Counting Crime
- We've all listened in varying degrees of disbelief as Chicago Police Superintendent Jody Weis repeatedly claims that the city's violent crime rate has decreased steadily over the past nineteen (19) months.
The Superintendent claims we live in a safer city and blames the "24-hour news cycle" for over-doing its coverage of crime and violence, especially those incidents when dozens of people are shot during one night or weekend, sometimes several victims on the same crime scene.
Make sure you're sitting down when you read the following look "behind the numbers".
- Roderick Drew, the police department's media affairs director, confirmed this morning that when multiple persons are shot during a barrage of gunfire in Chicago it is counted as ONE aggravated battery.
That's right. Only one. That's because a shooting, no matter how many people are hit, is counted as a single incident.
Just last weekend (August 6-8), there were five incidents with multiple victims. The cops counted only five aggravated batteries when in fact over 15 people were injured or killed.
"I can't say why its counted that way", Drew told me.
"Its that way all over the country."
- How many people have been shot this year as compared to the same time last year?
- How many "shots fired" calls has the Department responded to as compared to the same period last year?
- How many reports have been filed alleging "I was shot at" as compared to the same time last year?
- "I don't have those numbers in front of me at this time. I'll get back to you. Gotta run!"
- We don't keep track of those incidents that obviously didn't occur - "no victim, no crime" we always say!
- Well, you know that "no snitching" thing? It keeps the stats down a bit.
Labels: stats
posted by SCC at 12:33 AM
34 Comments:
Tomorrows paper, page 47:
"Roderick Drew, the former head of CPD's media affairs..."
"Label it "The Disappearing Crime Trends" or something."
Daley Covers His Ass With A Blanket Of Blood
The media largely doesn't want to do what's obvious (and also already done in past articles by Mitchell and Steinberg): Call for Weis's resignation. No one is happy with his performance, and his 'doubletalk' this summer about crime, crime trends and his 'predicability analysis' has been such a pile of shit and lies...does anyone here ever recall such a lengthy period of time when you were actually embarrassed to be a part of this Dept? I can't either!
" when multiple persons are shot during a barrage of gunfire in Chicago it is counted as ONE aggravated battery. "
SIX People shot, ONE dead = ONE HOMICIDE.
THREE people shot dead at one incident = ONE HOMICIDE.
Remember all those people shot on the bus stop on 79th street? You guessed it, it gets reported as ONE AGGRAVATED BATTERY.
Hopefully all of this shit will be just one more nail in JFled and Daleys coffin.
See ya, fuckers, dont let the door hit you in the ass on the way out!
Talk about devaluing human life.
The Mayor is worse than the gang-bangers. He's supposed to be a figure of order, of authority. Instead, he's dehumanizing, ignoring victims for the sake of his "statistics."
Does this help everyone understand the utter disdain and contempt Richard and Margaret Daley and their minions have for the average person; the "little people" who wait for buses and save pennies in jars, who worked and sacrificed for years to buy a small house in, oh, say -- Bensenville?
This man has to go.
How about how many aren't reported because the police don't show up for hours and the victims are no longer there?
That doesn't take into account all the "death investigations" that are obvious homicides and all the aggravated batteries where the victim dies in a day or two.
Let's talk about the number of people shot, JFool. Why don't you ever mention those stats. This city is as violent as it ever has been. Modern medicine and quicker, better trained and greater numbers of EMS crews are the only think that accounts for a decrease in homicides in recent years. Asshole!
They also won’t tell you about the people shot in robberies. The media should ask for a simple count of how many people now have bullet holes in them that didn’t have bullet holes yesterday.
I have been retired for sometime... but as I recall the Uniform Reporting Code -- Agg. Bats... are counted as number of victims......
Ron Rewers Ret CPD
The way I was taught many years ago was:
1 dead = 1 homicide
2 shot + 1 dead = 2 agg batts + 1 homicide
5 shot = 5 agg batts
This is what the FBI UCR required.
J-Fed must not of been taught this at Quantico!
I have always been curious about how the stats are compiled. Are they from arrests? From what's charged ? What they finally plead to ?I know there are always a ton of counts on petitions , but they usually end up pleading to a misdemeanor ( a mugging/ robbery becomes a theft from person, etc). Also, are crimes counted where there are no arrests or reports filed ?
Just to play the devil's advocate, UCR (Uniform Crime Reports) do support this madness of reporting Incidents vs. Victims for most Index Offenses. This has the effect of reducing actual stats. The exception that proves this rule is Homicides, where victims are counted.
UCR stats are counted the same way per the feds all across the country, so it tends to be a decent relative barometer between states and cities if not an accurate accounting of the costs of crime in victims.
Hmm, how about planting doctored ammo in high crime areas? You know, stuff that will fuse weapons when fired.
Help me out here because I'm confused. Do they mean that if I shoot and kill 15 people, when I get to court I'm only going to be charged with one murder? Ya see what I mean?
And if Roderick Drew can't explain why statistics are compiled the way they are, he doesn't deserve the position he's in. But then all those assholes get shuffled around from one cushy job to another, city to state, county to city. You start to recognize their names in the papers.
---not a cop
HEY, HARD WORKING TAXPAYING CITIZENS OF SHITCAGO, ARE YOU PISSED OFF YET?
Each shooting victim is associated with the UCR 041A in CHRIS. Therefore when you do a search of the number of 041A's in data warehouse EACH victim is associated with an 041A.
Each victim IS Counted. It is one incident but there are multiple victims. This is how it works in the National Incident Based Reporting System. N.I.B.R.S.
We used to use the Summary based reporting system. We now use N.I.B.R.S.
I am not pulling these terms out of my buttocks.
Each victim IS Counted.
To resolve such issues on counting VIOLENT crimes, consult the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Handbook. The UCR Handbook can be downloaded using the GOOGLE search engine.
Pay specific attention to the Hierarchy Rule
(1) Criminal Homicide (Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter)
(2) Forcible Rape (includes attempts) Vaginal (or attempted) penetration only. Does not include oral/anal, etc.
(3) Robbery (includes attempts)
(4) Aggravated Assault (non-fatal)
To further clarify UCR scoring, offender(s) accost ten women at one time and location. All are raped, robbed and shot. Only one expires from her injuries. Using the Hierarchy Rule, score as only one CRIMINAL HOMICIDE. Period.
The CPD may or may not comply with this UCR criteria.
"I have been retired for sometime... but as I recall the Uniform Reporting Code -- Agg. Bats... are counted as number of victims...... "
In other words, Squishboy and Flatface have been violating federal requirements and 'under' reporting crime to the feds.......(Note the Dick Tracy type names...)
.....and don't forget that all the money that is going for medical care on these shootings, stabbings, etc. would sure go a long way to keeping teachers in schools and police on the streets.
Historically, in capitalistic societies, the media played the role of outcry for political, economic and social elites and not for truth nor justice.
Today is it any different?
OT somewhat:
I'm not a cop, but know a few and they keep telling me to expect either Ron Huberman or little Tommy Byrne to end up as Superintendent. WTF? Really? Just wondering what the folks on the the beat would think of that...
I've used part of your post and one of your commenters on my blog (with full credit). You have the funniest, wittiest commenters found anywhere online. I've also kept a running day by day account of any Chicago shooting I could find online since the beginning of June. Although I know they are not nearly all the shootings that happen in the city it's still pretty eye opening and you might find interesting. http://www.stopthepresses2.blogspot.com/
I heard that certain "graze wounds" have been re-classified as aggravated assaults when they were originally classified as Agg Batt Firearm. This was done on a mass scale after the fact. One day the number for agg batt firearm was one thing and the next day the number was significantly much lower overnight. If this is true then the numbers have been manipulated to reflect a drop in crime when there is actually a rise. Does anyone know more about this?
The Uniform Crime Report classifies like this; CHICAGO DOES IT A LITTLE DIFFERENT:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/handbook/ucrhandbook04.pdf
Aggravated Assault—Firearm (4a)
The category Aggravated Assault—Firearm (4a) includes all assaults in which a firearm of any type is used or is threatened to be used. Assaults with revolvers, automatic pistols, shotguns, zip guns, rifles, etc. are included in this category.
The following scenarios illustrate incidents known to law enforcement that reporting agencies must classify as Aggravated Assault—Firearm (4a):
1. A man had an argument with his girlfriend. She left and later returned with a gun and shot the man, attempting to kill him. He recovered from his gunshot wound. The police arrested the woman. She was prosecuted for attempted murder.
2. While an officer was attempting to serve a warrant, the individual ran from her. The subject turned and fired on the officer, wounding her. Assisting officers caught and arrested the individual.
The hierarchy methodology of UCR scoring can be very misleading in that it does not assess the egregiousness and totality of a crime. As an example, I will cite basic facts of the "WICHITA MASSACRE" (see Google).
Two armed men, subsequently identified as brothers Reginald and Jonathan CARR, invaded a home in a relatively affluent section of Wichita, Kansas just before midnight during the Christmas holidays. The five law-abiding, even role-model occupants included three men and two women, all in their 20's. One aspired to be a priest; another a nun.
In the horror that followed, the Carr Brothers committed all SEVEN of the Part I crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft and other Part I theft. Add to that, torture with a golf club.
The invaders forced all to strip naked. They not only sexually assaulted the women repeatedly, they forced the male occupants to have sexual intercourse with their women friends as they watched and struck them with the golf club. As Jonathan Carr remained at the scene, brother Reginald drove each one in turn to an ATM to withdraw cash.
Several hours later, the Carrs drove all five naked victims to a desolate snow-covered soccer field. They were ordered to kneel side-by-side and were executed with head shots--except Heidi. As she heard her friends beg for their lives, she received the last head shot. Miraculously, the fatal bullet was deflected by a hair braid and Heidi feigned death as the Carrs drove off, running over their murdered victims.
They then returned to the original scene and using a victim's stolen pick-up truck, they carted off everything of value but the kitchen sink. Earlier, they had ordered Heidi to muzzle "Toto", her little dog. They then bludgeoned helpless Toto to death with the golf club.
Using the Heirarchy Rule for UCR, this most heinous abomination was merely scored as FOUR murders.
Based on courageous Heidi's information to Wichita homicide detectives, the Carr Bros. were separately arrested several hours after dawn.
Also note that while the Carrs were charged with over 100 felonies including capital murders, no "hate crime" charge was filed (all victims were Caucasian while the Carr Bros. are black). If you read the full account, racial hatred was manifest.
If you Google "Channon CHRISTIAN" and "Knoxville", you will find a similar crime which also involved torture. UCR total: Just TWO MURDERS. Period.
I strongly advise that some of our more sensitive readers do NOT read the graphic details of these crimes. It could cause a grizzled big-city homicide detective to vomit.
My point is obvious. UCR scoring can be very deceiving in assessing the enormity of specific crimes.
If you live in the city of Chicago, you stand a very good chance of getting beaten, stabbed, or shot. Get used to it. You live in a warzone with nowhere near enough police to even begin to keep you safe. Make sure to thank your ass clown of a mayor.
This is why we, as the police, need to start giving the "citizens" police reports when they ask for it. let's stop killing crime by non-reporting. make the report --> the stats get made --> more reports equals for stats for crime. it's like when someone shoots at occupants of a building and no one is hit. the case report is for "criminal damage to property" instead of aggravated battery w/firearm, aggravated assault w/firearm, reckless discharge, or the like. when someone shoots at an occupied building, it is never investigated by the overworked, undermanned detectives, because the case is put in the circular, "suspended" file. even though the dix don't have the manpower to investigate shootings where no one is hit, it should still be reported properly.
THAT will reallly make the stats show the real nature of what's going on in this city.
Can anyone tell me if Cook County Morhue can supply you with the correct numbers for death's ruled as homicide. The Morgue should know because every death goes to their office and get's a determination/ruling for cause of death.
P.S.
Does getting beat or shanked to death in CC jail count as a homeycide? Is this not counted because it's on CC's property and it happened inside? Just wondering.
Here are a few additional questions to ask jfled.
How many multiple victim shooting incidents have there been?
How many shooting incidents were there where multiple shooters took part?
How many gunshot wound victims were classified in a category other than Agg. Batt. or murder.
Is the "CPS student" that was killed, shot, etc. attending a CPS school on a regular basis? And, when was the most recent date of attendance and absence?
Was the shooter a " CPS student" , plus the second part of the above question.
And finally, to any witnesses, were you there at the time the (insert crime here) took place? If so what did you see?
Did you search junior before he left the house?
The list can go on and on.
Ask how many VICTIMS, not incidents. The results may surprise you.
A sidebar to my 11:04 AM post follows: This illustrates the effect of "politically correct" censorship by the mainstream news media (MSM).
In both the Wichita Massacre and the dismemberment murders of Channon Christian and her sodomized boyfriend Christopher Newsom in Knoxville, TN, news coverage was confined to the state in which the horrific homicides occurred. It was only through the Internet that the news of these depraved interracial slaughters got beyond Kansas and Tennessee, respectively.
Compare this with the worldwide news feeding frenzy that occurred after the separate murders of James Byrd, Jr. (a black man) in Jasper, TX and Matthew Shepard (a gay man) in Laramie, WY.
International media made both of those tragic cases into a cause celebre for "hate crimes" for over a year afterwards.
Yet not a word on Wichita and Knoxville.
The FBI is transitioning from the UCR system, which uses a hierarchy rule, to the NIBRS (National Incident Based Reporting System), which reports every offense separately, and multiple offenses against one victim. See this link. NIBRS FAQ
The CPD AIRA automated case reporting system is capable of reporting multiple offenses against the same victim.
we have had around 1100 shot so far in chicago in 2010 and we still have a long way to go---
I think it is also important to reiterate that since victims of crimes are having to wait longer times for police service (due to the low numbers of PO's on the street) that not all crime is being reported. I would think this would be one of the BIGGEST contributors to the "lower crime" statistics.
Gee...as a citizen are you going to wait around for hours to get your report for something you probably would just like to forget? An interesting comparison would be the number of calls coming in (of course discounting multiple calls from the same caller and address)...compared to the last few years. What are THOSE numbers????? Inquiring minds want to know!
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