Simple Math for Tiny Brains
We were invaded by a couple of tiny brains who (A) deliberately lied about what we wrote, (B) tried to claim we were downplaying the risks of COVID-19 or (C) just wrong about the math. Addressing these in order:
- To the softball who claimed we were wrong about the "pandemic count," you can search until you're blue in the face, but you will never find the words "pandemic count" in any of our posts. Read Rule #9. The count goes up as more cases are discovered. That's simple - sort of like your mental processes.
- To those who say we're downplaying the risks, again, you will find no such claims anywhere in our postings. We are treating this as a public health concern affecting First Responders particularly as our jobs don't really let us sit at home. What we aren't doing is fanning the panic.
Lastly, we're going to do some math here for those insisting we're wrong about the lethality dropping. Death Rate is figured by (deaths divided by reported cases). We'll use little numbers so the tiny-brains can keep up:
- If one person gets COVID-19 and dies, the death rate is 100%
- If one person gets COVID-19 and lives, the death rate is 0%
Are you with us so far? One death divided by one case equals one. Multiply by 100 (because you're dealing in percentages) and you get the death rate. Let's try a bigger number
- If two people get COVID-19 and both die, the death rate is still 100%
- If two people get COVID-19 and one lives, the death rate is now 50%
You see how we did that? One death divided by two cases equals 0.5. Don't forget to multiply by 100 (we're still dealing in percentages) and you get 50%.
Now let's try the numbers for Illinois for the past week (all numbers cumulative):
Now let's try the numbers for Illinois for the past week (all numbers cumulative):
- 20 March - 11 deaths, 585 cases - .01880
21 March - 12 deaths, 753 cases - .01593
22 March - 13 deaths, 1049 cases - .01239
23 March - 16 deaths, 1285 cases - .01245*
24 March - 19 deaths, 1535 cases - .01237
25 March - 23 deaths, 1865 cases - .01233
26 March - 26 deaths, 2538 cases - .01024
Don't forget to multiply those numbers by 100 to get percentages (the first one is 1.88%). 23 March is the only day were the the death rate went up - and that was by six-thousandths-of-one-percent.
More cases are going to be discovered, probably thousands. And there's almost no way to track the people who are asymptomatic or recover without seeking medical help. But more cases doesn't translate into a higher death rate, especially if the medical community keeps up with or gets ahead of the sickness. More cases not resulting in death lowers the death rate even further.
Our statement concerning the death rate is accurate. We've taken courses in statistics. This in no way diminishes the suffering of those stricken and we hope they all recover as soon as possible. But attempting to attack us over the numbers provided by the Illinois Department of Public Health is silly. The death rate is trending downward.
More cases are going to be discovered, probably thousands. And there's almost no way to track the people who are asymptomatic or recover without seeking medical help. But more cases doesn't translate into a higher death rate, especially if the medical community keeps up with or gets ahead of the sickness. More cases not resulting in death lowers the death rate even further.
Our statement concerning the death rate is accurate. We've taken courses in statistics. This in no way diminishes the suffering of those stricken and we hope they all recover as soon as possible. But attempting to attack us over the numbers provided by the Illinois Department of Public Health is silly. The death rate is trending downward.
Labels: events, scc responds
posted by SCC at 12:09 AM
124 Comments:
Well said. And the truth.
When all is said and done, this is probably going to be the equivalent of an annual flu epidemic. But we ended the greatest historic economic growth in the country because of it. ALL propagated by the liberal media to "hopefully" take down Trump. And the best that they can come up with is Joe Biden? They would have been better off running Hillary again. We know that she would have gotten one less vote though, thanks to Jeffery Epstein's "suicide"!
I'm concerned, but not sure that the death rate isn't really improving, because we are calculating the rate before an entire lifecycle of the virus occurs, and as the quantity of cases increases each day, the total inventory of cases overweights the number of cases in the early stage before death, and under estimates the death rate. As you say, probably we will never test everyone and accurate numbers are very difficult to come by and I view the number of total deaths and the direction of that number each day as a lagging, but very solid indicator of the scope of the virus within our country. However nothing is perfect and as treatments hopefully improve or if certain areas of the countries become medical systems become overwhelmed and treatments decline, it will cease to be a reliable metric.
As the numbers show, this virus is not as lethal as has been stated by the less-than-honest politicians and media, and the overly cautious medical community. And the difference between this virus and other more normal flu viruses is that the mortality rate for the other flu viruses is always stated relative to the entire population, not relative to the known cases like you described with Covid. In the end, Covid will be not much different than other stronger-than-normal flu viruses that pop up every few years.
Awesome post
Nicely done SSC. For some people math was never their strong point. But that's ok. Many however, were still very successful in such academic endeavors as lunch and recess. Thank you for educating the less informed.
Very well said !
Let's proceed with caution, but let's proceed with life. Don't let the cure be worse than the disease !
With that said, we don't need bosses like Lt Princess Leia in 002 trying to crack down on POs during this situation.
Funny, I don't recall ever hearing about her being a hard charger in her 20 year career, but I guess it's hard to charge from the inside. Classic do as I say not as I did. This department would be so much better without the liberal frauds !
PLEASE Charlie start the PURGE !
Anyone (including SCC) who questions the lethality percentages that were posted by WHO, CDC et al. are guilty of Thought Crime. We were told by PHD’s and others with fancy degrees and titles that the death rate was 2-3%. Well not even close. Now I know how those anti-Vaxxers feel. Trying to get accurate reliable information about this “pandemic” in Clown World {Honk Honk}...is like trying to get accurate crime stats out of CompStat.
First ,all the death rate numbers are based on reported cases. Nobody can say for sure what percentage of people with the virus actually get tested to confirm it is coronavirus but it would be safe to assume that number is likely high. I would ask anyone who has had the any flu if they ever were tested to confirm? If in anyway it was possible to get everyone who had the coronavirus here and overseas tested the death rate would be significantly higher.
Second, the death rate is based on worldwide flu deaths. Despite the lefts constantly lecturing us on how horrible our health care system is anybody who has ever been treated in a hospital overseas or spoken to anyone who has might strongly disagree. The private hospital room is an American phenomenon. I am not only talking about the third world. My relatives who live in Europe (Ireland/England) have told me of the inferiority of their systems compared to ours. Two of my Aunts died in hospital “wards” occupied by dozens of patients. I have traveled the world and if I have one criticism of Americans it is that they have no idea how more advanced and wealthier America is than the rest of the world.
For these two reasons I believe we will see significantly lower death rates. But don’t be surprised to see the left fudge the numbers.
In Italy, the average age of the Coronavirus patients who died was 81 years old (and most had underlying conditions).
The average life expectancy in Italy is 83.
Not exactly overly alarming if you ask me.
I know 3 people who have contracted this disease and they know 3 people who also have the disease. 4 out 6 people have already been hospitalized out of the pool of people I know which have the disease
Raw data is all well and good, but statistics is about evaluating coefficients of variables. To predict we need to hypothesize these variables and then to take a meaningful sample. That is a distributed one rpresenting the population to be evaluated. An example is how Italy has be under reporting exposure and skewing data toward the elderly. Policy makers have a different set of rules than medical personnel, as an example. Back to the Italian snafu; the average age of mortality is 80 years for this syndrome. The average age of death period is 82.5. The victims all had serious underlying conditions. To shut down an economy will kill a different set, as can be imagined, as primary care is in suspension and mental health should be expected to have increased coefficient values. We are also have to not the respiratory distress in a population that has 30% nicotine addiction. Unless there is a well fitting model designed by professionals and not political scientists and the like, we end up with GIGO; Garbage In Garbage Out. We are also not being informed about the truly elderly (examples of 98 and 103) that have gotten over it quickly with a minimum of discomfort. Those people, from England and China respectively were non-smoker and survivors of total war. Yet they shrugged off this 'killer' disease? What this would indicate is that this is not a 'novel' virus, but is only now being tested for. If it were a truly novel virus, those folks would not have recovered. Epidemiologists know that testing is the easiest way to create an exposure; what was supposedly non-existent is now multiplied merely by the act of recording an insignificant number. This isn't a new plague, it is just a political tool by governments that desire additional controls. China killed a rebellion in Hong Kong, France is using it to stop weekend rioting, Italy can close borders at EU expense. The list goes on.
It's not the end of the world, though the cure itself could get out of control
Michigan has 2856 positives and 60 deaths. That's more than Illinois. Not once did the MI governor or big city mayor blame Trump for anything. Nor did they throw hissy fits or scold their citizens.
All of the other states have leaders who thought on their own and used their states resources to find solutions to this crisis. None rambled with big meaningless words nor gave themselves credit by stealing ideas (like Pritzker and Lightfoot).
STFU chubs and stubs. You are embarrassing fools with huge egos.
I am 90% sure I had COVID-19 earlier this month. Sick for 2 days with 102 fever which I have not had for 2-3 decades, no sinus infection, extreme fatigue (more than any other time I have been sick) and it all started with a heavy feeling in my lungs. I went to my doctor who said I had influenza but did no testing to confirm what type. I got over it a few days. This was early this month before mass hysteria set in. I bet there are 10-20 people who have it for every positive test - some believe it’s been around since December maybe even November. So the death rate is probably lower as many of us are not counted b/c of no tests.
Your explanation was perfect. But perhaps still undigestable to the simpleton beefer.
Kudos on the math workings. When this all blows over, can you give us a primer on the rule on 72?
It may be that virtually everyone gets it anyway. A new model from UK scientist suggests the case fatality rate is far lower then previously believed but the number of cases may be several orders of magnitude higher.
At this point the only thing that is for sure is nobody really knows where this thing is headed and we probably won't know for at least another 10 days or two weeks.
WALSH: The Media Is Presenting A False Choice On The Coronavirus | The Daily Wire
https://www.dailywire.com/news/walsh-the-media-is-presenting-a-false-choice-on-the-coronavirus
What about the Coronavirus excess death rate?
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/what-about-the-coronavirus-excess-death-rate/
Okay, Smart Guys, What Do We Do Now That Wuhan Virus Is Here to Stay and the Economy Is Shut Down?
https://www.redstate.com/streiff/2020/03/23/okay-smart-guys-what-do-we-do-now-that-wuhan-virus-is-here-to-stay-and-the-economy-is-shut-down/
Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus? - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-hype-overreaction-social-distancing.html
Fear can spread from person to person faster than the coronavirus – but there are ways to slow it down
https://theconversation.com/fear-can-spread-from-person-to-person-faster-than-the-coronavirus-but-there-are-ways-to-slow-it-down-133129
Live in excess fear for no reason! That is the only way to live... Or not...
Ann Coulter - March 25, 2020 - HOW DO WE FLATTEN THE CURVE ON PANIC?
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2020-03-25.html
Common sense people!
So when the government starts to send out free money, what are the rules?
Is it that you can use the check for weed and hookers or is it that you ONLY can use the check for weed and hookers? Stimulate the economy - your rent or mortgage and your kids' needs will be fine I am sure...
There is always some regulation nonsense attached to government money handouts, fine print and whatnot.
Does Chicago have any whores and weed sellers around? This city is not known for immortality, wasting money and crime after all... Might be hard to find some.
Also, none of that legal and high taxed weed dispensary crap. Street dealers are the only real game in town.
So many babies are going to be born nine months from the end of this lockdown pandemic stunt ... What else you gonna do with your time? Got to pass it somehow...
And the percentages will be far lower than calculated- because every death is recorded, but not every CASE is recorded.
Testing is still very sporadic, and without a medically confirmed case, you can’t put that in the column and count it. People get it, quarantine, but aren’t being tested.
So many cases go undocumented, and many people have also had it already and were either asymptomatic, or just thought it was a regular cold or the flu.
At this time, once you have it and recover there is no test to tell you that you’ve previously had it.
So our recording process is designed to over exaggerate the fatality rate by design. In the real world, the fatality rate is far lower than calculated on paper.
What was the death rate of the H1N1 Virus?
"Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll."
That was in 2009, and that Administration did nothing...
Here's a question for our over fed governor. How many victims of COVID19 are waiting for a ventilator because none are available?
Mr. governor how many have died because no ventilator was available? Please answer.
The leftist controlled media and democrats purposefully blew this outbreak of Wuhan flu out of proportion for political purposes. Early on, I saw reports in the media of death rates being three percent. How can someone calculate the death rate percentage when it wasn't even known how many had the virus? Then some posters here took those numbers as gospel and started namecalling on this blog (typical leftist tactic) instead of keeping a cool head and looking past all of the hype and hysteria.
The democaratic party is finished, and so is the deceitful media.
Lets hope this situation they have created doesn't spin off into civil unrest, because if things get bad enough, I feel there are plenty of people out there who have a score to settle with them.
Any suburban arrests yet?
I got a statistic for you SCC. Since this pandemic started I have begun to realize that I am surrounded by more stupid people than smart. The dumbing down of America is on display for all to see now. And it can only get worse.
You know, you’re really sexy when you talk stern like that. Handcuff me this second!
The governor and idiot mayor do not have the brains of a flea. Cook County and Chicago have the most people and the largest population of seniors. Since when are we everyone's keepers!
To yet another tiny brain:
It doesn't matter if someone tested clean last week and then tested sick yesterday. We stated, right there in the post, numbers are cumulative. It's a running total.
Raw data is all well and good, but statistics is about evaluating coefficients of variables. To predict we need to hypothesize these variables and then to take a meaningful sample. That is a distributed one rpresenting the population to be evaluated. An example is how Italy has be under reporting exposure and skewing data toward the elderly. Policy makers have a different set of rules than medical personnel, as an example. Back to the Italian snafu; the average age of mortality is 80 years for this syndrome. The average age of death period is 82.5. The victims all had serious underlying conditions. To shut down an economy will kill a different set, as can be imagined, as primary care is in suspension and mental health should be expected to have increased coefficient values. We are also have to not the respiratory distress in a population that has 30% nicotine addiction. Unless there is a well fitting model designed by professionals and not political scientists and the like, we end up with GIGO; Garbage In Garbage Out. We are also not being informed about the truly elderly (examples of 98 and 103) that have gotten over it quickly with a minimum of discomfort. Those people, from England and China respectively were non-smoker and survivors of total war. Yet they shrugged off this 'killer' disease? What this would indicate is that this is not a 'novel' virus, but is only now being tested for. If it were a truly novel virus, those folks would not have recovered. Epidemiologists know that testing is the easiest way to create an exposure; what was supposedly non-existent is now multiplied merely by the act of recording an insignificant number. This isn't a new plague, it is just a political tool by governments that desire additional controls. China killed a rebellion in Hong Kong, France is using it to stop weekend rioting, Italy can close borders at EU expense. The list goes on.
It's not the end of the world, though the cure itself could get out of control
3/27/2020 01:40:00 AM
Hey! Sit down Smarty Pants. SCC was talkin’ (jk)
How about these numbers..500 shot / 100 dead
This is by far the best post I have read! KILL THEM WITH FACTS!!! Bravo 👏 👏👏👏
But, the death rate doesn't matter is the RATE OF INFECTION exceeds our ability to treat people.
That's when the rate of death will increase- exponentially, statistically speaking.
JB is an idiot, but with social distancing... The exponential growth of a death rate will continue flat
We have more confirmed cases in AREA central Detective division then the whole Fire department?
Could somebody be doing something wrong?
I will ask a white shirt.
Oops they got it to it doesnt care if you are merit.
Does Anti Trump Democrat Michael Bloomberg own John Hopkins, who publishes the covid virus heat map?
I'd like someone to donate $1,800,000,000 to me... And yes, I'll do what they say.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/noahkirsch/2018/11/18/michael-bloomberg-donates-18-billion-to-johns-hopkins-university/
SCC
OT but close to topic,
Where I work I see the amount of radio calls and was shocked.
If you do a search of wagon calls or Hospitalization reports.
You will see the numbers of Suicide cases starting to rise!
Watch it till they start to fudge the numbers.....
That is what I call the “ On The Beach “ method..... movie from early 60s
This virus is a perfect example leftist propaganda garbage. Complete fabricated garbage.
Can we just build a wall around these shithole cities like NY LA PHL BMORE DETROIT and every other shithole in this country and just let the virus burn out? It would be a loy cheaper.
EXCLUSIVE: Evidence Shows Director General of World Health Organization Severely Overstated the Fatality Rate of the Coronavirus Leading to the Greatest Global Panic in History
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/exclusive-evidence-shows-director-general-of-world-health-organization-severely-overstated-the-fatality-rate-of-the-coronavirus-leading-to-the-greatest-global-panic-in-history/
Relax people you will all be dead in 60 years anyway! Now go kiss your CO azz.
Can’t argue with the numbers.
Unfortunately, I also had some statistics classes and believe exposure to these teachings is evil, as it corrupts the brain with logic and skepticism. My affliction caused me to google annual death rates in the US (usually around 8.5%). If I can keep the TV off, hopefully I can avoid numbers of hospital admissions etc. and I'll survive this pandemic.
There is a lot of talk about healthcare capacity beds, ICU beds, ventilators, but no one gives the statistics on what our current capacity is and how much of it is presently occupied but covid 19 patients.
Why doesn't that slut mayor of ours do something about the shitheads butchering each other during this "corona virus crisis"?
bravo SCC. the theatrics of the left is in full bloom as real info on C-19 comes in.
two demorat governors are now on record not allowing hydroxychloroquine to be used on patients. what is governor fat ass waiting for?
the need for ventilators and ICU beds were greatly exaggerated by gov. Fredo.
AG Barr needs to be commended for the sudden emergence of masks and other PPE items with his simple warning.
this scam can end sooner if true voices of reason find their balls.
The reason the death rate in Italy is high is because they had an influx of approx. 300k Chinese nationals into the country who most likely were infected themselves and helped kill off all the older Italians.
Concern should be protecting food truck deliveries.the motto in the community has always been why do we have food deserts.remember, the food stores are an oasis.
Hey SCC,
We started tracking and posting daily stats for this about three weeks ago, but only for Cook County since that was as granular as we could get. As of the timing of this post, the case fatality rate for Cook is 0.95% (18 fatalities / 1904 confirmed cases).
We have been able to get our hands on some of the CCME's report and now have some insight into who has died thus far. Of the eight cases we have data for, 6 out of 8 are males, average age is 67 (age ranges from 54 - 78) and the kicker is all but one had at least two underlying and contributing conditions. 6 out of 8 had heart disease, 5 out of 8 had diabetes. COPD and cancer is showing up as well.
Side note: the case fatality rate for hi-speed lead poisoning this year is currently around 17%.
-WHT
SCC, for the tiny brains & rumor spreaders, I just got this from the CDC Website:
.. Know How it Spreads
::: There is currently no vaccine to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
::: The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to this virus.
::: The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
----- Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
----- Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
::: These droplets can land in the mouths or nosesinhaled into the lungs.
NOTE: I scanned the CDC WEbsite and nothing -- Nothing -- is mentioned anywhere about COVID 19 being spread by and/or through Ventilation Systems aka; air borne in ductwork. Not on Ships, Planes, or Anywhere.
btw, it's funny how you had to give a math lesson here for the 'tiny brains' (LOL). I guess that proves the old adage: Math is hard. It's even harder if you're a leftist. (rotfl)
Stay Safe out there boyz & girlz.
(1-Adam)
Thanks SCC for the memory trip back to Mrs. Hauser and her third grade math class. It was almost word fo word her way of describing “how to get percentages”.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
What was the death rate of the H1N1 Virus?
"Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll."
That was in 2009, and that Administration did nothing...
3/27/2020 04:09:00 AM
How dare you imply bad things about Black Messiah? (/sarc)
See, that's the problem right there. You are using mathematics to explain statistics to Chicago Public School graduates.
The only way to get a definitive mortality rate is to do retrospective testing of antibodies in a population to determine the actual penetration of the virus.
Here is an easy to use calculator that figures percentage instantly. I use it every day to reinforce my comments on articles. Use the second function -(blank) is what % of (blank).
https://percentagecalculator.net/
Lockdown would have made more sense for the ghetto shootings than this "pandemic".
There should be a purge for these politicians and useless CPD brass...
More simple math. 20,000 police and fire X 15,000 dollar average retro check = 300,000,000 dollars in the budget that the groot just grabbed. Followed by another bald face lie that she seen it coming.
The difference between Covid and the flu that everyone keeps comparing it to is that covid is NOT a strand of the flu. Covid is an upper respiratory disease. A huge issue now with covid is when it develops to extreme respiratory issues patients need to be put on ventilators and that is what all hospitals have a shortage of. Physical bed space in hospitals is an issue as well. Through different fly cycles you never see this many patients needing hospital stays which stains the hospital systems.
Do people really think the whole hospital systems here in the US and around the world are on some
Big conspiracy to get rid of Trump and bring down the US Economy by keeping patients in hospitals when they don’t need to be? If you do then you’re a nut job. Hospitals for the last decade are in the business of pushing patients out ASAP and don’t keep patients in there cause insurance companies will not approved additional payments for services not needed
SCC,
These people have no idea of a percentage.Tiny brain is one of those who argue how Caucasians are locked up and are the real cause of CRIME based on F.B.I.Stats
Anonymous Anonymous said...
In Italy, the average age of the Coronavirus patients who died was 81 years old (and most had underlying conditions).
The average life expectancy in Italy is 83.
Not exactly overly alarming if you ask me.
3/27/2020 01:09:00 AM
On a Fox News network show last night, it was reported that for the past years, the northern part of Italy has been populated by Chinese workers. A Chinese company bought some clothing companies to dominate the “Made in Italy” market. The epidemic in Italy began when the Chinese workers went back to their country to celebrate the Chinese New Year and brought back the Chinese flu! It was just another example of how China is working to rule the world! Not our friends....
And if the death toll decreases and falls to nothing, you know who will be up in a podium (on a step stool) grinning, saying her plan worked and demonizing President The Donald.
Great post. I had a boss that always used the maxim "Figures don't lie, but liars figure". Perhaps a post on truth telling [breaking it down for the idiots to grasp] should be forthcoming. The mainstream media has deliberately set out to whip up the easily led into a frenzy. Started 11 months before a national election. Setting the stage to upset the status quo in order to seize power.
It's been tried successfully before, in Germany, 1932. The powerful and rich were demonized publicly until there was rioting in the streets and Adolf Hitler was elected. He used the manufactured crisis to install a socialist utopia at gunpoint. How Joseph Goebbels would have loved social media.
SCC keep up the good fight!
Looks like there is an unwanted downtick in the democratic agenda's uptick...Looks like they will have to reconfigure what they have been figuring.
Keep up the pressure...
Here is the answer.....
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/
At least we are of the smart people as get the real news here.
The death rate is trending downward. Is of course only half of the story.
I know you get this already SCC, but this is for anyone still scratching their heads...
You can have a 0% death rate, but you can STILL have the hospitals completely ovewhelmed with people sick with Covid-19, which IS still a health emergency. Why? Because all the "normal" day to day needs of the hospital (apart from Coronavirus cases) are going to suffer. Car accident, you fall off a ladder, your kid has an asthma attack - all those "normal" things are going take a back seat now. Expect long lines at the hospital (with lots of sick people) regardless.
As Dr. Brixt, whom I respect greatly, stated in interviews yesterday (I paraphrase): The model was wrong and we are trying to figure out why. So we shut down the nation's economy over a flawed model.
Stay inside for two weeks, off the lakefront for another, then I walk out of the first time to go to the sneeze guarded Jewels for a sack of provisions and find out next week I caught a case of the corona without knowing it and write it off as regular flu because doctor says stay home until (if) a fever breaks out then come on down for a test.
That should take about another week, so what by early-mid April did I gain for self quarantine?
Larri going to gibs me an extra month to pay my taxes even if not allowed by ordinance to use the services they collect for?
Larri’s Corona CompStat.
Nobody is downplaying, they’re overblowing.
Nobody in media willing to find out or says how many of the cumulative infected are recovered by now.
Larri LightLoafer says 40,000 cases are coming...because that’s what NY Coumo said, it’s what JBee and Los Angels Gavin Gruesome says.
The crisis is being exploited and not to be ignored or underplayed.
Democrats are depending on it.
Why do you think China improved its numbers?? Did anyone see the vids of the'" Virus Police" taking people kicking and screaming
away and putting them in vans? Vans destined for the death house and incinerators!! They have killed anyone they think is sick or a
carrier!!
http://pf.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ef2bbd8c0b004455ae58305a143082d2
this is for LE
https://iafc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/3813d2f872224d8a93c52f05cd392b8c
this is for fir4e and EMS
I know 3 people who have contracted this disease and they know 3 people who also have the disease. 4 out 6 people have already been hospitalized out of the pool of people I know which have the disease
3/27/2020 01:12:00 AM
It’s a virus, not a disease.
There are two very different mortality rates at this point in time. World wide the rate is about 4.4% the current US rate is 1.4%. So we are doing a much better job of keeping people alive then the rest of the world. Hope that holds up but no guarantee it will. So Berrnie our medical system is currently outperforming all your socialized systems what have you to say about that? In fact Berrnie are you still alive been strangely quiet lately. Must busy licking your wounds.
Excellent summary! You gotta sister?
Excellent explanation my friends. Yesterday even Dr. Birx stated that the projected models first spoken about a week or so ago are proving to be incorrect. It was presumed a death rate of around 5%, but the average is closing to 1.5%
Rona has hit 016 tact team.cpd response is yellow tape on tack office door , keep operating as normal WTF, dont hold your breath for station to get a total washdown,while city hall and parks are closed
The democaratic party is finished, and so is the deceitful media.
3/27/2020 04:43:00 AM
Oh I wouldn't say that. They have their loyal followers and will continue to lie to manipulate the stupid and the haters. Giving out free stuff always helps too. Most of those people have a huge chip on their shoulders and feel they are entitled to anything they want.
I've watched a number of short videos on the PragerU channel and it does really seem that young people are much dumber than they used to be. And the number of adolescent-adults ever increasing. It seems the majority of young dems are for Sanders, what does that tell you about the future. Easy to manipulate, they follow without ever engaging their brain. The media and Hollywood will continue to fling muck and the the dems will listen and obey their every word. The old system continues to work.
Groot will never really get nasty to black folks, Fox will continue not charging and the system will let criminals out, the dem policies in the big city roll on. How anyone could even hold their nose and vote for Biden, the scatterbrained old pervert, is beyond me. But they will cheer for him and vote for him too. No, the dem voters are far too stupid to change. Most of them. And money will roll in for the dem propaganda as always. And remember diversity is king.
Any Math to calculate a potential "death rate" for Doctors, Nurses, and first responders?
Are Doctors as a whole, an older or younger population?
As you and others have pointed out, the lethality of this virus is nowhere near what’s being reported by the drive-by media hysteria mongers. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people would test positive for this today if we tested everyone (same as with any stinking flu virus). It’s around us all the time and we carry it. If the numerator stays the same and the denominator gets exponentially larger, the lethality drops to fractions of a percent, which is where most flu viruses end-up when all the hysteria wears-off. Don’t bother arguing with Illinois public school educated retards questioning your math and approach. A hillbilly in Uzbekistan could figure it out. Your logic and math are spot-on.
Most of the people getting really sick from this have significant underlying issues and are not “healthy” people to begin with. By far, most of the deaths involve very sick people because of other multiple issues and the virus just pushes them over the edge. You can parade around one-off examples on TV, but you don’t take-down a 20 trillion-dollar economy and destroy the financial lives of tens of millions of families because of one-offs. We may never know the real back-story, but something more is going on here. This is not on the level.
More than 12,000 people died in the US from the swine flu in 2009 when Hussein-Obama was president and it was page-3 news. Most people don’t even know there was a swine flu pandemic in 2009. Use your noodles people. You’re being played.
Ralph Wiggum Said:
Numbers hurt my head.
Many of us in the 004th District wonder if this virus may have already passed through that station. Back in early February half the 3rd watch was sick. Many officers had some of the same symptoms as Covid 19 and had to hit the medical. Me personally I had a lot of the symptoms except a fever. And it seemed like the symptoms lasted 1 or 2 weeks when people got sick. Equally concerning is a P.O. in 004 went to China in either November or December and came back sick as shit. He didn't hit the medical and continued to work in 004. Conveniently a lot of people in 004 got sick afterwards. It's very possible this virus was already here in Chicago.
"Anonymous said...
Michigan has 2856 positives and 60 deaths. That's more than Illinois. Not once did the MI governor or big city mayor blame Trump for anything. Nor did they throw hissy fits or scold their citizens.
All of the other states have leaders who thought on their own and used their states resources to find solutions to this crisis. None rambled with big meaningless words nor gave themselves credit by stealing ideas (like Pritzker and Lightfoot).
STFU chubs and stubs. You are embarrassing fools with huge egos.
3/27/2020 01:41:00 AM"
No, the Democrat Governor of Michigan is ordering, just like the Democrat Nevada Governor, that off label usage of hydroxy-chloroquine cannot be prescribed for patients who have contracted COVID-19. This medication has a long and proven, safe track record in treating malaria for over 60 years. Combined with Z-Pak, the virus is gone from your body in 3 days.
Makes you wonder why certain people in a certain political party (Democrats) don't want people to recover from this flu?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/michigans-democrat-governor-threatens-all-doctors-and-pharmacists-who-prescribe-or-dispense-hydroxychloroquine-for-coronavirus/
"Anonymous said...
What was the death rate of the H1N1 Virus?
"Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll."
That was in 2009, and that Administration did nothing...
3/27/2020 04:09:00 AM"
Sit down and shut up! YOU are not allowed to question the previous Comrade in Chief messiah obama! You're either a racist or an Uncle Tom if you do!
Sarcasm/OFF
I read this blog daily and feel guilty about it. I feel I am spying on people who actually contribute to society’s well being in spite of ineptitude of leadership. Sadly, I spent years at CPS as a mathematics instructor and know what criminal psychotics we dumped on the street with H.S. Diplomas. Fractions? Decimals? Base rate and percentage problems? Sorry, you’re talking Martian.
“Anonymous Anonymous said...
Raw data is all well and good, but statistics is about evaluating coefficients of variables. To predict we need to hypothesize these variables and then to take a meaningful sample. That is a distributed one rpresenting the population to be evaluated. An example is how Italy has be under reporting exposure and skewing data toward the elderly. Policy makers have a different set of rules than medical personnel, as an example. Back to the Italian snafu; the average age of mortality is 80 years for this syndrome. The average age of death period is 82.5. The victims all had serious underlying conditions. To shut down an economy will kill a different set, as can be imagined, as primary care is in suspension and mental health should be expected to have increased coefficient values. We are also have to not the respiratory distress in a population that has 30% nicotine addiction. Unless there is a well fitting model designed by professionals and not political scientists and the like, we end up with GIGO; Garbage In Garbage Out. We are also not being informed about the truly elderly (examples of 98 and 103) that have gotten over it quickly with a minimum of discomfort. Those people, from England and China respectively were non-smoker and survivors of total war. Yet they shrugged off this 'killer' disease? What this would indicate is that this is not a 'novel' virus, but is only now being tested for. If it were a truly novel virus, those folks would not have recovered. Epidemiologists know that testing is the easiest way to create an exposure; what was supposedly non-existent is now multiplied merely by the act of recording an insignificant number. This isn't a new plague, it is just a political tool by governments that desire additional controls. China killed a rebellion in Hong Kong, France is using it to stop weekend rioting, Italy can close borders at EU expense. The list goes on.
It's not the end of the world, though the cure itself could get out of control
3/27/2020 01:40:00 AM”
Bravo .... exactly... approximately 7 million died in The Great Depression.
An economy not in gear equals death.
Even if you get to one person having it if you don’t know or they don’t know they’re carrying it the numbers will most likely explode upwards again. Of course their location would also be a factor. More dense....quicker spread...
Recent retiree said....
A few days ago I started feeling like absolute dog shit, and it was at the same time I learned I had recent exposures to two people who tested positive for the Kung Flu. I am not yet on Medicare and I am on my spouses insurance. I called the local hospital and they put me through a battery of questions and breathing exercises over the phone. Based on the phone call, they classified me as having a “positive screen for coronavirus”. I then went to one of the hospital’s local clinics to be seen.
They found I had a 103 fever, shortness of breath, chills, all kids of shit. I was told I most likely have coronavirus, but they cannot confirm it.
Unfortunately there are no test kits available to use on me. The very small number they have are being rationed out on people that are near death. There is no treatment, only Tylenol.
I've read of RO rates of 6.0. So with that logic for every diagnosed case, multiply by 6, then the new number by 6, and so on. It is very clear that we have a factorial distribution, which renders the mortality rate inconsequential. So... the US citizenry has been played. Those 3 card monte hustlers have nothing on the WHO. I'd lay odds that if the same test was given last year similar numbers would have resulted. A coronavirus is nothing but a strain of the common cold, weaponized by Communists the world over; CCP in China, Democrats in the former USA. Meanwhile the flu kills the same 700,000 that is always does. Fear uber alles
Freakin love this blog!
Keep up the great work!
The only place where you can get really news!
Anonymous said...
Here's a question for our over fed governor. How many victims of COVID19 are waiting for a ventilator because none are available?
Mr. governor how many have died because no ventilator was available? Please answer.
3/27/2020 04:15:00 AM
Rumor of the Day is Jum Bo Pritzker will go on a hunger strike if he doesn't get his way with the sheeple from Illinois..
Very well done post, it’s all intended by the media to take trump down. And fuck face Cuomo is running for President already. The alarmists are making people crazy.
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
Albert Allen Bartlet
Anonymous said...
So many babies are going to be born nine months from the end of this lockdown pandemic stunt ... What else you gonna do with your time? Got to pass it somehow...
3/27/2020 02:54:00 AM
Boy, you're not kidding, my wife keeps telling me "Let's lay down and take a rest".......she's wearing me out!!!
Let’s look at the bigger picture. At this point who cares about numbers. There are two medications out there that have been used together in China and France that have more then a 95% rate at eliminating the virus within four to six days. They just started this week giving it out in New York why isn’t this being given out all over the country it has been proven safe for fifty years no need for testing trials of you can’t handle the side effects listed then you don’t get the medication. Doctors and Dentists are already writing prescriptions for friends and family members. People should be calling congressman and senators to get this out to the public.
Number of cases are up , yes because we the USA 🇺🇸 are testing more people .
Now here’s a real problem in Chicago and othe big cities run by democrats , no action is ever take to stop it , simple action needed , proper charges and strict sentencing, no probation or parole .
March to Date
Shot & Killed: 21
Shot & Wounded: 138
Total Shot: 159
Total Homicides: 23
Let’s ticket those Hispanic soccer players and families jogging , bicycling along Chicago’s beautiful lake front .
Napoleons syndrome is what Groot has , fat boy JB was bullied as a kid , few friends , now he is the bully .
Name calling and finger pointing solve nothing. They just antagonize people. What's the point? Rather than spending time finding fault with "the other guy" lets just try and do some good. That goes for both sides.
Fauci published a paper on this a few days ago in the New England of Medicine.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Note this:
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
Personally I think were fucked no matter what we do.
And I'm a positive guy.
Well, it really only hits people with underlying conditions hard. Like diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure (because of the beta blockers) etc.
Fortunately the CPD is packed to the brim with healthy, in shape people.
I mean, a pear is a shape.
Concerned Citizen here
Wuhan Virus Update
Sterility in males from Covid19.
This article is not confirmation but shows concern/possibility.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077113/wuhan-doctors-plan-long-term-look-coronavirus-impact-male-sex
I am 90% sure I had COVID-19 earlier this month. Sick for 2 days with 102 fever which I have not had for 2-3 decades, no sinus infection, extreme fatigue (more than any other time I have been sick) and it all started with a heavy feeling in my lungs. I went to my doctor who said I had influenza but did no testing to confirm what type. I got over it a few days. This was early this month before mass hysteria set in.
**********************************************
You most likely did catch it. Glad you're feeling better. Can you give us more details please? Like where you most likely got it, how quickly it affected you and what if any medications you recommend?
What was the death rate of the H1N1 Virus?
"Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll."
That was in 2009, and that Administration did nothing...
3/27/2020 04:09:00 AM
Thank you.
I know 3 people who have contracted this disease and they know 3 people who also have the disease. 4 out 6 people have already been hospitalized out of the pool of people I know which have the disease
----------
Which means exactly nothing
a lowering death rate percentage is valuable because it shows the health care system responding. there is more testing and people are on ventilators. if the percentage goes up it means health care is deteriorating under greater stress. goal is to keep your percentage under 1%. it gives us no information on the spread or the eventual inflection point.
0812hrs . Not sure if your figures are correct regarding deaths in 2009 , what I am sure of is media hid it . Media responsible for deaths .
If Hilary Clinton was President now , media would’ve hid it again to protect her and Americans would have died by the thousands .
Media knows neither of the two could have handled this type of crisis , time in front of a microphone without a TelePrompTer .
One time he was talking about asthma inhalers and in said breathalyzers. We also had 57 States when he ran .
"Do people really think the whole hospital systems here in the US and around the world are on some
Big conspiracy to get rid of Trump and bring down the US Economy by keeping patients in hospitals when they don’t need to be? If you do then you’re a nut job. Hospitals for the last decade are in the business of pushing patients out ASAP and don’t keep patients in there cause insurance companies will not approved additional payments for services not needed"
I'm no nut job.
The Dems, Libs, socialist, communists, in the USA and around the world, HATE Trump.
They have been trying to defeat him every day, every way, since his election.
They want him out, BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.
Is it unbelievable that China, who lost a trade war to Trump, would unleash a flu weapon on Trump?
Is it unbelievable that China would want to destroy the US economy?
Several thousand Chinamen killed by the China government is OK to accomplish their plan.
So, do I really think this China flu could be a weapon to destroy Trump and the USA?
Do I have any indication it is not.
No to both!
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Can we just build a wall around these shithole cities like NY LA PHL BMORE DETROIT and every other shithole in this country and just let the virus burn out? It would be a loy cheaper.
3/27/2020 07:13:00 AM
A movie was done about walling up shithole cities. It was called "Escape from New York." A 1981 film.
Yup, a whole different story when you run the numbers.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/what-the-media-isnt-telling-you-about-the-united-states-coronavirus-case-numbers/
On todays press conference JB stated " if a individual exhibits Covid symptoms they are immediately classified as having it, we do nit have enough tests.' I wonder what the real count is?
Lightfoot was asked if she is thinking about repealing the bag tax, due to reusable bags being possibly infected. She answered " I do not see any reason in repealing the bag tax.....plastic bags cause too much of an environmental impact." So I guess all the disposable PPE does not pose a issue?
If only tenants were this smart.
Half of the carriers show no symptoms:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I know 3 people who have contracted this disease and they know 3 people who also have the disease. 4 out 6 people have already been hospitalized out of the pool of people I know which have the disease
Get new friends.
I think there is some kind of SCAM.
The hospitals know that they will get paid from insurers for testing for covid-19. I think the nurses are being pressured to say it’s covid-19 and not just FLU that hits every year.
You wait and see.
Corona isn't Trump's fault.
Ebola wasn't Obama's
Sars wasn't Bush's
and only a handful of cases of herpes was Clinton's
Does anyone know that the issue has never been the death rate but how it will overwhelm our healthcare system?
Why is everyone so stuck on the death rate? Because one doc gave some super high numbers if nothing was done, and now that stuff is being done the rate is lower and we are having our "ah ha!" moment.
I say lift the restrictions and let it run amok.
If LL was future thinking this would reduce the need to fix any of the cities pension issues.
The Bernie bros will see a reduction in global warming issues due to population decrease.
Think of the penguins and the children. Its always about the penguins and children
So, do I really think this China flu could be a weapon to destroy Trump and the USA?
Do I have any indication it is not.
No to both!
3/27/2020 06:53:00 PM
I hear you. Truth can be stranger than fiction and you very well might have written the truth. Time will tell.
To yet another unpublished moron:
You have hundreds of outlets to spew your pap and get the recognition you so desperately crave. You might even have the ability to start your own blog - though based on your tin-foil hat ramblings we wonder. Go there. Do that.
You don't get to come here and spout the BS we see every single day in the main stream and turn our endeavor into another house organ of the left.
Try expanding your horizons and ask why and wonder why no one in your world is even discussing opposing viewpoints. The science is unsettled, but more and more of it is landing on our side, not yours. Maybe you're too young to remember the other dozen times the world was "doomed" and all came to naught.
Get new friends.
3/27/2020 10:40:00 PM
Thanks for the laugh!
I have been saying the same thing for weeks about the death rate of this alleged virus. No one listens, and basically says I'm an A-hole for doubting the fat assed governor and mayor. This is nothing more than the GD flu. Glad to see the other's with a brain feel the same way.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I think there is some kind of SCAM.
The hospitals know that they will get paid from insurers for testing for covid-19. I think the nurses are being pressured to say it’s covid-19 and not just FLU that hits every year.
You wait and see.
Guess you learn something new everyday. I always thought that doctors and tests determine the diagnosis and illness. Next time I go to the doctor I’ll save a few bucks and ask the nurse what’s wrong with me
People(or folks) are really bad at math. Hence they play the lottery and gamble at casinos.
said...
Can we just build a wall around these shithole cities like NY LA PHL BMORE DETROIT and every other shithole in this country and just let the virus burn out? It would be a loy cheaper.
3/27/2020 07:13:00 AM
A movie was done about walling up shithole cities. It was called "Escape from New York." A 1981 film.
3/27/2020 06:56:00 PM
You’d be building a wall around your self if you’re local Chicago is one of those shithole cities so you would in turn burn with it.
Fractions, decimals, exponents, "if/then"
mathematical problems and fully contextualized
statistical analysis makes progressive tummies rumble...
Kind of like how language and syntax no longer
makes sense as they fold, spindle and mutilate
to the point where it is no longer commonsensical.
Not just the life’s lost from covid19. Many Lives will be lost because hospitals will be overrun with patients. It has always been about not overwhelming the health care system. Let the experts do what they do.
27 March - 27 deaths, 3026 cases - .01124
28 March - 47 deaths, 3491 cases - .01346
29 March - 65 deaths, 4596 cases - .01414
...constantly rising for 3 days.
Because people who were diagnosed earlier are dying now.
If infection rate is increasing rapidly 'statistical' case fatality ratio drops, does that mean that intentionally infecting people lowers the severity of the disease?... No. Because "infected now" does not mean "dead already". Some of people infected will die later.
"...Handcuff me this second..."
Not my preferred method, but if you insist cutie.....
Now, kees me you fool!!!!
"...you gotta sister?..."
I can be his sister cutie.
Now, kees me you fool!!!!
Mar, 30 - 5057 cases, 73 deaths 0.0144 = 1.44%
Mar, 31 - 5994 cases, 99 deaths 0.0165 = 1.65%
Apr, 1 - 6980 cases, 141 deaths 0.0202 = 2.02%
... And still rising. Simple match.
Simple biology tells that most likely it will most likely rise even more - 4% if we're lucky.
Post a Comment
<< Home