Friday, February 21, 2014

Predictive Analytics Rises from the Dead

  • When the Chicago Police Department sent one of its commanders to Robert McDaniel’s home last summer, the 22-year-old high school dropout was surprised. Though he lived in a neighborhood well-known for bloodshed on its streets, he hadn’t committed a crime or interacted with a police officer recently. And he didn’t have a violent criminal record, nor any gun violations. In August, he incredulously told the Chicago Tribune, "I haven't done nothing that the next kid growing up hadn't done.” Yet, there stood the female police commander at his front door with a stern message: if you commit any crimes, there will be major consequences. We’re watching you.

    What McDaniel didn’t know was that he had been placed on the city’s “heat list” — an index of the roughly 400 people in the city of Chicago supposedly most likely to be involved in violent crime. Inspired by a Yale sociologist’s studies and compiled using an algorithm created by an engineer at the Illinois Institute of Technology, the heat list is just one example of the experiments the CPD is conducting as it attempts to push policing into the 21st century
Anything to pretend they're saving money....more with less and all that, not ever seeming to realize that if someone is determined to "send a message" to another gang banger, they're going to find a way to set him up, hunt him down, and kill him....just not where the police are at.

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46 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think, if someone put me on this list, then pounded on my door to intrude in my life, I'd be finding something to sue somebody over. Getting pretty tired of big brother in my life.

2/21/2014 12:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could it have been "Commander" B.J. West at the door?

2/21/2014 12:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

21st century, the CPD has pushed policing into the 22d century. The CPD has developed and is using a computer program that predicts crime and individual criminal acts, who will commit them and when. Neat huh?? No wonder crime is down. Just another example of an inspired mayor and police superintendent working together to reduce crime and lower the policce budget.

2/21/2014 12:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's only a matter of time until someone starts screaming harassment or racial profiling or some other $tuff.

2/21/2014 12:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OT;
I'm on a foot unit in 007. we just got new SGT's. I expected more. I took multiple leadership courses in college, and as an eagle scout. After seeing them stumble and fumble I know I will make a difference.

2/21/2014 02:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This one could definitely make the top 5 dumbest things 35th street came up with. You know it when big bosses make jokes about it all over the city. These are bosses with a lot of time on too and have seen a lot of dumb stuff. Embarrassing!

2/21/2014 03:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds like North Korea Watching Citizens

2/21/2014 05:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fix the Crook County Criminal Justice System Stop the Bleeding heart BS and Put people in jail for the crimes that they commit


Focus on the corrupt politicians

2/21/2014 05:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Commanders personally go to the home of criminals and sit down with their families to keep them from getting shot.

Up here in 016, I'd be happy to see a Beat car slide down my block every once in a blue moon. Maybe stop the home invaders that walked in on the kids who had to run out in the snow in their bare feet to escape.

NOOOOOOPE! Got to keep those gangbangers alive.

While I'm ranting, the Superintendent is on a commercial for WLS AM. He says the ONLY thing the Department is judged on is the murder rate. These are gang members killing each other. Does that really matter to the average tax payer? Not really. Yet all our manpower is tied up there.

2/21/2014 05:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think, if someone put me on this list, then pounded on my door to intrude in my life, I'd be finding something to sue somebody over. Getting pretty tired of big brother in my life.

...Well you live in a one party rule police state and just now realizing it

2/21/2014 05:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I makes you feel warm inside and proud of CPD and it's leadership. It is good to be on a winning team.

2/21/2014 07:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

just a recycled idea from the previous administration that mcarthy is taking credit for

2/21/2014 07:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And yet, in the midst of this crummy weather, the shootings in 015 go on...

2/21/2014 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ever see the movie "Minority Report"?

2/21/2014 08:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yet there has been another homicide in 015 last night, been quite a few this year despite commander school marm and officer weather. I'm sure the men and women of 015 are working hard so it must be time to transfer her to commander of staplers and paper clips and perhaps the combination of new strategy and improved morale might work

2/21/2014 08:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love when my commander came in our office while we were all discussing this and made the jerking off motion describing this.

2/21/2014 08:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


the thought police is very likely to be hit with a harassment suit over this crap don't you think.

good thing the city has all that commercial paper [borrowed money] to pay for unforeseen judgements eh.

2/21/2014 08:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OT;
I'm on a foot unit in 007. we just got new SGT's. I expected more. I took multiple leadership courses in college, and as an eagle scout. After seeing them stumble and fumble I know I will make a difference.


God, I hope you're kidding.

2/21/2014 08:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"We mean it this time!" Bwah haha hahahaha

2/21/2014 08:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Morons wasting tax dollars instead of hiring cops who can do the job. Progressives. This is what you get.

2/21/2014 08:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Predictive analytics, the city reneging on the sgts back pay, Deep Fiscal deficits, can a REAL Robocop prototype be in the works somewhere? Rahm,? Anyone?

2/21/2014 09:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

read "Don't Shoot." this is where these ideas are coming from

2/21/2014 10:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's our future Superintendent Barb West, you heard it here first!

2/21/2014 10:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heat list or Profile list?
How many Commanders made the "least likely to succeed " list, only to find great successes in the big city Department?

2/21/2014 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger Ray said...

And this is not violating any civil rights out there???? We get slapped for it all the time but now they can go to people who ARENT doing anything wrong and violate them?

2/21/2014 10:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lmao!!!!!!!

2/21/2014 10:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are under arrest for the future crime of drinking while on the public way.

2/21/2014 10:17:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. SouthSide said...

I would rather pound at their door to say GOODBYE.

2/21/2014 11:34:00 AM  
Blogger Cuthbert J. Twillie said...

I don't know what all the hoopla is about?!? I'm serious, I'd call this 'Heat List' the 'Duh List'. Because given the all data (aka: facts) about these 400+ People -- or Folk ;-) -- them getting involved in more serious crimes: shooting someone, or getting shot it's like 'Yeah DUH!' No shit Sherlock.

I'd also bet that if you gave a Professional Race Horse Handicapper all the data on these criminals they'd come up with the same thing as this fancy ass computer program -- or very very close to it (and for a lot less money), as all it does is give you the odds. You can call it something fancy, like they are here to justify the money (and their jobs), but it's still basically the Odds of that person getting into a shitload of trouble in the future.

[ps: no offense meant to Race Horses in my comparing them to gang-bangin' thugs :-)]

2/21/2014 01:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I find it funny yet sad that people will begin carrying concealed very soon and we have had exactly ZERO training to date. World class organization my ass.

2/21/2014 02:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

02:48am, I understand what you are saying. I have said time and time again. Anyone can be a Sgt. but it takes a special person to be a supervisor.

2/21/2014 02:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This one could definitely make the top 5 dumbest things 35th street came up with.

The #1 dumbest thing: the snitch boxes.

Has anyone seen one?

Please delete prior comment.



2/21/2014 03:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That CPD is a fuckin joke. Between maria pena and the hair gel kids with their college and computers we are fucked. Retired guys know. Too bad these kids with less than 18 yrs OTJ will NEVER see a pension. They don't understand but they will when they retire someday and only holdin in their hand a VRI check stub, their little manhood and no pension check. Motherfuck me kids. Don't give a fuck. But you will remember this one day. Not kidding.

2/21/2014 03:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Koolaid . . . Koolaid . . .get your free Koolaid ! ! !

2/21/2014 05:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I think, if someone put me on this list, then pounded on my door to intrude in my life, I'd be finding something to sue somebody over. Getting pretty tired of big brother in my life.

...Well you live in a one party rule police state and just now realizing it

2/21/2014 05:40:00 AM

Same ole BS I'd be finding something to sue somebody over. Yea who would you find and sue them for what? You would be looking for a long time.

2/21/2014 05:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey PAU, please give the winning numbers for Saturday's winning Mega Millions. Hell, ill settle for the pick 3.

Now me and my watch mates are predicting some violence perpetrated in, 003,007, 011, and 015 in the near future.

2/21/2014 07:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Off Topic.

First we had 1070(and still do) tying up valuable air time on zone 10. Now we have a new leader aka 1033. Today 1033 was broadcasting a novel about a traffic crash while a unit was calling for help during a search warrant. Thankfully enough units were able to catch the offender. Our dispatcher was trying to get 1033 to STFU so she could find out the units location to get help and 1033 would not STFU. 1033 is definitely following in the legendary 1070's footsteps with being a radio talk show host.

The radio is to get out pertinent information as quickly as possible and not include unnecessary BS.

You are going to get some PO hurt or worst with long drawn out stories.

Do the rest of us a favor and use the PDT.

1033 your are just like DJ-Ray aka 1070. you are a "radio hog"!

Now shut up Fool!

2/21/2014 08:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read about how the new Team Policing concept is such a nightmare in 003,012, & 024. If it is so bad I would hope at least the officers in the Districts would have a spine and kill this cancer before it spreads throughout the city and the BUSY Districts. I know 003 and 012 would stick together but after dealing with complete morons at V.R.I. from 024 I am sure they have Team Policing knee pads.

2/21/2014 09:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

400 savages who are a drain on society that might be killed and this is a problem?

2/21/2014 09:15:00 PM  
Anonymous 10TH Dist Mr. T said...



First we had 1070(and still do) tying up valuable air time on zone 10. Now we have a new leader aka 1033. Today 1033 was broadcasting a novel about a traffic crash while a unit was calling for help during a search warrant. Thankfully enough units were able to catch the offender. Our dispatcher was trying to get 1033 to STFU so she could find out the units location to get help and 1033 would not STFU. 1033 is definitely following in the legendary 1070's footsteps with being a radio talk show host.

The radio is to get out pertinent information as quickly as possible and not include unnecessary BS.

You are going to get some PO hurt or worst with long drawn out stories.

Do the rest of us a favor and use the PDT.

1033 your are just like DJ-Ray aka 1070. you are a "radio hog"!

Now shut up Fool!


Quit your jibber jabber fool. Don't come on the blog and use my call signs fool. Listen I have been saying this crap for a long time. 1070 and that other idiot can't STFU. While executing a search warrant today on 900 n Homan and outside unit is calling for help. But no, this freaking idiot form 10 needs to tell us shit about shit. Hey I gots an idea for you ass wipe. Give a feaking code and tell your supervisor 1070 stfu also. YOUR GONNA GET SOMONE HURT What the hell is da matter with the guys in 10?

2/21/2014 11:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That CPD is a fuckin joke. Between maria pena and the hair gel kids with their college and computers we are fucked. Retired guys know. Too bad these kids with less than 18 yrs OTJ will NEVER see a pension. They don't understand but they will when they retire someday and only holdin in their hand a VRI check stub, their little manhood and no pension check. Motherfuck me kids. Don't give a fuck. But you will remember this one day. Not kidding.

And why 18 years? Why not 23 or 12? Pulling arbitrary numbers out of your ass or wait, you have 19 years on the job so you are safe!! Bwahahaha! When you start paying my household bills and children's tuition then you can pop off like you got a pair. Absent of that, how about you just sit down and shut your fucking mouth?

2/22/2014 12:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That CPD is a fuckin joke. Between maria pena and the hair gel kids with their college and computers we are fucked. Retired guys know. Too bad these kids with less than 18 yrs OTJ will NEVER see a pension. They don't understand but they will when they retire someday and only holdin in their hand a VRI check stub, their little manhood and no pension check. Motherfuck me kids. Don't give a fuck. But you will remember this one day. Not kidding.

And why 18 years? Why not 23 or 12? Pulling arbitrary numbers out of your ass or wait, you have 19 years on the job so you are safe!! Bwahahaha! When you start paying my household bills and children's tuition then you can pop off like you got a pair. Absent of that, how about you just sit down and shut your fucking mouth?

Couldn't agree with you more. Guy has no idea what he is talking about. Seems like he is very unhappy and mad at the world.

2/22/2014 10:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I read about how the new Team Policing concept is such a nightmare in 003,012, & 024. If it is so bad I would hope at least the officers in the Districts would have a spine and kill this cancer before it spreads throughout the city and the BUSY Districts. I know 003 and 012 would stick together but after dealing with complete morons at V.R.I. from 024 I am sure they have Team Policing knee pads.

2/21/2014 09:06:00 PM

What are they supposed to do?

2/22/2014 10:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The commander was sent, only because Tom Cruise (from the Pre-Crime Unit) was busy investigating another crime that didn't happen- yet.

2/22/2014 11:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I work in 012 besides start time changing a little much ado about nothing. Quit complaining about nonsense worry about your pension and healthcare

2/22/2014 09:13:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Why can't they hire ME, remotely, here from Texas.

I can predict in bad neighborhoods there is more crime than in good ones. I can predict what street corners have more crime than others.

And surely I can predict that people with long rap sheets are more likely to do criminal deeds than those without rap sheets!

Just give me a few million bucks and I'll point out where to send the cops!

And if it don't work... we can blame it on Ted Cruz.

2/23/2014 10:05:00 AM  

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