Dumb Professor
Evidently, the bar to become a University of Chicago Chair has been lowered overly much. Get a load of this "statistician" and his methodology:
The crowd for Friday's Stanley Cup parade and rally was huge by any measure, but at least one statistician says the city's official estimate of two million attendees is a bit overzealous.
"Most censuses of Chicago give you three million people for Chicago," said Stephen Stiegler, the Chairman of the Department of Statistics at the University of Chicago. "Do you really believe that two-thirds of Chicago was down there? No!"
Never mind that Metra was running full cars to and from the end of their numerous rail lines. And for the first time in recent memory, lakefront parking garages were full to overflowing. No, all 2 million people came from the population of Chicago, IL.
We have our own doubts about the 2 million number being thrown around, but we base it on knowledge of faulty crowd estimates, the tendency for politicians and Department brass to lie through their teeth, and the experience we've had working events where a million people actually show up. We don't just assume two-thirds of Chicagoans took off work, skipped school and showed up downtown.
And admit it - neither did any of you, which makes every one of us at least as smart as someone running a department of a university ranked among the tops in Nobel Prize winners.
We have our own doubts about the 2 million number being thrown around, but we base it on knowledge of faulty crowd estimates, the tendency for politicians and Department brass to lie through their teeth, and the experience we've had working events where a million people actually show up. We don't just assume two-thirds of Chicagoans took off work, skipped school and showed up downtown.
And admit it - neither did any of you, which makes every one of us at least as smart as someone running a department of a university ranked among the tops in Nobel Prize winners.
Labels: silly people
posted by SCC at 12:02 AM
27 Comments:
It was all Chicago residents there, 'cuz Richie doesn't like suburbanites in the city since they can't act nice on the lakefront. Another academic without a clue.
I don't think it was 2mill, but it was a shitload of people. METRA stopped accepting passengers at far outlying stations, like Highland Park and Arlington Heights.
CTA was packed.
No places to eat, drink or take a leak. Sure glad there wasn't any type of big trouble.
Anecdotal evidence that teenage
M/1s were out wilding against suburban people, especially families.
the city has always overestimated these numbers.supposedly we were competing with new york for bragging rights type crap.every crowd estimate was at least double.new years,chicago fest,bears superbowl parade,smelt fishing(kidding).....they did this since at least the early seventies,probably longer.the old farts like me will remember this.thanks for letting me post.
The numbers are always inflated just like the Taste of Chicago attendees. That way Shanks Inc can write off and pocket more when the smoke clears. Who do you think is getting rich from the contract to clean up after every event?
I doubt there were 2 million.
Look at this image from Love Parade in Berlin:
http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/images/2173771.jpg
They estimated it at 1.25 million.
Hawks Parade:
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/475172/6a00e5513d181b883401287692b5a7970c-800wi_medium.jpg
Big difference.
75,000 - 125,000 tops. The capacity of a metra train is around 100-150 per car in the seats, the longest is an 11 car train during rush hour. So, even allowing for many standing room passengers a jam packed metra train would carry 1,500-1,800 and that is stuffed on their longest train.
Assume that just 20% of the reported 2 million came by metra, that would be 266 of their longest trains stuffed to standing room capacity. No way. Metra doesn't have 266 locomotives in their whole system.
Sounds like some City of Chicago math to get extra money from the Feds.
Oh give me a break SCC. I was at the Million Man March, and this was way more people than that :)
Not even close to 2 million....maybe 500,000K and thats being generous.
Over the years I have given silly croud estimates to lazy reporters who actually put them in the paper and call me a "City Official". I am talking about crazy numbers that a six year old would know were wrong. Laugh my ass off when I see it. Another reason not to buy the rags.
Following the White Sox Victory in the World Series, the city held a parade. The estimates for the number in attendance ranged from 350,000 to 500,000. The estimate of 2 million people attending the Blackhawks' victory parade is a generous one.
I doubt there were 2 million.
Look at this image from Love Parade in Berlin:
http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/images/2173771.jpg
They estimated it at 1.25 million.
Hawks Parade:
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/475172/6a00e5513d181b883401287692b5a7970c-800wi_medium.jpg
Big difference.
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That second photo isn't the Hawks parade. That's not Wacker, Washington, or Michigan Ave.
There are approximately 7 million people in "metropolitan" Chicago. That would be suburban Cook county, DuPage county, Will county, Kane county etc. I'm sure people came in from northwest Indiana, southern Wisconsin, and from outside the collar counties in Illinois. Hey professor, you didn't need to prove you were a resident of the city to attend the rally.
This guy gave an estimate of between 50,000 and 750,000!?!!?
A 700,000 person diffrence?
WOW, this guy is a GEEEEN-NNUS!
Learn to count, its kinda simple.
Book smart..Street stoopid..
The professor took time of from counting that "actual" people that have made a purchase at McDonald's: he doubts McDonald's have served over 99 Billion
He won't be fooled!!
OK, here's how you count them, if you are a "City Official" of course: Count the number of people who can stand on one sidewalk square, That's one square, multiply that one by two million, that gives you two million people. Then charge the Blackhawks $10 a head for the two million people for crowd control and garbage pickup. That's $20 million bucks. Due within 30 days.
Now pay up Rocky.
That's sort of how mumbles does things.
An aerial shot of the parade route (and you can only count the route, from beginning to end) and the crowd at he rally site would allow for a detailed analysis of the numbers involved.
That would be based on how much room one individual occupies when standing shoulder to shoulder with other people, compared against the available space used to accomodate them.
It's scientific, not voodoo. Based on the photos I saw, a guesstimate would be in the neighborhood of between 1 million and 1.25 million, and that's on the high end.
The 2 million thrown out there was inflated.
Where do you think Bugs Bunny's comment "WHAT A MAROON" came from?
Next time look to see if the professor has slip-ons on.
Some haven't graduated to laces.
What's the old saying?
There are three types of lies:
1. White lies.
2. Bald faced lies.
3. Statistics.
You know what they say about Kollege Teachers?
Those who can, DO.
Those who can't, TEACH.
That's the REAL danger in placing too much confidence in the "book smart" crowd.
I've seen it over and over in the private sector, and you guys experience it every day with the Department Of Police.
I ALWAYS take the advice of anyone with 10 years or more legitimate experience before I'll even CONSIDER some goofy wonk.
There IS a time and place for "theory', but this isn't a Disney movie.
In my work, I often see people that...
Know 20 different ways to make love, but don't know any women.
Over and over, EPIC FAIL. All aboard the FAILBOAT.
Look at your own failure, Superintendent.
This fish DOES stink from the head down.
Does this dope think all those people reside inside the city limits?
The crowd estimates are obviously inflated. I think the professor got trapped in a situation where he was trying to give a simple example to justify his reasoning and between him and the reporter it got overly simplified. If he didn't say it, he certainly meant something along the lines of "Do you really think the equivalent of two thirds of the entire population of the city was crammed downtown for that event?"
Full disclosure: I took a class once from professor Stigler and he was a good guy and a great professor. Normally I'm not surprised when academics say foolish things but in this case I'm going with my other instinct: the "journalist" screwed the pooch.
Newsflash...crowd estimates from the city are completely BS. Numbers are typically decided in advance, particularly Taste of Chicago's estimates. Every year is a "record-breaking number" when tickets sales are weaker than the year before. This number of 2 million is just a joke.
I'd love to have someone in Special Events explain it away, odds are they'd blame the CPD for making it in the first place.
Simple analogy:
Crowd estimates were determined the same way the CPD estimates narcotics values...
Example - at the end of any give year, the CPD can "proudly" say: "For all of 2009, officers recovered XXX million dollars worth of illegal narcotics from the streets of Chicago" when we all know the real numbers have been inflated for obvious reasons; i.e. additional funding to hide bosses' kids on "elite" narcotics/HIDTA teams, etc., etc.
Smoke and mirrors regardless of whether it's dope or crowd estimates.
I worked it. How many people show up in a day for the Taste? What ever the number, it was double.
I doubt there were 2 million.
Look at this image from Love Parade in Berlin:
http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/images/2173771.jpg
They estimated it at 1.25 million.
Hawks Parade:
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/475172/6a00e5513d181b883401287692b5a7970c-800wi_medium.jpg
Big difference.
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Is the alleged "Hawks Parade" even Chicago? This is an idiotic post.
I had the bad luck to be driving by the Joliet train station just as the tidal wave of humanity got off the Rock Island at 4:00 PM. Seeing that I believe every last one of the 3 million estimate. Funny thing about the people. They were families, lots Deds and couples, hte majority with multiple kids with them. No one drunk and obnoxious, everyone's pants were securely fastened at their waists (and not hanging off their a--). How did that happen? Oh, yeah, they're hockey fans, not basketball fans.
The most important thing about the BlackHawks celebration is crowd is not was whether it was 1 or 2 million. The important thing is that a shitload of people came together to celebrate and have a good time and they were able to do it without any violence.
Any one want to offer suggestions as to why the crowd was so well behaved??????
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