Don't Worry - It's Not a Trend
When news broke late last month that Chicago police Officer Michael Flisk had been killed on the job, many Chicagoans had the same chilling thought: Not again.
Flisk was the fifth officer killed in the line of duty this year, his slaying coming just days after an off-duty cop was gunned down in his car, bringing the total number of officers killed to six. It solidified 2010 as the deadliest year for Chicago cops since the early 1980s, leaving many residents worried about the outbreak of violence against police.
Local and national criminologists agree that the string of police tragedies is a cause for concern, but they said it's far too soon to take the deaths as any indication of a developing criminal pattern.
How about someone look at the trend in attacks on officers across Chicago over the past three years. If we aren't mistaken, that number hasn't jumped by mere points, but by dozens of percentages accounting for hundreds of incidents. That's the trend everyone ought to be concerned with because it's leading directly to deaths.
Labels: stats, we got nothing
posted by SCC at 12:07 AM
36 Comments:
I also love how statisticians use numbers that benefit the viewpoint they are trying to make. Let's just analyze data from 2008. Then, lets just say this isn't a trend. It is sickening. Stats lie just as much as the assholes quoting them.
I'd be interested in seeing what the numbers look like for attacks on officers in the last say 5 years. Of course given the quality of department official numbers I might doubt them a bit.
Michael Flisk was killed by a shithead who should NOT have been let out of prison and should have been back inside because of parole violations.
David Blake was killed off duty and it may have had nothing to do with his being a cop.
Michael Bailey was killed off duty, but was in uniform. Probably over his car, but no arrests have been made. This might have been related to him being a cop. We just don't know.
Thor Soderberg was killed by a nutjob who should have been forcibly medicated and/or institutionalized. I hold "the system" and particularly the States Attorneys office accountable for that death. The shooter shot his brother years before and was not appropriately dealt with. The offender was clearly futz and the States Attorney charging him with hundreds of counts AFTER the murder doesn't change their fuckup earlier.
Thomas Wortham was gunned down in front of his family's home while off duty and out of uniform. It started out as just a shithead robbery over a motorcycle.
Alan Haymaker died in a traffic accident.
The only pattern I discern here, leaving out the Haymaker death, is that all the murders occurred in the black south side.
There's a pattern of violent lawlessness in the black community and when it reached middle class Chatham, the Wortham murder, we are truly fucked.
The one way to truly track violence may be to accurately track gunshot victims and knifing victims. Improvements in medicine mean people who would have died from their wounds a decade ago are now living.
I've been around since the mid 80's, all in patrol on the west side, and it's really not much worse or better than it was when I was younger. The only difference I see is that there are fewer shitheads around because the population has dropped so much in most of the black west side.
Cops always complain that things are getting worse. I imagine if we could go back in time we'd find Roman Centurions bitching about how things are going to hell.
Of course Rome fell so maybe they were onto something!
If five is not a trend that what is it?
"When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less." Humpty Dumpty
Question: During the past three years,who was the superintendent responsible for coppers plummeting morale?
Answer: The criminologists won't answer this one, but coppers can. A demoralized army doesn't display strength; enemies can sense this. The same applies to law enforcement in dealing with criminals. The gangs sense weakness, not strength; and with that: No respect.. This directly correlates with the skyrocketing attacks on law enforcement officers.
A police department with high morale is a motivated department; they seek out the criminal element. If they are demoralized, the criminal animal will seek and attack. This superintendent is responsible for the present morale crisis. For proof, why don't one of you mainstream reporters question the superintendent about the results of the "Morale Survey". If he refuses, file a Freedom Information Act?
this is the biggest slap in the faces of the departed. FUCK YOU TRIB, and the asshole who wrote it, assholes
Can anyone help out? Old and retired here, but what was the rule in the detective division when distinguishing between a crime pattern and a crime trend?
All from the same group of geniuses that still think communism will work, if just the right people are in charge.
I'm not sure exactly when these dopes get their common sense educated out of them, but I really wish they'd shut the hell up unless they have something useful to say.
Like killing insects with a baseball bat. WTF This is a waste of time money and effort. How many cops are in the analysis unit? This is a painful insult to the working cop. We nead a true leader that has both police and military experience.-Semper Fi
http://www.policeone.com/officer-shootings/articles/3017185-Chicago-cops-accused-of-being-jumpy/
Aggravated batteries to police officers have gone up ever since the late 1980's.
You havent seen anything yet folks.
We have what under 10,000 taking the test in this tough economy,and what will the city hire maybe a total of 300? Yea boys and girls we are safe PLEASE no matter what call,traffic stop or whatever everything else can wait protect each other!
Try and tell this to the murdered officer's families.
GFY!!!!!!!!
Until a law is passed in Illinois that releases officers from punitive damages or law suits completely, like judges, you have to be crazy to work like we did even three years ago. The Department is adrift because of poor leadership. I'm sure if you spoke to WEISS one on one he would tell
tell you he didn’t pick carothers, wedster, penny, etc. I'm sure now he sees that his attack on COZZI was a mistake and resulted in this mess he's in now. In summary, with all the new people seeking office we need a push for new laws, like police exemption from punitive damages, double jeopardy prosecution with civil rights violations and finally, term limits.
Of course it is a trend if you factor in the unsuccessful murders and other attempts to harm officers, all those shots fired, aggravated assaults, etc.
But first you have to count them.
The fact that journalists, and criminologists, and police chiefs and elected officials (here and elsewhere) choose to say this type of thing at any time, but especially in the wake of a policeman's murder, sends an unambiguous message: Police are not fully citizens anymore when they put on a uniform. Their civil and human rights, and only their's, are dismissible.
The real blame lies with the courts, where these attitudes result in leniency for killers and future killers.
THE ONLY TREND THE MEDIA LOVES TO TALK ABOUT IS HOW MANY SHITHEAD GET SHOT BY THE POLICE!
IT GIVE THEM A CHANCE TO SAY
UNARMED
TURNING THERE LIFE AROUND
GETTING THERE G.E.D
ONLY LOCKED UP FOR "MINOR" FELONY
WAS MINDING HIS OWN BIZNESS?
A "Criminoligist" is nothing more than an anti-police liberal professor who is there to only justify the behavior of "the element" and then "teach" that to his/her students.
Want proof...Northwestern University and the University of Chicago
Generally agree with Centurious (except the guy in the Flisk case had to be let out when he was under his sentence -- armed robbery is a day for day crime). When you look at the individual cases -- horrible as they are -- it doesn't suggest a trend. Also recall that, for all the complaining, laws here have gotten more not less punitive -- e.g. Agg Batt to a cop w/o bodily harm is now a class 2 felony -- used to be a class 3, used to not get charged; murder w/ a gun used to carry 20 at 50%, now carries 45 to life at 100%; the minimum for armed robbery with a gun is now 21 (was 6 when the jag in Flisk caught his case). Bad shit has happened to police this year. Bad shit happens to police. It shouldn't but civilization isn't coming to an end.
the bottom line is its an opinion from some over educated jagoff who thinks they know everything and has never put on a uniform. They have no clue what the "thin blue line" is and never will.
I'd bet that there would be a trend emerging had those killed been, oh let's say college professors.......it's never a factor until it becomes a personal problem with these dicks.
Dear P.H.D.s,
Maybe you can take a break from Marxism and do a real study. Find a direct correlation between murdered police and lack of manpower.
The mayor and the media hate the police. Their outright hatered for the police has a direct effect on the way others view police officers.
What to expect in 2011. Google Unified Quest 2011
chaos is around the corner. be prepared
Gun not at the ready and trusting the person approaching you. Have a gun where you can get to it before the asshole can get his.
what are the stats:
2010 total persons shot vs
persons dead
worst year of 60" or 70s, same stats
are their more shot and just less dying?
Figures lie and liars figure.
If there is any "trend" going on here it's pretty simple:
The assholes out there are no longer afraid of the police.
I retired in 09 after nearly 36 years, and I can remember when it was almost unheard of to attack and kill a uniformed police officer. Now it seems tragically much more common, as we've seen.
Times have changed, and certainly not for the better.
O/T how about all of the threats coming from, District, Area and Unit Sgts. You have to threaten members of your units to attend your Christmas parties "you should all but at least two tickests to the party to show support for the commander,even if you don't attend especially you management people".... so if your on days because your on management20% you shpuld purchase two tickets even if your not attending? Pay to play just never stops around here....Hey you Tact Sgts who were never on a Tact team as a PO, or you unit Sgts who were never in a unit as a PO, or you Sgts in the "D" who wre never Dets....Here is a big Merry F#CK YOU! Suck ass for your unearned spot and buy four tickets if you want to, but do not threaten me asshole. Merry F#ck You! and stick the tickets up your AS$
Dyla Hata
Hey criminologists, thermometers have degrees, and you know where we stick them!! Up yours!!
A common "trend" is family violence. The scum that jumped into Officer Densey Cole's police vehicle has a family that enjoys violence. His brother is one of the four charged as adults in the murder of the Fenger high school student. Am I the only cop to have noticed this "family trend?"
Of course it is not a trend. It is actually UNDECLARED URBAN TERRORIST WARFARE (at least in my opinion). As much as I fear for the safety of my wife and myself (both civilians, which is one reason why I live in a home with plenty of loaded firearms), I fear more for the safety of all P.O.s of all the P.D.'s in Crook County. This is because every one of you fine people are on the front lines. God Bless every one of you. PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF YOUR PERSONAL SAFETY. Some civilians do care about all of you P.O.s and are thankful for the job that you do; I am one of them.
From a citizen troll: First off, its an alarming trend already. Sorry professor idiot class, not only is there a trend now in Chicago, LOD deaths are up 24% nationwide this year per ODMP. And when I looked up this number, irony prevailed. The pop up rememberance was for one CPD officer Harl Meister killed during a robbery at 5601 S. Cicero 12/23/74. His 8yr old son also was shot in the robbery. It does not seem like rocket science to me. You keep violent people in prison for a very long time, until they can be violent no more. And they don't get a day off for each day of good behavior. Bad behavior earns them loss of any benefits they do have and solitary confinement for a lengthy period of time until they get it. A beating would be better but we would not want the various social justice advocates alarmed at such a punishment. The shit bird who killed the Fenger student is found quilty and goes to prison until he is 21. Now I would not call that justice, corrections or protecting us from this little piece of shit from killing someone else again. And I place the blame squarely on the Madigans and Cullertons. These people control the state legislature and they ought to be more interested in law and order than their political power. And I especially expected more from Lisa Madigan. Guess it is too ambitious to expect the AG to overhaul or at least beef up the criminal code making it difficult for criminals to operate with impunity in Illinois.
A "crime pattern" is a series of crimes committed by the same offender(s). A "crime trend" is a series of similar style offenses, usually, but not always, within a small piece of geography.
O/T how about all of the threats coming from, District, Area and Unit Sgts. You have to threaten members of your units to attend your Christmas parties "you should all but at least two tickests to the party to show support for the commander,even if you don't attend especially you management people".... so if your on days because your on management20% you shpuld purchase two tickets even if your not attending? Pay to play just never stops around here....Hey you Tact Sgts who were never on a Tact team as a PO, or you unit Sgts who were never in a unit as a PO, or you Sgts in the "D" who wre never Dets....Here is a big Merry F#CK YOU! Suck ass for your unearned spot and buy four tickets if you want to, but do not threaten me asshole. Merry F#ck You! and stick the tickets up your AS$
Dyla Hata
Ah, the joy of having enough time on the fuckin job to NOT HAVE TO KISS ANY ASS. I haven't attended a Xmas party in the better part of 14 years. FUCK THAT! I have seniority enough to keep my 2nd watch assignment via bid. I answer my radio calls, do the minimum in the way of report generating, and take my ass home. Sat in roll call last week, shaking my head as the watch commander "strongly suggested" the 20%ers purchase party tickets. I couldn't believe he'd come straight out and say it like that, in front of the room. Well, watch selections were posted two days later. Guess what? Though they'd heeded the WC's warning and purchased the $65.00 tickets, most of the 20%ers had been DUMPED to 1st or 3rd watch. Let that be a lesson to all who buy party tickets in hopes of it assuring them a spot on the watch.
OT:
What's the deal with limiting the extention of 13th period furloughs? Was just told that my 13A can only be extended for by 4 days. What the fuck! Is this happening in other districts?
What's the deal with limiting the extention of 13th period furloughs? Was just told that my 13A can only be extended for by 4 days. What the fuck! Is this happening in other districts?
It's going on in 011. Four PO's who are already on 13A furloughs were called at home and told they'd been denied several days of extention. In one case, over a week was taken away. And they wonder why morale blows. PO's heading to 13B furloughs have already been told that 5 days is the most they can extend them. Think about that...most guys with 13th period furloughs have quite a bit of time on the job. And they're bing treated like PPO's. This administration and it's ill-appointed bosses can't come to an end fast enough. Is it 15 Mar 11 yet?
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