiger Geiger!
7/03/2013 08:30:00 PM<<<
Retro! Smetro! Idiot!
It's our money all along that Rahm is holding onto, collecting interest and making us crazy.
Anonymous said...
"Officers in 001 and 018 were told that no time due is allowed when the jury for the Zimmerman trail is deliberating. All officers were told to have their helmets, gas masks, and batons readily available. Good luck boys and girls."
I suspect the jig is up and he will be found guilty of MS even though he ain't guilty. The all-women jury, which will sympathize with his mother and the defense witnesses (because we all know Trayvon was just an angel...) virtually guaranteed this.
If I am wrong, the amount of wilding, thuggery, rioting and other mayhem will make the Rodney King riots look like a church picnic. Luckily I am locked and loaded.
7/03/2013 08:27:00 PM
Unless I missed it, where was rioting in Chicago after the Rodney King verdict?
oT
Saw bulletin that on duty CPD bicycle officer struck in head and robbed at 26th/state
Took bike and phone
Sick society
Hope officer is ok
This cant be true
i read an article by don peck saying people are emigrating back to mexico
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas-emigration-problem/309410/ seems their enconomy is comming up and ours is going down
Media spin to slow down the Tea Party movement
Anonymous said...
This is kind of comical.
When numbers are up, you seem to celebrate them. When they're down, you question them.
Yes, figures lie and liars figure. We're all guilty. But, you cant credibly challenge the media or the politicians for twisting the numbers, then turn around and do it yourself to conform to whatever narrative you are trying to advance. Well, you can do whatever you want, but you can't expect to do so with any sense of credibility.
Go ahead and spin the numbers. Everyone else does. just know that there is some serious pot calling the kettle black going on here. Not a big deal..just stand up and own it is all.
You can decide not to post -- your blog, your call. But you can't deny that you are spinning this as much as bosses and pols are.
7/03/2013 11:16:00 AM
So the mayor's office does read the blog.
Anonymous said...
To whoever posts all the 'chalkie' comments, your posts are incredibly stupid.
Please give it a fucking rest.
7/03/2013 12:12:00 AM
If you had time on the job, you'd understand Chalkie.
Now go back under some white shirt's desk.
Daley , can take the credit for lower crime in Chicago . It wasn't by hiring more police or his great choice of merit exempt staff.
It's the Bulldozers , Wrecking ball , foreclosed and torn down homes . Do Not forget section 8 . He destroyed public housing and moved all the ghetto rats out of Chicago . He is a very smart man .
Moe the criminals out of Chicago and crime goes down .
To whoever posts all the 'chalkie' comments, your posts are incredibly stupid.
Please give it a fucking rest.
7/03/2013 12:12:00 AM
If you had time on the job, you'd understand Chalkie.
Now go back under some white shirt's desk.
7/04/2013 12:36:00 PM
Time on the job???
What the fuck are you talking about?
When was the last time you saw a fucking body outlined in chalk?
I think since the invention of a camera it's been unnecessary. Everyone with eyes has seen a chalk outline in lieu of a dead body on tv and the movies. It doesn't make you unique or old school.
"Chalkie" is a blog gag that to some people, myself included, is old and boring. It ranks up there with Burger Queen, 14 yr old police officers, smoke and mirrors, and retards misquoting lyrics from The Who as shit that is old and tired.
We get you don't have a sense of humor, so you lack the ability to genuinely laugh at something. You only laugh at something because you think you are supposed to. Don't be upset because people don't find the water squirting flower entertaining anymore.
So much lead flying around this weekend, the Tribune can't even keep up. This afternoon they had two different counts on their front page.
It ain't an easy gig.
http://imgur.com/5qOchql
so actually, statistically, theres more killing and Murder in Chicago, although there are less people, theres as much violence and killing as there was with MORE people living here.
If Full-Time Cops won't be hired, at least hire back Retirees for the Summer Season of Mayhem, a few days a week. /Even if they're not still City Residents, there has been a lot of excellent Talent that retired in the past 5 or so years, that could still work part time for some Cash, no need to give them benefits.
Anonymous said...
Anyone else hear a Sgts class starting late July?
7/03/2013 07:34:00 AM
Wishful Dreamer, Are U Insane ?
...there has been a lot of excellent Talent that retired in the past 5 or so years, that could still work part time for some Cash, no need to give them benefits.
7/04/2013 09:47:00 PM
well, aren't you the generous genius.
i believe a sincere 'bite me' is in order here.
Don't be upset because people don't find the water squirting flower entertaining anymore.
7/04/2013 04:19:00 PM
so, what you're saying is, i should switch to piss bum urine?
Chalkie
Anonymous said...
If Full-Time Cops won't be hired, at least hire back Retirees for the Summer Season of Mayhem, a few days a week. /Even if they're not still City Residents, there has been a lot of excellent Talent that retired in the past 5 or so years, that could still work part time for some Cash, no need to give them benefits.
7/04/2013 09:47:00 PM
Or hire the retirees and move the full duty dollies from the desk to the street. How can management justify the number of female, full duty secretaries? Really, a retired officer can answer phones and file papers.
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