Crime is.....NOT Down?
As stated here and elsewhere, this is the danger of relying too much on short-term number counting as opposed to observing the longer trends of year-to-year or even multi-year patterns. This is what happens:
- Chicago had the exact same number of murders in the first five months of 2014 as it did through the same period last year, police said.
Forty-two people were murdered in the city in May, raising the total number of killings to 137 — the same as in 2013 and a 34 percent decrease from the 207 slayings through the unusually violent first five months of 2012, police said.
So in a real statistical model (not CompStat), you could say we were maintaining the status quo, at least in terms of homicides. 2012 was the outlying year. But Rahm and Garry have hung there hats on "double digit crime reductions!" by not even counting arson, reclassifying robberies and lord knows what other foolishness and ::whoops!:: here we are, at the exact same spot as we were a year ago in terms of homicides. Who looks like the lying moron now? Isn't he running for mayor or something?
And delving deeper into the stats, we find this:
And delving deeper into the stats, we find this:
- Despite the city recording the same number of murders as last year, the 840 people shot in the first five months of the year is an 11 percent increase from the 754 people shot during the same time last year, police said.
Uh oh - that's a double-digit increase. So now what?
Labels: stats
posted by SCC at 12:04 AM
80 Comments:
Right where we were at last year, and we had a more harsh winter.
CHIRAQ !!!!!!
That's how it's done Rham.... Keep up the lying, no one believes you not even the savages on the south and west side.
And to McBarstool ... How you gonna spin this one???
I love to see failure at the top ..... Go fuck yourself
Give me my retro and VRI While Iaugh all the way to the bank!
Honestly any real homicide percent reduction is due to weather and the skill of CFD Paramedics and ER docs more than anything City Hall or McStreetlights could come up with strategy wise.
"Uh oh - that's a double-digit increase. So now what?
Time for a "new" strategy!
That, or devise a new way to hide the true numbers.
...even after the coldest recorded winter in recent memory
SCC says: Uh oh - that's a double-digit increase. So now what?
-----
Why, Rahm will DEFLECT!! He will wave his arm and a NEW STRATEGY will magically appear. And maybe, for good measure, a NEW SPENDING opportunity, like, oh, you know, something 'for the children'.
So, ya got a crime problem on your hands, and it may be getting worse. What to do? Pray.
Total battle casualties include KIA and WIA. That's how you total them, shitbirds.
Now spin that, you commie bastards.
They had meant to say... errrrr lemme see..... oh yeah that's a double digit increase in the decrease therefore it is what we say it is.
So Rahm Emanuel is exposed for his lies!
So much for a future Presidential bid.
Great work reporting SCC !!
Who is this Garry character?
................and COMPSTAT has been cancelled this week while they figure out how to spin this one.
Murders, people shot... Those are not the meaningful metrics, OK? What counts is the number of shooting incidents. Why? Because the police cannot control how many get in the way of a bullet or whether the victim lives or dies. And it took my college professor, a cop no less, to make me understand this.
Bergdahl is a traitor!!!!
Semper Fi
There are also several "deaths" waiting to be reclassified to homicide pending. However, now the Area Det Divisions have to wait for the approval from 35th St before doing this. Those approvals are not coming. This is a big change in operations.
The only ones who believed Rahm's stats in the first place was Rahm and Gerry. Everyone else knew they were BS. Great post SCC, tells it like it is.
The city has filed suit against drug companies for false advertisement but allows the continuing false reports of crime numbers. REALLY!
Chicago wake up from your dreams crime if higher than you think.
All these strategies are making my little weenee hurt.
Now, kees me you fool!!!!
No description of offender in north side bar or strip mall on 87th and Marquette .
That $100 million on VRI is working wonders. Well, at least for us as we can pay our bills with no problem. But is sure doesn't seem to be impacting the violence. Another failed McComstat strategy. I said this about Weis, now I'll say it about McCarthy - "Quit. Leave. Just go away and take your east coast nonsense with you."
my sisters ,ladies have respect as women and stop sleeping around to get promoted how disgusting. ladies if you are married stop fucking around .
(OT) so,done posted in another thread that the shooting was getting closer to canaryville Bridgeport area,and 2 days letter a murder right in Bridgeport, shot in car.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-man-dies-after-weekend-shooting-in-bridgeport-20140603,0,7126716.story
Bridgeport years ago was a safe area, now the crime rate has skyrocketed, lots of gypsies and burglaries, now murder.
No way McCarthy is going to last much longer. He is known here for his drunkenness and womanizing more than his crime fighting strategies. The McCarthy experiment was a complete failure.
"When plans fail, the planners continue planning."
As long as it remains bangers killing bangers, who really cares?
What about the CAPS program?
They must have really tried everything. Because the departments latest response to all the shootings is that you have to wear your hat now.
Gary will be coming on the news any day now to inform the people that he has a "new strategy " to combat the violence that has a grip on the city ( really he means the south and west side and no help for tax paying areas of the city ) although the numbers show there is a significant decrease in violent crime and you should have nothing to worry about we are going to roll out a new strategy
Has ABC7 shut down their comment boards?
So Rahm Emanuel is exposed for his lies!
So much for a future Presidential bid.
Great work reporting SCC !!
------------------------------------
What do you mean? He's following in the footsteps of the "great-one".........
Only if we had a hometown president in the White House. Maybe the city could receive some grants and resources to help combat the violence. Wishful thinking!
SCC is there any way that we can see the increase in death investigations compared to years past. Seems like there's a lot more popping up lately. Also is there any reporter out there that can ask McIdiot about the death investigation that took place in his building heard everyone except him was thinking that it sure looked like a homicide. I should say everyone except for the Sup thought there was something out of place with this one. Any Det. On hear that could shed some light on this situation.
Wow! Interesting Link in that article -- how the M.E. counts Homicides vs McClueless & his phony Compstat numbers. which I'm sure the taxpayers don't know about.....
'Chicago Police and the medical examiner’s office use different methods for compiling their numbers. The medical examiner’s office number includes people killed ... by police officers, crashes ruled homicides and killings in city limits investigated by Illinois State Police'.
Now if memory serves, last year there were quite a few murders on the expressways in Chiraq. That's something that never happened, but last year there seemed to be quite a few, and it sure seems like a growing trend by the urban savages, and will be more and more common. So it defies logic and common sense that they wouldn't be included in 'Chicago's Homicide Totals'.
Seriously, who gives a rat's ass which Police handle a murder, or if it was on I-55 at the Damn Ryan, or Archer Avenue & Damen? If it's in the city limits and someone gets whacked it's a 'Chicago Homicide'. How hard is that to understand, huh Supt McBullshitStats?
Or if you get clipped with a 9mm Glock or rolled over by a Chevy Impala, what's the difference? Dead is fucking DEAD! Include them in the totals.
Too bad the Slum-Times doesn't PUBLISH that info more about the 'extra murders' McJerk's stats don't include. Now would that piss off 9.5 and McFailure, yeah, big deal. Who the hell are they? The 'PUBLIC', aka taxpaying suckers, has a right to know the truth when hey hear 'Crime Is Down'.
an aside: Chalk up another in the Homicide Column for June. David Hernandez, who was shot in the head on Sunday had the temerity to screw with McDrunk's stats and died on Monday.
Sounds like the read praise should go to the paramedics for a higher life-saving percentage in 2014.
? still have heard from the new fop president what the hell is he up to. where are the rep which were suppose to come to districts is this another liar.
I still blame our lame worthless bosses.
The city is up for grabs and all these incompetent bosses are concerned with are our fucking hats??! In 015, we're constantly berated about our fucking uniforms! 015 leads the city in violent crimes and Babs, DS and EV are worried about stupid baseball caps while on the street. What the fuck is going on with our department??!??
015 used to be the best place to work until the current regime. I'm just glad its almost time to retire. I'll just coast in my coosh spot and enjoy my summer furloughs while Austin burns
Take my BB cap and shove it as far as I'm concerned.
The problem is deep rooted and can not be fixed by any strategy or individual person. These individuals have no respect for self or other. They were not raised to function in a normal society and have no value or honor system. How can you fix an individual that has not been programmed to fit in with society--You can't. The best thing the government could do would be to place heavy restrictions and penalities on all of the social services and freebees given out to these misfits. For example, you want a free place to live you have to subject yourself to dug tests and must commit to so many hours of community service and continuing education. Also, if you have children they must be in school and maintaining an average of C- to be eligible for welfare services; parents must also attend all parent functions unless they are excused by a mber of the social services system. Changing the behavior of the misfits will take time and will not be over night. Welfare should only be a stepping stone when needed not something to strive for as so many of these people end up doing. Start talking about the real issue and stop trying to put a bandaid on the problem. These people must be treated in a manner that provides them with consequences and sever punnishment. limits should also be placed on welfare receivers. Everyone should be employed even if on welfare. Just my thoughts. Lastly, the problem isn't about race it is about greedy, lazy unsocialized people in our communities that don't contribute because they believe they are owed something. Nothing is owed to anyone. If you want success in life you have to work your ass off for it and maintain a level of honor and self respect.
" So what now? ". Why more Divvy bikes with matching bicycle lanes and speed cameras, safe passage zones and a few more taxes.
Yep, that will solve the problem.
Oh, yes, and get rid of SCC and Heyjackass.
For the children.
Soo...
In the end... The constant barrage of all these singing, dancing, wildly gyrating, madly twitching/blinking as if struck with some affliction numbers has yielded the sum equivalent of...
Dick-All...
Weasel Words.
Slippery Syntax.
Redefining Words, Terms, Definitions and Numbers
to mean NOTHING that they used to.
Use and cynical employ of a compliant and beholden media apparatus to alter and shape perception/re-image what people see happening at ground level.
All of that just to arrive at THIS destination?
This has to chafe Rahm and his $25K+ a plate dinnermates pretty badly...
They can't solve these savages so they use them as one of the many levers to pry money from the pockets of a more or less captive remnant of a formerly thriving middle class and again using them as an electoral and civic firewall to keep the middle class from taking the city back... At least long enough for the muni-gov/corporatist/money conjurer buccaneer confederacy loots the municipal treasury completely.
When it all falls in, they could blame the "Greedy Cops" and drive a wedge between the public and the men and women on the thin blue line.
The Police are the enemy...
All the noise about crime, and the wildings and eye slapping for an I-Phone and other foolishness in the Business Core will disappear as if it was never happening...
THEN?
They will do what they always do. They'll lie and they will deflect proper action by pointing to shiney oblects, guns.
They won't talk about 50 years of failed Democrat policies that bankrupt the city and state.
They won't talk about a systemically disfunctional public school system that can't educate half it's population adequately enough in the basics of reading writing and artithmatic.
They won't talk about those that can are fleeing the city and state because of high taxes, corruption and mismanagement and the lack of tax revenue multiplying manufacturing jobs that employ people across a broad range of skill sets. All the while illegals surging in as congress talks amnesty.
They won't talk about a bloated ineffective county court system that is inneffectual at serving justice and punishing criminals.
They won'talk about the inordinate amount of crime attributed to the black community and why that is.
They won't talk about babies having babies.
The won't talk about the drugs, gangs and crime that being a sanctuary city cultivates.
What they will do is run around giving speaches calling on more blind spending of money we don't have telling people what to eat; debating if kids can sell lemonade and if spending $100 million on an Obama LIEbrary is the best way to spend $100 million you don't have.
All the while, carping...guns guns guns and that the lack of common sense gun laws are the problem: lets video all purchasers.
How about a photograph of all registered voters at voting precints on election day? Ohhhh no. can't have that.
There are a lot of problems. Guns aren't even among the top tier.
The top problem here is a Chicago born and organized leftist Democrat rico-racket sucking the life out of the city, state.
Nationally, its the same home grown culture of money, power, greed and corruption in D.C.
We just traded one american to those dedicated in a generational war of cultures for -- five -- of their top of the top tier leaders -- bent on killing us because their religious beliefs dictate they destroy us because of our judeo-christian culture. There religious beliefs accimodate NO other faiths -None.
Yea...the "War is over".
And the trade was done in total disregard for our laws regarding congress.
Laws ignored, just as Daley did with Meigs.
We gave the Talbian everything they asked for. No negotiation on giving them the five they originally named.
The negotiation was like a Chicago no-bid contract or the sale of the parking meters.
Congress can't get the time of day from the Chicago moulded administration for negotiations on a broad range of things, at least the few in congress that actually still have a pair can't.
The Talbian? Whatever they want not a problem. Just name it. Whadda you want. What can we do for you.
But, but prisoners are traded at the end of a war?
They lie to us unabashed.
The war against the Talbian and there ilk will go on for generations. Is there a memo we have surrendered?
BTW isn't it actually an "Operational Contingincy Operation" according to these Democrats?
Guns are the probem?
In a pigs eye.
SCC you got it wrong; it is a decrease in the increase when compared from a time frame of their choosing based on what suits them best.
The question no idiot main stream news reporter asks is this- why is it that Chicago has a higher per capita murder rate than it's other three peers of New York, Los Angeles and Houston?
I said this before.....last year was an huge AMMO shortage. More ammo is going to show up. Lots of payback not done in 13 will be done in 14.
More and more lies surface on behalf of rahm and garry. Nothing new here.
Our gangbangers are like no others in America. The only problem is over 100 murders this year and over 800 shootings. Those numbers have to even out a little like 400 killed and 400 shot. We need more murders. Rahm and Garry are clueless. You saturate one area and they just move to another.
OT: A getto copper would be a better mayor because?
This is funny is any main stream media hey Jay Levin or one of u others so let me get this right people are getting slaughtered in the city and this mayor has time to go on TV shows????? What a tool
McCarthy finally admits wielding incidents happened last weekend.Being reported on news media.
OT
The Sgt Test Scores are on hold until after the mayoral election in Spring 2015. Expect at least four more classes from the old test.
More people shot, yet fewer deaths. The answer is simple: thugs need to practice more. As a certified firearms instructor, it is my sacred duty to offer my services.
I'll be moving from New York City to Chicago later this month. I'm closing on a condo on the Gold Coast. While I may not be taking my evening strolls in Central Park anymore, I've always enjoyed walking down Michigan Avenue and over to Oak St. and North Ave. beaches. I'm also interested in visiting the Windy City's cultural attractions on the South and West Sides.
I find it most relaxing to take midnight rides on the subway trains. My condo is just a few minute walk from the subway station at Chicago Ave. and State St.
See you soon!
"So Rahm Emanuel is exposed for his lies!
So much for a future Presidential bid."
--------------
Civilian here. Hate to burst your bubble but, in the immortal words of the former Secretary of State...what difference does it make?
So far, no credible challenger for next year's mayoral. He has tons of money in the bank. He is the darling of the both Left Coasts' media/entertainment moguls. He is hailed as the "alpha" mayor. And he still is not called on the carpet for failing to meet the city's legal obligation to fund the pensions (and if he fails to meet the deadline, who is going to file - and fund - the lawsuit?)
Come on, get real. This guy will stay in office for as long as he wants and he will leave according to his timetable, not anyone else's.
Total battle casualties include KIA and WIA. That's how you total them, shitbirds.
Now spin that, you commie bastards
And EPOWS! LoL
Sweep the numbers under the rug and no one will know. LOL
Eliminate elective time off in Patrol for the rest of the summer. Tell your Alderman and Mayor Emanuel we need less police on the street and more VRI.
WBBM Radio is reporting a weird, content-free "teaser"-type story, something about "people were relaxing on a beach (somewhere) when a small plane had to make an emergency landing there," leading into "and Supt. McCarthy will be addressing what happened on the beaches here over the Memorial Day weekend and how to prevent it from happening again."
I can't find anything more specific on the web right now -- Mayor Finger must be standing on the lid of the pressure cooker with both feet. After all, important French clowns on fifty-foot stilts will be coming soon, along with brother Ari's numerous and profitable "festivals," and we don't want to queer the act and scare the tourists away.
Same as last summer...and the summer before...
Pray for Natasha McShane, the "rich white bitch" beaten nearly to death for the offense of carrying a purse. She is probably going to be slumped in a wheelchair, crying, for the rest of her life...
More anti-violence marches should stop this.
Garry was looking quite bewildered on the channel 7 news at 4 o'clock this afternoon when he was speaking about the 6 people shot at the laundromat last night. Rahm has to be all over his ass about the violence and it's showing.
One has to wonder what's up The Great Rahms sleeve and what he will pull out of his magic yarmulke. The entire south & west side hate him. Northsiders will feel the hit when he has GWhizzoMac deplete those districts to bombard the south.
Toni Preckwinkle is going to do very well in the 39th,41st, and 45th Wards.
The people know that Rahm thinks they'll vote for him just because he's white. They also understand that he does nothing for them.
Even the yuppies in the 47th are starting to turn on Murder Mayor.
Thank You,
First Responders,
Doctors, and Nurses,
for not allowing those extra shooting victims to become Murder Victims.
Just think of what we could do at full Manpower Levels.
Just think how many more crimes could be solved if the Det's were all promoted by how they actually scored on an Objective Test.
Ditto for Sgt's, Lt's, and Capt's.
What's that? It's time to wake up already?
OT: Hey SCC, the annual First Responder Bowl is this Saturday, June 7th at Brother Rice on the SW Side. The CPD Enforcers will be taking on the CFD Blaze at 3 pm, with proceeds from our end going to the Chicago Police Memorial Foundation and the Mercy Home. This is a great family-friendly event, as tickets are $10 and any child under 12 is free. You can head to www.cpdenforcers.com for more information. The Enforcers are 3-1 on the season and have a chance to host the NPSFL National Championship. Thanks for your continued support!
OMG, an increase in the decrease? Whatever shall we do?
We need a decrease in the increase...
Better get McStreetlight on it...
Anonymous said...
(OT) so,done posted in another thread that the shooting was getting closer to canaryville Bridgeport area,and 2 days letter a murder right in Bridgeport, shot in car.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-man-dies-after-weekend-shooting-in-bridgeport-20140603,0,7126716.story
Bridgeport years ago was a safe area, now the crime rate has skyrocketed, lots of gypsies and burglaries, now murder.
6/03/2014 08:10:00 AM
Bridgeport years ago was a safe area ... because the Daleys were living there. John doesn't count as much anymore as his brother or his father.
Anonymous said...
No description of offender in north side bar or strip mall on 87th and Marquette .
6/03/2014 07:40:00 AM
If a description wasn't give then we all know who it is- a male black. If you go to Wrigleyville, you will see about 35% of the patrons are ghetto thugs. When I say ghetto thugs, I mean the full tilt and I am sure they are carrying firearms as well.
my sisters ,ladies have respect as women and stop sleeping around to get promoted how disgusting. ladies if you are married stop fucking around .
So..it's ok to keep sleeping around if not using it to get promoted? just cause of boredom is cool?
I have a new idea.
Put dancing bears in the hood.
That will keep the bangers entertained for a couple of weeks...months if some fool gets ripped apart by a bear because he was messing with it.
Does that mean that the decrease in the increase has stopped decreasing?
We told you before Rham......if you want to save Chicago you have to do what Peter Pan did when Tinkerbell was dying. Clap your hands Rahm! Just keep clapping!
Thank god for all the murders. Bring back unlimited VRI so I can furnish my new retirement home. Last years VRI money paid for it's down payment!! Cha Ching !!
my sisters ,ladies have respect as women and stop sleeping around to get promoted how disgusting. ladies if you are married stop fucking around .
So..it's ok to keep sleeping around if not using it to get promoted? just cause of boredom is cool?
6/03/2014 06:16:00 PM
Yes, definitely. Sounds cool to me.
sgt results not going out till late November, talk now of at least two more classes from old test.
We are saved! The minister of defense his self,
Bobby Black Panther Rush will be holding a meeting with all sorts of O fficials to turn beat 624 from the most violent to the safest beat in the city.
Gerry, why didn't you call the minister two years ago?
All of this shooting could have been avoided.
http://www.wsiltv.com/news/local/Marion-Bank-Lets-Tellers-Carry-Guns--261174921.html
my sisters ,ladies have respect as women and stop sleeping around to get promoted how disgusting. ladies if you are married stop fucking around .
So..it's ok to keep sleeping around if not using it to get promoted? just cause of boredom is cool?
6/03/2014 06:16:00 PM
Yes, definitely. Sounds cool to me.
6/03/2014 08:27:00 PM
Retired after32 years, never slept around to get promoted. Did fuck
around if someone was hot or I was bored. Single so never embarrassed anyone . Important to me me was stayed within my rank or below, FYI admit right now to drunk posting. Miss the job. Miss the guys and girls but doing great without it all. Remember what is important. Take care of each other on the job and have fun.
V.R.I. is the Fredo Corleone of the C.P.D.
Bergdahl is a traitor!!!!
Semper Fi
__________
Devil Dog learn to read between the lines. All that "traitor" coverage is to take away and distract the public from the massive neglect by the VA on the veterans current health care providing and the number of veterans that have died because of the direct neglect of the VA on our veterans. Same with the missing Malaysian flight. Remain united or divided we will fall.
Semper Fi,
BEH
Behind Enemy Lines
This is a good solid argument that McCarthy should be canned BUT even more important, Rahm can't handle a big city- how can he handle anything larger?
Time for a reality check.
Murders, people shot... Those are not the meaningful metrics, OK? What counts is the number of shooting incidents. Why? Because the police cannot control how many get in the way of a bullet or whether the victim lives or dies. And it took my college professor, a cop no less, to make me understand this.
You are correct. Even LTC Grossman talks about this in his books and lectures. Murder rates are flexible and not a true measure of violence. It's the number of people shot and shot at that counts. As he so eloquently states, if not for paramedics, trauma docs and advances in medical science, the murder numbers in the U.S. (and Chiraq) would be through the roof. Just imagine how many people this year have been shot in the head or chest one or multiple times and lived? Everyone one of those incidents is a murder prevented. And shooting are UP this year even though murders are about even.
Retired after32 years, never slept around to get promoted. Did fuck
around if someone was hot or I was bored. Single so never embarrassed anyone . Important to me me was stayed within my rank or below, FYI admit right now to drunk posting. Miss the job. Miss the guys and girls but doing great without it all. Remember what is important. Take care of each other on the job and have fun.
Single and never embarrassed anyone. You are a po's dream.
You still hitable? and do you get bored often?
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