Not the Weather? (UPDATE)
Oh the fun you can have with statistics. You can even discover things that others seem to ignore. Remember how McNotSkilling says that the weather has nothing to do with crime? Here's a chart someone made for us:
As you can see, it covers a recent 29 day period. We aren't scientists, but those peaks and valleys seem to follow kind of closely. Not exactly of course, but enough to rule out pure coincidences. Add in another variable:
Even the low temperatures show some correlation to the amount of shootings.
We do believe that this could be a doctoral thesis to some enterprising college grad student. A bunch of data collection, a few FOIA requests and "presto!" You could be the next supernintendo of the Chicago Police Department.
We do believe that this could be a doctoral thesis to some enterprising college grad student. A bunch of data collection, a few FOIA requests and "presto!" You could be the next supernintendo of the Chicago Police Department.
UPDATE: Superintendent's nickname changed to reflect his inaccuracy as opposed to Tommy Skilling's actual accuracy.
posted by SCC at 12:05 AM
37 Comments:
Don't forget to figure in full moons.
Woo-OOO-ooo...
if we were like L.A with nice weather year round we'd be screwed. thank god for winter. keeps the #s down.
Thank you! Expect to see my paper examining that very hypotheses.
SCC, may I respectfully request that you not refer to the superintendent as McSkilling?
Skilling is forthright and very accurate.
Maybe McNotSkilling would be more appropriate.
Rapper 50 cent said it best, " summer time is the killing season, it's hot outside and that's a good enough reason."
ODPO shot in attempted robbery in 008. Up and talking on scene.
Any time 9.5 or McWhiskey bust out "trends" or "stats" I think of this and crack up. A page from their playbook.
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png
Just heard on radio PO is in good condition, Thank God!!!
nice work. now lets make it really easy for the media. Check out the real manpower data for the CPD. You will find that we are on par with LA in per capita police. We do not have more police per capita then NY, LA or Philly.
He's using 2011 data of 12200 sworn officers. Misleading and unethical.
im sure youve heard by now but an off duty 007th district officer was shot tonight on the west end of 008. He was shot three times in the chest but no major organs were hit so he should be fine. The officer shot back and possibly hit the offender. This all was during a robbery and the offender fled in a vehicle making good his escape. No west end cars were even close to where this happened when the job came out. All those missions on the east end are more important I guess... get well soon officer.
"Nothing to see here.
Just an increase in the increase of violence when there's an increase in the increase of temperature.
It's just like a decrease in the increase. Only opposite.
Can't youse understand? This all makes sense. Now let me show you some CompStat numbers over here..."
- McCharts & Graphs
The problem is that you didn't graph the political bullshit in with that chart. That throws off the curve and yields a drunken jackass who tells stories about it being too hot near the cool water at the beach. That's the only place the temperature makes a difference to them.
Ok pretty cool, so why don't we make shirts and send them to all the brass and of course all the aldermen as a nice Xmas gift!!! Lets not forget the racoon looking guy!! Yes the mayor!!!
The Body Count in Vietnam
HEy LBJ
You know that the spin doctors will find a way to make those charts look like crime is going down.
FOIA Request? Yep, great tool used by government to hid data they have, but don't want you to see. CLEAR only goes back 90 days........give me a break.
as far as the weather, yes that as well as day of the week, time of day can help, but crap neighborhoods are not made or fixed in a weekend, a month or even a year.
Watch out, McCoors will have the weather channel on his next comstatic...
Don't forget what Mark Twain would allways said about statistics:. "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
We don't need to slice and dice the numbers, they speak for themselves.
Chicago policeman shot off duty near home during attempt robbery.
http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/544/article/p2p-73639646/
Stay safe, and always carry.
What's going on with WGN reporting that an off-duty copper was robbed and shot, and police are checking to see if video corroborates his story?
Seriously? WTF kind of reporting is that?
I live just a block away and won't take out my trash without my gun. Has anyone seen all the gang graffiti behind the 7 Eleven at
63rd and Oak Park? The ghetto and Welcome City are expanding. My advise is to the citizens is to own a legal firearm and get ready.
Don't forget to figure in full moons.
Woo-OOO-ooo...
12/10/2012 12:08:00 AM
"Nothing to see here.
Just an increase in the increase of violence when there's an increase in the increase of temperature.
It's just like a decrease in the increase. Only opposite.
Can't youse understand? This all makes sense. Now let me show you some CompStat numbers over here..."
- McCharts & Graphs
12/10/2012 04:14:00 AM
ha ha ha!! love these two posts!!
Also, another cause & effect obvious to those more observant then the average Bear...
'Tis the holiday season where the criminal element is out in abundance looking to steal whatever they can in pursuit of Christmas gifts or stuff the can be sold for cash for the holidays.
McNotSkilling would probably dispute that this time of year results in a higher propensity for theft, but I've sure observed that it does and I'm not a cop.
When asked where he had got his information he replied, "authentic sources—many authentic sources". He pointed out that he "was a professional, doing his job".
-Wikipedia
The above quote is attributed to the former Iraqi Minister of Misinformation, Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, or more commonly known as, "Baghdad Bob".
It sounds like something McNotSkilling might say.
1st of the month and warm weather = a hole lot of Cobra dead on the streets.
Now you know and knowing is half of the battle
Off Topic, I went with the family to The Goodman Sunday night. Lots of police presence as it was letting out, I guess Rahm doesn't want to have "family of four from Lake Forest, robbed " as a headline during Christmas.
Either way, thanks for being there.
For the love of God CLOSE THE BEACHES!!!
Hurry, before it's too late!
Can someone e-mail this to Supt. Mcdumass?
"SCC, may I respectfully request that you not refer to the superintendent as McSkilling?
"Skilling is forthright and very accurate.
"Maybe McNotSkilling would be more appropriate."
12/10/2012 12:41:00 AM
I second that. Tom is simply too decent of a fellow.
Perhaps we could draw better comparisons of the Mayor, Police Superintendent, etc. using the worthless, sniggering dirt that follows the Channel 9 News.
Something involving the half-man in "2 1/2 Men."
"A bunch of data collection, a few FOIA requests and "presto!"
...the Prime Directive being that endless grant money is needed to maintain a perpetual state of everything being "reviewed."
"if we were like L.A with nice weather year round we'd be screwed. thank god for winter. keeps the #s down."
--12/10/2012 12:15:00 AM
"Rapper 50 cent said it best, "summer time is the killing season, it's hot outside and that's a good enough reason."
--12/10/2012 01:32:00 AM
"Here's a chart someone made for us: As you can see, it covers a recent 29 day period.
--SCC
...and wait until some fool opens up in a "club" on Christmas Eve, etc.
As the quoted "popular music" says better than I ever could, we are dealing with a very distinct and identifiable culture in which mindless violence is a goal.
"Can't have the police acting like cowboys."
Better to have people acting like animals.
THE BIG CRACKDOWN
News reports today that Emanuel is "defending his crackdown" against Preckwinkle's "You can't go around arresting everyone."
Punch whacks Judy, Judy smacks Punch.
Lots of hitting going on in this town. So when's Kyle's next court date?
Oh -- local media -- the other one's name is Vanecko, not VanEcko.
Well maybe the idiot in charge, since he's so good at closing beaches due to "heat", he can declare martial law and impose a dusk to dawn curfew..... Damn, hey SCC, how many shot in broad daylight???
Oh well it sounded like a good McDimwit idea.
Anonymous said...
The Body Count in Vietnam
HEy LBJ
12/10/2012 06:30:00 AM
I recall when some anti-war group that was keeping track of the Vietnam body count issued by the Pentagon announced that according to the Pentagon, every man, woman and child in the whole of Vietnam had been killed so the war must be over.
Those Pentagon folks then came to Chicago to issue numbers and stats.
Media are affecting to freak out that there ISN'T snow.
Lead story. No snow.
Shocking expose' -- reporters going to city yards, revealing "piles of unused salt!"
"Abnormal" isn't the word.
PO 5-1313
FI 7-1313
WE4-1212 was weather, I seem to remember. Somehow we survived.
What was the one for "correct time?"
Is there one today for "which way is up" or "correct planet?"
O.T. Whats with the Det's working overtime last weekend on orders of the McOvertimeonlywhenIsayso to recontact victims of minor crimes and auto thefts and then unfound them if dude misplaced the hooptee or does not want to prosecute the offender anymore to reduce crime at the end of the year? Anyone have any further info.
with the weather getting colder so crime will naturally drop, will Gary be dumped soon. Will it matter? we are broke beyond repair
O.T. Whats with the Det's working overtime last weekend on orders of the McOvertimeonlywhenIsayso to recontact victims of minor crimes and auto thefts and then unfound them if dude misplaced the hooptee or does not want to prosecute the offender anymore to reduce crime at the end of the year? Anyone have any further info.
12/10/2012 05:54:00 PM
nope, you've about covered it.
Is there one today for "which way is up" or "correct planet?"
12/10/2012 04:19:00 PM
much like the area specific 'pollen count' daily updates, there should be a daily 'thugs on the street count', though the volume of data might be overwhelming.
Glad to see Tom Skillings name cleared and not associated with that bi-polar acting, number fudging superintendent to ever disgrace a Chicago Police Uniform.
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