BJ's Fantasy Budget

Smart readers know that Chicago (and all) government base their budgets on "projected" revenues, not actual revenues. Like this budget:

• Mayor Brandon Johnson unveiled his first budget on Wednesday, a $16.6 billion proposal that he says begins to deliver on his progressive promises while keeping property taxes steady and addressing the burgeoning migrant crisis.

A "migrant crisis" - that the administration has repeated refused to account for:

• Some plunging revenues outlined in Johnson’s forecast, released this time last month, turned out not as grim as Johnson said they would be. Chief among them are tourism-based taxes on hotels, restaurants, ride-shares and cabs, and ticket sales, Budget Director Annette Guzman said. The city’s year-end revenue estimates are almost $110 million higher than the 2023 budget.

  In all, Johnson’s budget office said revenues are about $187 million higher than they projected in September. Incoming economic data “gives us a lot of confidence in those particular key taxes,” Guzman said. "There’s a lot of stuff that’s going to be happening next year, we have a lot of large events coming."

"...revenue estimates..."

"...$187 million higher than they projected..."

• Hotel taxes are projected to be $26.6 million higher than 2023 budgeted amounts. Transportation taxes are expected to be $35.2 million higher than 2023, and recreation taxes $25.9 million higher.

"...projected..."

Like we said....a fantasy budget. There's not a real number anywhere.

The expenditures aren't based in reality either:

• Head count will not rise for the city’s largest workforce, the Chicago Police Department, though spending will rise by $91 million to nearly $2 billion. The department’s budget has grown steadily from $1.45 billion in 2015.

  CPD’s budgeted head count will remain at just over 14,100, but positions will shift internally, administration officials told reporters. Overall rank-and-file head count will slightly dip.

So manpower issues are only going to be exacerbated.

And if you were wondering who runs City Hall, check out the TIF funds:

• But the growing combined balance of the city’s TIFs has made it difficult to resist. For 2022, for example, the balance for all of Chicago’s TIF districts was $2.57 billion. When TIFs expire or are deemed to have surpluses, funds must be divided proportionally to local taxing bodies. When the city declares a surplus, Chicago Public Schools receive roughly 55% of the cut, which can also help the district prop up its ailing budget.

  This year, Johnson plans to declare $434 million in TIF funds as surplus, $39 million more than last year. It’s a record amount that would net about $100 million for the city and $226 million for CPS.

There you have it.