Levine Spanks Rahm and Garry
- Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy and his boss, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, on Monday touted a 69 percent drop in homicides in Chicago last month and a 42 percent drop from the first quarter of last year.
But the reality about the number of murders is a little more complicated, CBS 2 Chief Correspondent Jay Levine reports.
If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have thought they were saying Chicago’s safer than it’s been in 50 years. In reality, it was simply a return to normal after a huge spike early last year.
Take a closer look at the numbers: 2013′s 70 first-quarter homicides was a major improvement over 2012′s 120 – but not over 2011 or 2010 or 2009.
We did a quick skim of the numbers yesterday. We have no idea if Levine picked up the idea from here, but a reasonably intelligent species of plankton could have expanded on the numbers we pointed out:
- 2013 - 70
- 2012 - 120
- 2011 - 75
- 2010 - 75
- 2009 - 70
2012 was the aberration. Period. Everything else is business as usual.
And the claims that the homicide rate is dropping to levels not seen since the 1950's is based solely on the POPULATION DECREASE in the city of Chicago. This is an amazing abuse of numbers, but as Mark Twain said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Welcome to "statistics."
And the claims that the homicide rate is dropping to levels not seen since the 1950's is based solely on the POPULATION DECREASE in the city of Chicago. This is an amazing abuse of numbers, but as Mark Twain said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Welcome to "statistics."
posted by SCC at 12:03 AM
79 Comments:
http://www.swchicagopost.com/2013/04/cpd-bulletincriminal-sexual-assault.html
The best way to figure out whether violence is increasing or decreasing PER CAPITA is to track gunshot victims.
Given the improvements in medical care over the last decade a whole lot of bad and some good people are surviving gunshot wounds that would have killed them early last decade.
We may have a similar number of deaths, but a whole lot more bangers shooting each other and on occasion innocents.
It seems to me that while the overall murder rate may have held steady the last few years, barring 2012, the rate of serious violence has gone up.
Perhaps someone who speaks Brooklynese can explain that to our esteemed entitled and has a history of drunken anger issues Superintendent. I kid Superintendent McStreetlights. Really I do.
"...reasonably intelligent species of plankton..."
I love it.
And isn't it truly amazing, the similarity of this report to the post put up by SCC only a few hours earlier!
Must just be a coincidence.
Then IDOC Is up to this "he state of Illinois has started sending home inmates early under a revamped sentence-reduction program."
When is the next Sgts class starting?
Levine is dissing Rahm? Levine once threatened to punch out another reporter who was asking Rahm some tough questions,when Rahm was running for Mayor. Caught on video. Or else Levine is going with the homicide rate story to put it out there,for the eventual firing of McCarthy.
I still think it was McDrunk and his New York compstat that saved the day.
Of coarse, I've overdosed on KoolAid. Gee, it's hot here near the cool water.
Levine is part of the problem. He is a libtard socialist who can only pick up when the situation he helped to create has gotten completely out of hand.
OLD MARK was right ,nothing but "damn lies" from polititicians.
omg! somebody better double the dose of levine's kool-aid.
and send him back to the Tiny and Mc514 "reeducation" camp.
as we see the weather will be a projected 52f on thursday.
if true to form then we should be around 25 homicides for april(it shows around 25 in 4-2012) if not 30 like in 2011.
Compstat is an abbreviation for "cherry picked numbers", that's all.
Very unusual. Levine has been Emanuel's chief ass licker for the last two years.
Hope springs eternal.
CompStat at it's finest.
The real surprise is Jay Levine. He decided to commit a random act of journalism. Normally he couldn't find a couch in a living room.
Adding to the total were the 3 honor students and/or pillars of the community shot and killed by the CPD. Plus:
- 3 individuals pulled from the river after a long, non-voluntary swim.
- A woman who was found dead in Douglas Park the other day.
- Recall the strange story of the man run off 57 a month or so ago?
In other words, there's more to add to the official count, it all depends who is doing the counting.
Illustrating Chicago's Murders, Homicides, Violence and Idiocy at heyjackass.com
People hate numbers and believe whatever makes them feel good. The term is "Reversion to the Norm" and it's why mediocre baseball players who get lucky during their contract years also get rich.
Looks like another Daley may be seeking to replace Rahm.
".. truly address the many homicides committed in America's cities, lawmakers also need to ensure there are real consequences for illegally carrying a gun on the street. Regardless of whether or not the gun was lawfully obtained—carrying one illegally is a more serious offense than possession, since it is directly linked with high murder rates."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323605404578383072938628386.html
if you look at the fist half-hour on 29Feb13 you notice a 100% reduction over last year.
Meeting over. No questions at this time.
I think you can look at the numbers until you are blue in the face.
But a good, evidentially-backed rule of thumb is simply this.
GARRY IS FULL OF SHIT!
We cops are not low-information Chicagoans. And neither is Levine. Kudos Levine. Kudos.
This whole new Initiative is a farce. Unlike MSF, SOS and any other Focused Mission, the Sgts. make no effort to get people to make arrests. How do you justify this kind of expenditure without a corresponding return in arrest activity? The Initiative is hollow, without substance and when they stop spending the money the stats will shoot through the roof. Meanwhile the Media will start to complain about POs making 120K per year with all the OT.
Judge Judy always says if a teenager is talking, he/she is lying. If she lived here, I bet she'd say the same about the mayor and the superintendent.
Who the fuck do they think they are fooling? The coldest and snowiest March in years, even the knuckleheads don't fuck around as much. One night of reasonably warm weather and all hell breaks loose.
More with less isn't working
how many murders were there in the week of 80 degree weather in march of 2012? there were at least 6 or 7 days of 80's plus weather, not that weather has anything to do with the joy of murdering someone...this march was too cold for the sport of ghetto hunting, too hard to shoot with the puff coat on..
Our fearless leader spouts nonsense saying no Robberies downtown over the weekend. Could it be, that is because, all Robberies have been reclassified as Thefts? Once again semantics and fun with numbers. When will this carpetbagger be shown the door?
And isn't it truly amazing, the similarity of this report to the post put up by SCC only a few hours earlier!
Must just be a coincidence.
4/02/2013 12:27:00 AM
Don't complain, we bitch when the media does not report the truth. We actually tell them "Hey, look over here" and almost challenge them to see who has the bigger set to actually run with the story.
Kudos to Jay.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
When is the next Sgts class starting?
4/02/2013 12:40:00 AM
It started today. Guess you're not in it.
With all our technology I do not understand why the department still counts a shooting as one incident regardless of the number of people actually shot. Think that skews the statistics somewhat?
Really..we do not have the ability to keep track of how many folks have holes in them at the end of the day that they did not have at the start of the day.
Year - Average mean temp Jan thru March - Homicides
2013 - 28.43 degrees - 70
2012 - 38.87 degrees - 120
2011 - 27.70 degrees - 75
2010 - 23.47 degrees - 75
2009 - 27.93 degrees - 70
I wish picking horses was as easy as predicting when Chicago would see a rise in the murder rate.
FUCK jay Levine.
Where has MIke Shields been lately?
rahmmie has now been spanked by his favorite reporter levine
best spanking was from CPS Teachers Union President and the FOP President and Members of the CPD Sergeants union .
Off topic no special or side jobs for month of Aug. If you think that won't get some attention your nuts I understand times are tough but if you can't sacrifice a couple days $500 to $800 to make a point, you got much bigger problems. In the long run will be worth it. I have 20 yrs enough time to get special, just chose not too. I don't judge just asking for 1 month, 1 of the hottest no special.
Anonymous said...
When is the next Sgts class starting?
4/02/2013 12:40:00 AM
Today!
You just missed it, but you can always start next time there's a class.
OT - florida state trooper is fired for not writing a speeding ticket to a state rep. - and the asshole was a republican who bitched about not being written WTF- i hope this guy gets his some day!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/videogallery/75155967/A-day-at-the-South-Side-s-only-trauma-center
Seems this doctor from Christ Hospital speaks the truth.
Better medical care equals less homicides.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-trauma-one-violence-20130402,0,1393562.story
Violence isn't down. It's just the medical care is getting a whole lot better.
Mayor Rahm "PINNOCCHIO" Emanuel and New York Gary "PINNOCCHIO McCarthy are the best at BS number game. Gary thinks he is in NY and Emanuel only he knows where he is. More Police is the answer.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
When is the next Sgts class starting?
4/02/2013 12:40:00 AM
It started today. Guess you're not in it.
4/02/2013 09:11:00 AM
Just left a meeting at HQ. List will come out FRIDAY. 100 will be made. 70 off the list. 30 merit. 25 Lt's in two weeks. Then 50 detectives and 25 ET's.
I wish picking horses was as easy as predicting when Chicago would see a rise in the murder rate.
4/02/2013 09:16:00 AM
i don't shoot horses.
that would be......
Chalkie
The real surprise is Jay Levine. He decided to commit a random act of journalism. Normally he couldn't find a couch in a living room.
4/02/2013 06:37:00 AM
he must have been off his meds.
jay levine just decked rahmmie!!
rhammie was a bad ass , naked in the shower with congressmen when he had barry on his side .
now , rahmmie is a little fish swimming in the cpd and ctu shark tank and he losing every battle .
little mikey will rip him a new one.
Liar liar tutu on fire.
Also note that the announcement comes on the first day of April.
Death Investigations are not counted in the Murder stats. Even though in the coming week or weeks these can be upgraded to Murders.
Why not have this feel good press conference in mid April when you have a more accurate count.
Sorry. I forgot. You don't want an accurate count.
You want to bend the numbers that make the administration look better.
Hey Garry, as long as your nose is already growing, why don't you tell everyone again that the city is not hurting in any way by being down about 1500 Police Officers.
Then roll out another "NEW" strategy that's been done ten times before.
If you have forgotten the oldies but goodies choose from the below listed;
Pull Officers From Desk Jobs,
Increased Foot Patrol,
Mobile (Task/Strike/Tru) Type Force,
Enforce Quality Of Life Issues (broken window theory),
Better Tools (computer programs / contact cards),
Community Policing,
Get Help From Felons, Clergy, or Felony Clergy, etc. etc. etc. etc.
March was only three below the 5-year moving average. Not much to write home about. Plus, the SUP always talks about "reported" crimes downtown and we all know the victims to D/T do not sign complaints and go to court.
With all our technology I do not understand why the department still counts a shooting as one incident regardless of the number of people actually shot. Think that skews the statistics somewhat?
Really..we do not have the ability to keep track of how many folks have holes in them at the end of the day that they did not have at the start of the day.
----
This is the way the FBI setup the UCR system in days before high end computers when number were crunched by hand. Academic and criminologists have complained about this for years and the all the UCR rules.
Also, if a person is shot and robbed, using the UCR rules, this is not a shooting, it is coded as a robbery. 12-people get shot at one address is one "shooting".
Try again...there is no current list for ETs. And currently there is no ET selection process / test under development either.
Why arent any of you going to shops on Mich ave on ur own and pitching personel store security at $35+ an hour? With this crap happening its a fairly easy sell, i did it
Years ago NYPD got nailed for cooking their numbers feds started scrutinizing them and they had to be legit or loose federal $. Why is this mush doing it here now where he would be held accountable?
Levine is a huge Rahm cheerleader, don't be fooled!
If anything, the international shame and embarassment wrought by the wildings, may have caused Rahm to the realize that Garry is ineffective.
Levine is just carrying out orders from Rahm. Believe nothing from the media on it's face, Nothing. The media is a tool of propaganda, deception and indoctrination used by the establishment to keep the rest of society blind, ignorant and molded.
OT: from a fan of Cgo Police Officers...we originally went with what most Police were calling for----a change at the top....NOW, after much thought, we have changed---keep Garry McCarthy....he's better than most..the devil you know is better than the one you don't know...remember that phrase??
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
Rahm is great at numbers. Made 19 million with inside investments at Fannie May. This was during the housing crisis. How many idiots who lost their homes or stuck with lowered property values voted for him in the mayoral election.
OT - florida state trooper is fired for not writing a speeding ticket to a state rep. - and the asshole was a republican who bitched about not being written WTF- i hope this guy gets his some day!
4/02/2013 11:29:00 AM
Had he wrote the ticket, the result would have been the same. Damned if he did, Damned if he didn't.
"With all our technology I do not understand why the department still counts a shooting as one incident regardless of the number of people actually shot. Think that skews the statistics somewhat?
Really..we do not have the ability to keep track of how many folks have holes in them at the end of the day that they did not have at the start of the day."
Funny you mention that because McCarthy said today that we are down 134 shootings, which means that is 134 less people with holes in them!
Somebody please tell him he should ask Chief Tracy if that is true, because it is not.
Charles Thomas and Jay Levine are bought and paid for by the 5th floor don't think for one minute they are going to break bad and they know if they do they will be iced out by the 5th floor.
OT: from a fan of Cgo Police Officers...we originally went with what most Police were calling for----a change at the top....NOW, after much thought, we have changed---keep Garry McCarthy....he's better than most..the devil you know is better than the one you don't know...remember that phrase??
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
I'm sorry, but from where do you get this perspective? his media grandstanding B.S.. Ask anyone that has come in contact on the job with this idiot or guys that have had to work for him to understand just what a lying, egomaniac this man is. He has affected the moral of this department at every level. If nothing else, it will serve as a moral booster to see this outsider go.
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
I have zero trust in this man, he is a media whore that takes full credit for every success that occurs in this department and deflects the blame for everything that goes wrong. He is just a big a liar as Rahm, do not include the word trust with any conversation relating to him, just ask the guys in T.R.U. if he can be trusted with his word
OT: from a fan of Cgo Police Officers...we originally went with what most Police were calling for----a change at the top....NOW, after much thought, we have changed---keep Garry McCarthy....he's better than most..the devil you know is better than the one you don't know...remember that phrase??
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
4/02/2013 06:48:00 PM
what's with this 'we' shit?
are you one half of a siamese twin?
Why arent any of you going to shops on Mich ave on ur own and pitching personel store security at $35+ an hour? With this crap happening its a fairly easy sell, i did it
4/02/2013 06:11:00 PM
do you really want to announce your cheap whore status here?
Rahm is great at numbers. Made 19 million with inside investments at Fannie May. This was during the housing crisis. How many idiots who lost their homes or stuck with lowered property values voted for him in the mayoral election.
4/02/2013 06:53:00 PM
Bullshit! It was only $18M!
TD 9.5
Rumor has it et and fi will be replaced with civilians , really you don't have to be a cop to process a crime scene .
OT, sort of:
Garry, there's such a thing as being accessible. Then, there's being a media whore. Really? ANOTHER interview on Chicago Tonight tomorrow? What a waste of airtime.
Anonymous said...
OT: from a fan of Cgo Police Officers...we originally went with what most Police were calling for----a change at the top....NOW, after much thought, we have changed---keep Garry McCarthy....he's better than most..the devil you know is better than the one you don't know...remember that phrase??
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
4/02/2013 06:48:00 PM
Well, WE don't.
The real surprise is Jay Levine. He decided to commit a random act of journalism. Normally he couldn't find a couch in a living room.
4/02/2013 06:37:00 AM
he must have been off his meds.
4/02/2013 03:16:00 PM
No; the th floor is setting Garry up nto be the fall guy. Soon Rahm will oh-so-reluctantly 'have no choice' but to let him go.
5th floor
On Wednesday, 03 April 2013, at 1900 hours, G-GOOF will spout more of his nonesense and bullshit on Channel 11-WTTW's Chicago Tonight program.
There is an ET list call FOP however they aren't making any anytime soon .
homicide which occurred in the 14th District on 28 March involve a homicide and an aggravated battery with a firearm report was changed 2 only include the homicidethe aggravated battery with a firearm was eliminated from the report because it was deemed unnecessary overkill the incident question in law the homicide victim in a second victim who is the victim of an aggravated battery with a firearm. The city at work!!!!!!!!
Anonymous said...
OT: from a fan of Cgo Police Officers...we originally went with what most Police were calling for----a change at the top....NOW, after much thought, we have changed---keep Garry McCarthy....he's better than most..the devil you know is better than the one you don't know...remember that phrase??
Letting McCarthy go will not change the direction or mood of the city or its officials---and if left to his druthers...we think he's a Policeman's Policeman....We'd trust him over others....
4/02/2013 06:48:00 PM
See, the Supt's. office does post on the blog!
To 02:36:00 -
You have no clue what you're talking about, do you?
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Rahm is great at numbers. Made 19 million with inside investments at Fannie May. This was during the housing crisis. How many idiots who lost their homes or stuck with lowered property values voted for him in the mayoral election.
4/02/2013 06:53:00 PM
Now that's a new one. I didn't know of his love for chocolate.
if i have 75,73, 74, 72, 75, 72,71 murders in consecutive years. Then obviously the last year is the lowest total 7 years. Does that mean its a dramatic decrease? No crime fluctuates. People from the press do some investigating, ask a question don't just take their word for everything
02:36 am . . . you speaketh in tongue?
How is McDrunky better than most. What has he done that hasn't been done in the past under a different name, aside from going on TV and spouting numbers. The man is so full of shit he thinks he invented police work. Everything that we are doing now goes against what he preached when he got here. Flooding an area with police who don't normally work there is bad for the community but when he does it it's OK.
Garry Mac should grow a set and dump his merit command staff back to Lt. not XO . He should then Promote some blue shirts and sergeants with leadership skills.
Many with blue shirts and chevrons that were earned will do a much better job .
He has to take into account ,most cpd command staff is made up of people that were promoted by merit , not test scores . In reality the majority of commanders would be pushing a beat car .
On Wednesday, 03 April 2013, at 1900 hours, G-GOOF will spout more of his nonesense and bullshit on Channel 11-WTTW's Chicago Tonight program.
4/02/2013 11:31:00 PM
It is advertised that he's going to talk about "the dramatic decrease of homicides in the first quarter of [2013] the year".
Anonymous said...
homicide which occurred in the 14th District on 28 March involve a homicide and an aggravated battery with a firearm report was changed 2 only include the homicidethe aggravated battery with a firearm was eliminated from the report because it was deemed unnecessary overkill the incident question in law the homicide vicntim in a second victim who is the victim of an aggravated battery with a firearm. The city at work!!!!!!!!
4/03/2013 02:36:00 AM
I can't decipher what you just posted. I'm thinking, if you were the report-writer, your supervisor can't fathom your narrative and that's the real cause of the confusion.
Anonymous said...
02:36 am . . . you speaketh in tongue?
4/03/2013 10:11:00 AM
EXACTLY!!! I read it several times and still couldn't figure out what the fuck he was trying to say!!!
When is the next Sgts class starting?
Monday.
Which Monday is to be announced, however.
Liberal Carol Marin must live on or near the Mag Mile because she handed McDummy his ass on Chicago Tonight last night.
Post a Comment
<< Home