Another Masters in the Making
Did the Predictive Analysis Unit see this thread coming?
We love the part where the article pretty much implies the entire job and the unit is based on voodoo:
We love the part where the article pretty much implies the entire job and the unit is based on voodoo:
It’s not quite “Minority Report,” but it’s still high-tech. Mr. Goldstein’s team may conclude, for example, that increases in burglaries in a certain neighborhood usually precede a rash of shootings. The team relays its findings so that patrols can be adjusted and the pattern broken.
Mr. Goldstein cautions that the system’s accuracy isn’t yet statistically proven, but says, “We’ve seen this system be dead on.” It’s enough to convince him he made the right career choice.
We're pretty sure the first paycheck of a $120,000-plus salary after four years, the free car and not a single concrete result that can be highlighted would convince us, too. We mean, look at this "memo" we had e-mailed to us:
Have you ever read such magnificent bullshit in your entire life? "Clusters," "indicators," "algorithms." Algorithms? How did crime ever get solved without "algorithms" we ask you?
Wow!
In the private sector, the guys and gals writing this crap are usually the first "middle management" casualties of cost cutting moves. We can only hope the same happens here one day.
UPDATE: Office Space reference:
Have you ever read such magnificent bullshit in your entire life? "Clusters," "indicators," "algorithms." Algorithms? How did crime ever get solved without "algorithms" we ask you?
Wow!
In the private sector, the guys and gals writing this crap are usually the first "middle management" casualties of cost cutting moves. We can only hope the same happens here one day.
UPDATE: Office Space reference:
Labels: department issues
posted by SCC at 12:05 AM
200 Comments:
off topic but the sos federal lawsuit involving the bar incident on 63rd has been dismissed and thrown out of court..just an fyi if anyone was wondering
This is funny shit. Where the fuck do we find these people? PERGUN? Does the model take into account how many times mookie and pookie call and say there is a gun just to get the police to the scene faster to a domestic or a nonsense disturbance? yeah. PERGUN in your asses and PULLTRGR assholes.
But what about the TPS reports. I think someone is going to have a meeting with the 2 Bobs. And has anyone seen my stapler.
Um, SCC, you obviously screwed up big-time in posting this memo. It's in a language of uncertain origin.
Could you reprint it IN ENGLISH for those of us who don't speak nonsense, or its derivative, gibberish?
Really, what the hell is it trying to say? "We noticed some crime occurred in this area?" Yippee.
Is PO Utz related to former Commander Utz of 017?
The same Commander Utz who spied on his officers from his wife's Toyota?
Looks like Daddy took care of his afraid to work the street son.
How about the two names on this memo go grab a beat car/rapid and work 011. Instead of writing up where crime might be, how about a traffic stop and find proceeds from a robbery or burglary with some good old police work. And not sitting in an office with 5 years on the job.
Is this for real. I don't mean to single the P.O. out that wrote this, but this guy has less than 3 years on the job. Seriously. I know him. He's barely worked the streets at all. He is however a really nice guy.
How about they have tact/gang/beat guys that work the district and have experience in the area give predictions. Every time a huge fight breaks out all of us that work the street pretty much know something is brewing and is going to go off soon.
Having a guy with really no street experience dictating where all these resources go is absolutely ridiculous.
Can anyone decipher this?
Sneed's Column:
The Peterson file ...
Jail baiting: Lashing out at Oak Brook Police Chief Thomas Sheahan for "waging a personal vendetta" against his cop son Stephen, Drew Peterson -- who is awaiting trial for the murder of his third wife, Kathleen Savio -- dispatched an angry note also accusing Will County State's Attorney James Glasgow of having four obsessions:
1. "Drew Peterson"
2. "Prosecuting a cop."
3. "Playing God."
4. "Working that hairdo of his."
EB wrote many nasty memos about po's and sgt's writing memos directly to exempts. He didn't even want your commander or lt approval line. EB wants you to write the memo to your cmdr and the cmdr write another memo on top to the directed exempt. EB said we have no right talking directly to an exempt. Ridiculous waste of paper and ridiculous power hold of the arrogant idiot EB. But thats how he thinks.
You can get better, more accurate info by giving ten bucks to a decent snitch.
.
My analysis of that memo detected clusters of fecal matter, and algorithms eluding to justifications for existing in an unnecessary unit within a useless administration.
Submitted for you consideration.
Officer Holden McGroin
It is hard to decide where to start ripping this. Applying the order and structure of mathematics to predict impulse behavior is ludicrous.
This may impress the big business exec in the corporate world. But then again it may not: They are probably too ashamed to admit that they don't know what this guy is talking about. (Most people out side of a university math department don't) So they say" Wow, that is brilliant!" But the emperor is naked.
As for the $120 salary for Goldstein: chump change. How much staff does he have?? And don't forget: when it comes to number spinning, we also have the Fusion Center and the D.O.C. All with staffs and computers and budgets and reports and piles of nonsense.
And then there is probably some work along these lines being done by Detective Division Administration, Patrol Administration, and maybe even R&D.
And as for adjusting patrols to respond to what may happen: First of all you have to have bodies to send. We don't. So it is pointless.
they forgot to discuss "paradigms", "bandwidth", "core competencies", "imagineering" and other bullshit words that are used in IT companies
How much can IAD bury, when will the G move???
It's amazing. They managed to find a bad neighborhood where lots of crimes occur.
I mean, I've known people to do that simply by getting off the bus in the wrong place...
Can the HDO protect even coppers from Federal scrutiny???
O_o
WTF did you just say? O_o o_O
Our 50+ year old eyes began hurting something fierce just trying to read and comprehend the bulletin!
Another symptom of the smartest people ever in the history of CPD just flat out not having an answer for any damn thing.
The occupants of the ape house at Lincoln Park Zoo if given enough time will eventually fling enough shit at each other and come up with more workable solutions to address the chronic crime problems that are the cause of this city burning to the ground.
There'll be no one left to bury the dead crying out for burial but the dead themselves...
What a fucking mockery these fools have caused this Department to become.
These morons actually think there is no need to have Police, it seems.
Very impressive! I am visibly aroused!
So Director Goldberg is going to get credit if:
1) there IS violent crime in his "cluster" zone. Which would mean he predicted it correctly.
AND/OR
2) there is NO violent crimes in his "cluster" zones b/c he deployed more resources to said "cluster" zone in order to combat the inevitable violent crimes from occurring.
Holy city getting hustled batman!
You know you can predict crime by meditating on the earth's vibrational frequencies. I learned how to do that from a Gypsy psychic. For just $1.00 a minute I could interpret these frequencies for J-Fled. For a few thousand dollars I could take the crime curse off this city too. The cities money is cursed and that is why these honor students are being shot.
im curious to see a narrative on a "heard shot felt pain" shooting using all those "fluff" words he just used......SCC make this a contest!!!!!!
Anytime the street lights were out on a particular block you could bet money that crimes were gonna happen --- anything from thefts from vehicles, robberies all the way up to persons shot... Perhaps I should have "created" the unit 25 years ago..
Please tell me this is a joke, right? Holy shit, I can't believe a police officer would put their name on this B.S.
As an old timer said to me, the computers may tell you where crime will occur, but who is going to put the handcuffs on the criminals intent on harming the citizens? Let Brett take his take home car and patrol 011 on his way home.
Also, the real police don't need computers to tell them what's going to happen and where. good old fashioned talking to the citizens, developing informants, good "hunches", paying attention to the radio, eyes open, ears open, will yield much better police work than this crap.
One police officer with knowledge of his patrol area and dedicated to police work can do more work than 20 who work by the maxim "a bag of weed a day keeps the beat car away."
Chief Juan Rivera won't tolerate BS!!!
Juan is so STERN!
It's unfortunate for P.O. Utz...I know him and he's a very nice guy but he doesn't have that much time on the job. I'm sure his name will surely be smeared over this :-(
But that's the choice he made, to abandon the meat & potatoes of this job, the place where all of your learning and skills are acquired, in order to do math. Hopefully he will come to his senses, give up that position, and return to patrol where he belongs.
What kind of asshole signature is that?
I am a predictive handwriting expert and based on my Carnegie Mellon handwriting cluster algorithym I am predicting Goldstein is a complete weiner.
just what we need, another egghead masquerading as the PO-PO
they are good with numbers lets see if they are good with honesty and if they can admit it when they turn out to be a total flop
so this stroke left opentable in 2006 and left the beat in february 2008. he got on the job in june or july of 2006. i'm no math expert but it seems he completed his 18 month probation and then went straight to fort fellatio. anyone from 011 know if this handjob actually spent time on the street or was he kept behind the desk?
PO Jon Utz wrote this crap? Would that be the spawn of a past Commander of 017 named Charlie (Hmmm, Why does 017 get all the asshat bosses)?
No clout or nepotism there, right? I'm sure he's done his 10 years on the street in a ghetto district before jetting on inside to make these informed crime predictions.
Doesn't it just make you all feel safer?
My anal-alisis is that someone is full of shitzoo and dumb-fed is buying this nonsense as fact. It reads like a bit from the 3 Stooges
Didn't our department ever hear of Comstat? The NYPD used it to reduce homicides from 2,000+ to 600 over the course of 8 years. That's right the city of New York with 8 million people have less homicides than Chiraq with 2.7 million.
Carnagie Mellon Algoritm? So this person with a gun is going to proceed his act of violence on a train...in 11?
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
If I didn't know better, I'd of thought somebody made that up...oh wait, somebody DID make that up!
Hmmmm. I'll bet a beat cop could've predicted that without a single equation!
What a F*CKNG JOKE!
AH, but SCC, this quackery doesn't SOLVE crime, it predicts it!
HOLY CRAP! These guys are todays version of the "real police".
The officer who signed that report, Joe Utz, would he be any relation to Charley Utz, former commander?
Isn't it such a wonderful coincidence how sons & daughters of former bosses always wind up in good spots on this job?
Maybe the Predictive Analysis Unit can run the probabilities of so many bosses kids, wives etc. being in good jobs at 35th st and getting promoted etc.
Then they can send out a sheet detailing each officer's chances of promotion, transfer to a good unit etc. on this job. That would be to better inform the officer to either study harder or to get more side jobs and accept their no-clout no-promotion status with grace and dignity.
Where is this guy's degree from? "Tried and trued"... trued is not a word you moron. $120,000 a year?
Somebody please out this guy's clout.
We can only hope the next Supt. does the right thing with this BS group and swings the axe far and wide within their assigned cubicles, leaving only the equipment intact.
Unbelievable, in this time of limited funding and shortfalls, that this mess has been thrust upon us.
J-Fled and 3M should feel so proud.
Typical over educated moron. Take a nugget of dogshit paint it gold and sell it like candy with big wowwing words. Go work the street you idiot.
As someone who's in Patrol,on mids,w/20+yrs. I read the memo and viewed the short video. I was prepared to write some clever response. I can only say how sad it is that this is what we've become. Total..., total B.S.
Man with a gun calls usually precede gun crimes? Wow. What brilliance.
Submitted for your approval...A person with a gun in search of a beat of occurrence..., A prediction in search of an algorithm....you've left the normal behind and entered... the Goldstein Zone!
I predict that Bret will have gold clusters on his collars before J Fled flees into the night.
who would fall for this bullshit?
To all you asshats bashing kid Utz for the way dad Utz was obviously don't know and have never met Jon. No he doesn't have that much time on but the time he did have on he was never afraid to get out of the car and put his hands on people. For all you hard chargers who say he worked the desk inside somewhere and never really worked the street, I guess catching burglars, on-viewing robbery offenders, chasing the guy holding the gun, chasing and locking up the armed car jackers down the dark alley, isn't really working the street. And to the dumb ass who asked if anybody in 011 knew if this guy spent time on the street or just sat behind a desk? How the fuck would anybody in 011 know that since he never worked in 011, so who's the handjob on that one?
so this stroke left opentable in 2006 and left the beat in february 2008. he got on the job in june or july of 2006. i'm no math expert but it seems he completed his 18 month probation and then went straight to fort fellatio. anyone from 011 know if this handjob actually spent time on the street or was he kept behind the desk?
*********
I worked 011 when he was a PPO and yes he was mostly behind the desk.
PC load letter? What the fuck does that mean?
Thanks SCC. That Video made my morning. Nothing like drinking my coffee, shaking my head wondering where this fucking department went soft. What a tool. Go back to open fucking tables you dip shit.
Where are we going to lunch tonight?
1) Goldstein's clout are Mom and Dad, who are big contributors to Daley. 2) He's Lewin's protege. Make of that what you will. 3) Their analyses fail to take into account other potential factors that appear with the PERGUN calls.
This is all BS in order to try to get federal $$$. Shame on the police officers who allow their names to be associated with this implementation of what is really nothing more than the crime analysis the Detective division has been doing for years.
Right if you're right and right if you're wrong. This clown needs to be pushed back out on the street. This is not what the department should be wasting money on during these times.
It's a shame that they have such contempt for the real work that cops do. Any cop worth his or her salt would know where things are going to happen by working the street and talking to people.
This is obviously lost on this dweeb who thinks that he can get the same results by crunching bullshit numbers. Sad. So sad.
Wizzo can do the same thing!! Doo de doo de doo de doo...
This scenario sounds almost exactly like the program that was/is on channel 2 called "Numbers". Are the powers that be so desperate that they have to steal from a television show? Make believe has come to the CPD.
SUNK.......
Will someone go get me some more popcorn? THANKS........
Carnegie Mellon had really bad cluster algorithms, but he used Preparation H.
LAWSUIT!!!
They have clearly plagorized an entire episode of NUMB3RS!!! The ran these same algorithms when the FBI was looking for the closest Starbucks.
There was a cluster of them in certain neighborhoods.
Can they Prodict how many times I scratch my balls in my beat car a tour? Go sell crazy somewheres else...we are all stocked up here.
Wow!!! Brett Goldstein, class of 06-7. Though I recall he was top academic how the hell did he pull off this coup?
There's (been) a few Utz's on the job,(past/present)
Out of fairness, don't confuse the strokes with the good folks.
P.S. But there' only one Weis, so have at it!
Google "Carnegie Mellon Crimescan Algorithm". Nothing comes up but on page two where it references something about becoming a 'she-male slave' Sounds made up to me.
Don't the people in PAU have star numbers? Or are they getting paid in some inflated (overpaid) civilian title?
It all made perfect sense to me
12 ounce bullet number 6 is just kicking in and my algorithms are telling me to start sipping and stop chugging--- it really sucks to have big problems in life---- time for a couple of fingers of jameson neat---- god bless to all and stay safe out there my fellow brothers and sisters.....
guess there's plain old, ordinary, every day bullshit, like what comes out from 35th St. most days, and "magnificent bullshit", i.e., "predict this!"....looks like SCC hit another one out of the park...
Good video God Bless Police everywhere turn up volume!
http://blutube.policeone.com/Media/6335-BAD-COMPANY/
BAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA WOW! there is breaking news! There is a high incidence of violence attached to person with a gun calls. NO FUCKING SHIT HARVARD BOY! I would have thought the barking dog call would have had the higher incidence of violence but of course I didnt go over that Carnegie Mellon fucking algorithm. HOLY MUTHA FUCKA BATMAN!! How in the flying fuck did non street smart FUCKS take over this dept?
"It reads like a bit from the 3 Stooges
11/04/2010 05:05:00 AM"
more like Abbott & Costello.
Brett is a good guy-Luv Jim Bailey
A few retired coppers over coffee could do the same thing, for lots less money..
but then again, they have experience AND brains
Yes, you laugh at this. Sometimes, I think that many cops think the only thing in policing that works is walking the beat and using the call box. This technique has been used with some success in many other cities and adopted and endorsed by respected police chiefs across the country ( to include Bratton and Ramsey). Give it a chance. The usual method of CPD is to institute some policy based on only gut feelings, no research and no follow-up evaluation to see if the new policy or strategy works. This is something different. I detect some jealousy here. And ignorace. And, yes I knew the retired Cmdr. Utz. He was not an effective leader.. Currently lives in Vegas.
Dear SCC,
I hear that You, the Joker and Penquin better watch your backs! The CPD Predictive Unit computer works better than the Batcomputer. They will predict what computer you will use next and foil your website for good. Bat Fed and Bobin... Pow Bam Wham!
Wow he picks a section of the 11th district and says there may be crime there tonight. Take him to the track and let him pick my ponies! What a genius. How come he has not risen to the top sooner?
Predictive Analysis = Profiling = Bullshit.
009 midnights
Watched the video dam what a bunch of bullshit! This kid has no clue,how much did mom and dad give to the daley crime family?
Millions spent on computers and manpower to emulate a Pin Map.
Believe me , it was much better to have the old red nosed WC walk into roll call holding a pin map. Then giving his speech about whatever the pins represented.
old retired guy
On top of this bullshit is the commander of the truely retarded unit TRU sending out teams to verify whether the crystal ball units bs is correct. Then sgts have to leave reports to the lt and the lt leaves a report to him so he can leave a report to masters masters masters
l in an effort to save his gold star Ryan has planted his head so far up masters (x3) ass that he can taste his breakfast.
Sorry Ryan. In the words of my favorite sports announcer. "HE GONE!!!!!"
-253 disband us already. Please!
Hey. Alogorythm boy.... Put on a gun, head out to a shitty part of a shitty district, lock some bangers up...and....you have PREVENTED crime. You can PREDICT all you want, but THE REAL POLICE PREVENT BY BEING PROACTIVE. At least we used to. Now that JFAILURE is here, we simply ride on jobs and wait for is imminent departure....
06:57:00 AM
"...a person with a gun in search of a beat of occurrence..."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
them shits is funny!
Regardless, of who or what your related to, the fact remains he's a degree holder in statistical sciences. There are not many who can claim or otherwise pursue a degree in that field. You either have the brain or you don't to understand the science. As far as him on the streets, he's one of the few guys who even attempt to chase someone down and do the arrest. Not this coding out bull shit a lot of people do.
I would say to quit crying and STFU but unfortunately it wouldn't be CPD if u did. Who gives a crap about Wiesel and Masters x 3 or whoever else. We always screw ourselves over lazy ass decisions and blame it on the dog-asses or nepotism when it seems fit.
" Where we should go to prevent violence". You mean like where you predicted violence would ocurr in 013? A vacant lot where there hasn't been a crime in the last five years? That one? Nice work Brett.
What a joke.
Goldstein's only claim to fame is an off duty arrest. He didn't work the trenches of 011. He is where he is because of his family, their monetary donations to the city and the mayor's office. Can't believe the media hasn't grabbed this one. Our city is broke, the budget is now going to lay off hardworking civilians in the department and this goof gets 120,000 or more a year, a take Home car and can't tell you one thing about working the streets. Another clout baby in the machine. The Chicago way............
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Didn't our department ever hear of Comstat? The NYPD used it to reduce homicides from 2,000+ to 600 over the course of 8 years. That's right the city of New York with 8 million people have less homicides than Chiraq with 2.7 million.
11/04/2010 05:22:00 AM
They were good in fudging the numbers
What a magnificent pile of bullshit.
A well designed system that has bad performance is of no use to any man, woman or animal. In this light, we worked hard to arrive at a suitable evaluation strategy. Our overall performance analysis seeks to prove three hypotheses: (1) that we can do a whole lot to toggle a heuristic's median block size; (2) that architecture no longer toggles system design; and finally (3) that a method's API is less important than ROM space when optimizing power. The reason for this is that studies have shown that expected clock speed is roughly 39% higher than we might expect [5]. We hope that this section proves the simplicity of complexity theory.
How about the two names on this memo go grab a beat car/rapid and work 011. Instead of writing up where crime might be, how about a traffic stop and find proceeds from a robbery or burglary with some good old police work. And not sitting in an office with 5 years on the job.
11/04/2010 12:19:00 AM
What grudge do you hold against the good POs of 011, wishing something like this upon them?
A Sgt told me that "Ooohh, we need Shitstein, he'd be making $300K in the private sector if he wasnt here!"
Well, let Shitstein go to the private sector and make that much!
Wow..I'm impressed. Nora Daley is also on the Crain's list of most influencial people under 40. I almost choked when I saw that she was listed under the philanthropic heading. It's easy to give away other peoples money! How much does she earn in a year?
As far as this goof..this morning I saw a cluster of peanuts and corn in my morning dump..I guess that means I have to modify my diet! Does this qualify me to head the American Medical Association? Just asking.
It's all smoke & mirrors, with a pinch of clout thrown in the pot! The CHICAGO WAY!!!!
Officer Utz, what do you do around here.....
I take the orders from the fax machine and walk them to Command..... I'm good with people damn it!
Get the fuck outta here. Where the fuck am I? What a douche.....
There seems to be some confusion here about what predictive analysis can and can't do. The memo is obviously full of statical/analytical jargon, but that doesn't mean it's bullshit.
Predictive analysis does NOT deal with predicting crimes, it deals with predicting probabilities. It does this by using data - cold, hard numbers - not bullshit, to find patterns and relationships between things that would otherwise be difficult to spot, even by an experienced officer (with the time on his/her hands to be looking for it).
The one comment so far on this that holds any water talks about how it's very difficult to anticipate the likelihood of an "impulse behavior," but that argument ignores the fact that there are other factors in play which might first push people to actually consider committing a crime. Whether they follow through or not, again, is a probability and that's what this analysis is aimed at determining. "Impulse behavior" is predicted very accurately every day in the world of marketing.
I'm kind of surprised at the backlash to what is essentially using all the information at their disposal to give officers an advantage. That you don't see amazing results so far is probably a combination of your misunderstanding what this thing is doing and the fact that this stuff - as with most analyses - do take a while to sort all the data out.
This department has been doomed for several years. Why does this surprise you?
Anonymous Anonymous said...
they forgot to discuss "paradigms", "bandwidth", "core competencies", "imagineering" and other bullshit words that are used in IT companies
11/04/2010 12:36:00 AM
***********************************
"Stakeholders" . Please don't forget stakeholders. "Interactive behavior" is also a biggie.
Is there any truth that BG's crystal ball unit was supposed to be funded with federal grant money that Mr. Merlin wrote the request for? Then AFTER he sets up his lil magical playground, the grant was denied! Now we're on the hook for this nit-wits playground!
Media, you reading this????
Anonymous Anonymous said...
You know you can predict crime by meditating on the earth's vibrational frequencies. I learned how to do that from a Gypsy psychic. For just $1.00 a minute I could interpret these frequencies for J-Fled. For a few thousand dollars I could take the crime curse off this city too. The cities money is cursed and that is why these honor students are being shot.
11/04/2010 01:28:00 AM
**********************************
Oh Pshaw, you can do it cheaper with an Arcosanti Triangle.
Lay on your back, place said triangle over your zipper. Open same. When the magnetism of the triangle draws the pointer skyward, look for the direction of the shadow. Simple. N,S,E,W. That is the direction in which crime will occur.
Apply, Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
$120,000 please.
I don't know much about statistics, but wouldn't an OLS regression chart be based on fixed observations known to be true? PERGUN calls are not always true, using unverifiable information as a data point on which your equation is based will not produce any usable result.
Maybe some predictive analysis copper can fill us in?
I just had a couple of sliders. I have to go univarigate my algorithm.
You can not apply rational models to irrational individualsa, hence making this theory BS
Not a cop, but much to my astonishment this memo actually addresses statistical techniques that are firmly in my lane. My opinion is that this is stupid people using statistical analysis in ways that they obviously don't understand. They're not necessarily wrong in their conclusions, but their writeup of how they got there is meaningless, uneducated jibberish.
They're using words they probably saw in their software like Ordinary Least Squares without really knowing what the hell OLS is useful for and what it actually tells you - and what it DOESN'T tell you. The only meaningful thing in this memo is "univariate analysis". In English, what they're saying is "When you get a spike in Person With A Gun calls, you also get a spike in violence, but we only compared those two things against each other and didn't consider any other factors." As a commenter above noted, "Does the model take into account how many times mookie and pookie call and say there is a gun just to get the police to the scene faster to a domestic or a nonsense disturbance?" Nope. That would require Actual Math. These guys are just dumping numbers into software and writing memos about what the software tells them.
PERGUN is correlated with violence. No shit, really? You needed to use a computer for that? You needed a computer to map a spike in PERGUN calls and print that map out to justify your existence.
Perhaps a better alternative is ACTUALLY LISTENING TO THE OFFICERS ON THE BEAT. I know, it sounds crazy, but it's free AND it works in realtime. Unfortunately is requires respecting the opinions and instincts of lowly officers, so that's probably a showstopper.
Stop using big words, you're embarrassing yourself.
35th Street sure has alot of Crime Analysis Predicting Units. Goldstein's new Unit, DOC, CPIC, Intellignece Unit (Homan Square). Guess we just found the man power shortage Ciy Hall is looking for.
Sir! You need to back away from that stapler NOW!
Good Luck with this arrogant fucker, kids.
Take it to the bank, the following statement fits him to a "T".
"Knows 20 different ways to make love, but doesn't know any women."
But watching endless p0rn will show him everything he needs to know. Just like the "theory" that almost crashed the U.S. economy.
FUCK your theory, boy.
So the full moon is out and this shits in.
From a recent retired guy. THIS WHOLE JOB IS ONE BIG BAG OF SHIT. 3 and 6 year wonders running the dept. The policy group and this jag preventive group could not coordinate a bowel movement let alone find a bad guy. If he's so brilliant whats he doing on this job when he could be making double? Please whoever is the next mayor and supt please straighten the P.D. out. Quit listing to the revs and alderfucks
Submitted for your approval...A person with a gun in search of a beat of occurrence..., A prediction in search of an algorithm....you've left the normal behind and entered... the Goldstein Zone!
Funniest comment on the blog maybe ever.
Oh-Em-Gee!
Pookie + Pistol + 40oz = Good times.
How's that algorithm ?
Or is that Guzzintas? 40oz guzzinta Pookie with a pistol and lead guzzunta what pookie aimin' at.
I just got that bs in my email. DELETED
I listened to his ( Goldstein's) BS at a recent staff meeting.
DISREGARDED
Why didn't he predict the 4 shootings in 007, or the seven people shot in 003 recently?
DISCREDITED
His unit and salary
DISGUSTING
OT: last night 18th district commander told all the females on the watch to drop a "to-from" for their reasons as to why they weren't available for a search.
Totally awesome! It's about time.
It doesn't even tell you whether or not they're going to be innies or outies? What the hell is it good for?
Firing range near planned nature center OK'd
November 4, 2010 2:19 PM | No Comments
The Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Board today voted 7-to-2 to negotiate a lease agreement that would allow Chicago to building a controversial 33-acre outdoor police gun range on a landfill nearly a mile from a planned nature center.
The district owns the land on the Southeast Side where the city want to construct the range at a cost of $2.5 million. Seized drug cash would be used to pay for the facility, which would be run by Chicago police and open to officers across Cook County.
The plan has run afoul of conservationists who complain that the sound of gunshots could disrupt a planned nature education center that will cater to families and young children. They also said the city hadn't done enough study to determine whether the range's presence would impact birds that live in wetland areas along the Calumet River.
Those opposing the range also said they weren't included in its planning and only learned of it in June.
"I'm very disappointed in the vote because I think that due diligence didn't happen and they're putting this through and once they get the negotiations with the lease, I don't believe that (the city) is going to involve the people who care about the (nature) center," Carolyn Marsh of the Chicago Audubon Society said after the vote. "They're not going to involve us in the process now if they didn't before."
Chicago police and law enforcement groups that support the outdoor range would provide officers with vital tactical firearms training. Police officials also said residents and business owners supported the range because of the added police presence.
"We're pleased it's moving forward and we think it was the right thing to do," said Chicago police Lt. Ray Hamilton, who is overseeing the project. Large earthen walls would be erected around the range, creating a bowl that would dampen about 90 percent of the gun noise, Hamilton said.
Several of the commissioners who voted in favor of the range called their vote just the beginning of the process. The issue will go before various City Council committees before a final vote by the City Council, they said.
The range is scheduled to open next summer.
--William Lee
WTF happened to this dept???
Masters Masters Masters!
If this clown thinks that anyone with an IQ over 50 is going to believe his shit, he is nuts. I wonder how much smoke he had to blow up J-Fled's ass to convince him of this garbage. Only shows you how stupid J-Fled really is.
Bottom line reason this is happening?
They got a $3 Million fed grant to play with this. So you pay about $500,000 a year for salaries for three years (a Director and an couple of minions) and blow the other $1.5 million on some computers (bought through the clouted vendors,.,.wink..wink) and you expanded commerce for the clouted ones w/o stopping any crime.
Utz, who has less than 2.5 years ib the job, did his three cycles in 010 all on 2nd watch until his phone call came through and he was shipped to 009. Never was the police In 010 and from what I heard never was in 009. Un-fucking-believable that he is making decisions now
Can I get an event number for perusing this horse shit?
Masters Masters Masters
this unit has to be the largest waste of time, space, money, and manpower. i thought caps sucked. this has it beat.
025 days
Not 10 years on between the 2 of them and patrolmen and they are telling everyone about the street. The CPD is really screwed up. Don't any of the bosses see this scam especially since they have have never predicted anything
Is John Utz the brother of Charlie Utz (Jr.)? Also on fifth floor of HQ - runs the Honor Guard.
As a mere mortal copper I make the following predictive analysis:
Based on the violence paradigm indicating a shift in potential gang issues and/or crimes occurring as a result of exponential conflict expansion, wealth-seeking via undocumented methods and organized criminal group territorial reorganization it appears likely, though not certain, that 007th district personnel should be prepared for an escalation in crimes against persons and in fact citywide personnel may in fact consider deployment to 007 to be more likely responsive to unoccurred violence than deployment to 016.
However, due to the response to unocurred violence, and based upon a oonsidered mathematical analysis using a proprietary derivative formulaic methodology based in the St. Xavier and Lewis University analytic based chaos theory, it is actually more certain than not that while unoccurred violence may or may not manifest in said 007th district during DOC deployment, such unoccurred violence, while less likely, still may occur in the 016 prior to its unoccurrence in other districts or areas.
The memo memo signed by Utz just proves the old adage true:
When you can't dazzle them with brillance, baffle them with bullshit!
THE DOC HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR 10 YEARS. What does the DOC do now???
fucking idiots!!!!!!!! more college educated retards trying to clean up he city. doesnt work nerds, leave it to the real police with the old school ways...when your ready to take the leashes off that is. fucking tools!!
That is, without question, the funniest memo I've ever read in my twenty-two year career. I simply can't stop laughing. What makes me laugh even harder, if that's at all possible, is that these braintrusts think they got it all figured out. Wow, just plain fucking wow.
These things are so stupid! They have been the same in 010 since they came out. In one one the zones (zone one 1 I believe) there is absolutley nothing there Sunday through thursday. Fridays and saturdays are a different story, no cop in my district needs Goldy to tell them that some dumbfuck disciple is likely to get shot on 1033's beat on the weekend!!
Give me back my red swingline stapler (they jam less!) or I'm gonna burn the building down...
anyone from 011 know if this handjob actually spent time on the street or was he kept behind the desk?
11/04/2010 03:15:00 AM
Brett worked street for a short period of time. He seemed to me to be a good person.
"it has been identified....that Person With a Gun service calls have a strong relationship with future violence."
Really? No shit?
Fucking rediculous. This 4-yr jag makes $120k and runs a 'unit' with how many people, operating how many computers running some fancy program we spent how much money to license? To tell us that where people are reported to have guns their is a strong chance for violence?
When the fuck is this nonsense over???
Anonymous said...
You can get better, more accurate info by giving ten bucks to a decent snitch.
11/04/2010 12:24:00 AM
Or just throw the scrabble letters on the floor and see what they spell and go look for that guy.
They sent my district a notice of "an area with a high concentration of domestics". As they never worked in 006, I guess they don't know that their chosen area hass a huge amount of apt. buildings. So no shit there will be a hell of alot more domestics then in an area of single, however three or four generations, family homes. Common cop steet smarts/sence will trump their bullshit predective analysis everytime!!! This shit ain't even funny anymore.
Isn't this just 21st century "profiling"! Remember what Terry Hilliard said... "not on my watch, not in my city!"
Off topic -- but when you look at that statistician-in-his-office-cubicle picture (which really brings the entire body of "Dilbert" cartoons to life for me), not really.
Channel 7 News is reporting that President Obama will be visiting India, and that the Indian government is taking the unprecedented step of removing all coconuts from trees in the area which he will be visiting.
This is to eliminate the possibility of one of the coconuts falling and striking Obama in the head.
1. India, as rendered by Fisher-Price -- a hysterically funny pinball machine, a Pachinko game blown up to continent size and animated like a giant Museum of Science and Industry exhibit to teach the rules of probability to kids at further risk to the precarious dignity of an already-diminished head of state.
2. Pray for a one-term presidency.
3. Pray for a one-term Predictive Analysis Unit.
"PERGUN in your asses and PULLTRGR assholes."
--11/04/2010 12:14:00 AM
I am in awe. My hat is off to you.
How I wish I had said that.
You, sir, are a man of singular talent and perception -- uniquely qualified to be Chicago's next Superintendent of Police in this digital age.
Please step into the new Mayor's office and make yourself known!
"Can anyone decipher this?
"Drew Peterson...dispatched an angry note...accusing Will County State's Attorney James Glasgow of having four obsessions...[among them]...
"4. Working that hairdo of his."
11/04/2010 12:21:00 AM
I gotta give Peterson this much -- he's right about the hairdo.
It's called being a Beat Cop you IDIOTS!!!
I would put up a veteran 3rd watch working beat cop against this nonsence any day to tell me where, when and who. When it comes to violence on the beat!
"Have you ever read such magnificent bullshit in your entire life?"
No SCC... No we haven't. But for sure we've seen the far heights of fabulously fantastical fuckery rendered in black ink on paper in our season.
"They forgot to discuss 'paradigms,' 'bandwidth,
'core competencies,' 'imagineering,' and other bullshit words that are used in IT companies."
--11/04/2010 12:36:00 AM
"Used in IT companies?" Hell, cleaning services talk that way today. Even the government, gimping along at the back of the herd, has managed to pick up the jargon.
Don't worry. They'll get to it as soon as they can "rededicate themselves" and turn out a "mission statement" for the "community."
They're "passionate!"
...and Friday means you get to bring your dog to work!
*
THIS GUY has GOT to GO!!!! What KIND of COP was this goofy guy anyway. What he is doing with computers, hard working cops "THE REAL POLICE" are doing everyday on the street collecting intelligence by relating to people, THATS how policing is REALLY done! Computers are only as intelligent and accurate as the information we put into them. This ASS HAT is stepping on the backs of hard working coppers who are filling out contact cards and reports everyday. Watch this guy carefully folks, he is the kind who will give you some bullshit technology story that most lay people will not understand because it is NOT their expertise. This guy has no business being the POLICE because he is afraid to be the POLICE. He cannot relate to people therefore they stick him in front of a computer.
Goldstein gave his very 1st presentation at the September CAR meeting to all of the exempts. During the presentation, everyone in the room were looking at each other with smirks and smiles and rolling their eyes. When he finished, the Mic was passed down the line from dept to dept. and each of them asked questions to try to figure out what the hell they just heard. Peterson, to his credit, flat out ridiculed the entire presentation as complete gibberish. After the meeting, Brust was seen going around asking if anyone could explain to him what he just heard. What a joke.
Open the pod bay doors Hal.......
"It all made perfect sense to me
11/04/2010 09:51:00 AM"
ya don't say.....
from 11/04/2010 12:33:00 PM:
"'Impulse behavior' is predicted very accurately every day in the world of marketing."
no, it is induced very effectively.
"I'm kind of surprised at the backlash to what is essentially using all the information at their disposal to give officers an advantage."
garbage in = garbage out
there is no 'statistical' advantage in garbage.
"That you don't see amazing results so far is probably a combination of your misunderstanding what this thing is doing and the fact that this stuff - as with most analyses - do take a while to sort all the data out."
no, we understand what 'this thing' is doing, we have sorted out the 'data' and have reached the conclusions previously expressed.
nice attempt at mumbo jumbo bullshitting, though.
process that.
Ah, who f'n cares anymore?
Brett I hope you read this but you are a fucking joke.
Ah, who f'n cares anymore?
11/04/2010 07:12:00 PM
Ditto
"Open the pod bay doors Hal.......
11/04/2010 06:47:00 PM"
Look, Dave, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
I just had a couple of sliders. I have to go univarigate my algorithm.
11/04/2010 01:20:00 PM
just spit up on the computer after reading that lmao
Anonymous said...
What kind of asshole signature is that?
I am a predictive handwriting expert and based on my Carnegie Mellon handwriting cluster algorithym I am predicting Goldstein is a complete weiner.
-----------------
Lmao! Nice one.
I predict that come 2011, once Daley is gone and a new mayor and new superintendent are in place you will see the Ladners, O'Connell-Doyles, Brusts, Dalys, Goldsteins, etc. all gone.
To all you asshats bashing kid Utz for the way dad Utz was obviously don't know and have never met Jon. No he doesn't have that much time on but the time he did have on he was never afraid to get out of the car and put his hands on people. For all you hard chargers who say he worked the desk inside somewhere and never really worked the street, I guess catching burglars, on-viewing robbery offenders, chasing the guy holding the gun, chasing and locking up the armed car jackers down the dark alley, isn't really working the street. And to the dumb ass who asked if anybody in 011 knew if this guy spent time on the street or just sat behind a desk? How the fuck would anybody in 011 know that since he never worked in 011, so who's the handjob on that one?
**********************************
Well then genius....how much time on the street does he have???
Where'd he grab all those great pinches????
Im sure he has some honarable mentions and d/c's to back up your big stories.....well mr HANDJOB...WE ARE WAITING......
Arbitrator gives Naperville police raises for 3 years
November 4, 2010 7:37 PM | No Comments
After more than a year of stalled negotiations, an arbitrator ordered a new contract giving Naperville police officers three years worth of raises that City Manager Douglas Krieger said the city can't afford, according to a release issued tonight.
The news release sent out by the city said the arbitrator ruled that police officers will be awarded a 3.3 percent retroactive raise for the first year of the contract, which began May 1, 2009. Officers also will receive 3 percent raises for each of the next two years. The contract expires April 30, 2012.
Can it predict the baby mamma drama calls and "I wants him out" calls?
That's one pretty To-From. I wish mine looked that nice. I bet it was scented, too. I'm thinking jasmine. Mmmmm ... jasmine.
Listen , if this kid, I do mean kid, can predict things then he should open up a service for the stock market. He could sit back and relax and make a ton of $$- but he would rather help the city? Ok, I will have the Easter Bunny and Santa pick me up from the bar.
old retired guy
Another question for those who work on this nonsense- does this impulsive action have relationship to an impulsive wave with regards to EW theory.
I'm getting an impulse to get....a bag of sliders and a couple of beers....am I prone to violence?
come to think of it, will there be a "magnificent bullshit" ribbon for the uniform?
Crains Chicago will buy any bullshit sold to them. Remember when they interviewed Luberman 15 years ago and said that in two years the department would be paperless????
Hey Crains, I've some beautiful oceanfront property in Colorado for yo!
Try tarot cards, reading tea leaves and throwing darts at a map of the city.
Got any tips on the ponies and the stock market, almighty psychic Goldstein.
Is this algorithmic enough for you? (__O__)
When are they making this detectives class?
" Impulse behavior is predicted...." This refers to marketing of goods not an ass whipping with a 2 by 4, just because. Is this the next Huberman?? Don't people expect actual results anymore???
The information they put in is probably only 60% accurate.
This stuff is down right embarrassing to the CPD and a HUGE waste of money.
Before Goldstein got promoted he would talk down to exempts and tell them he "worked" for the superintendent. This guy is class a douche bag and his smugness will be the end of him when the new regime takes over. I hope he remembers the inside of a squad car.
We obviously have many brainless bosses, to be a man and let this kid with no experience, tell them what to do they should all resign immediately! Who did this punks parents pay off? Will he be another luberman? Where is pat fitz at? Load the bus now we will help!
A couple of weeks ago his predictive analytics group had picked out locations in 015 that were in an industrial area on the the south end of district. There was nothing going on but they insisted that there would be crime. And we are paying him 120k! God help us.
Anonymous said...
Ah, who f'n cares anymore?
11/04/2010 07:12:00 PM
Good question. Not me, that's for sure.
09:28:00 PM...
LMAO!
The CPD 2010 Magnificent Bullshit Award & Ribbon!
The ribbon has a wee schmear of bullshit on it.
smell it!
live it!
and you jolly well better act like you love it!
Jayzus! Where to they mine these people?
Ummm, you just simply can't predict what the demon will do. he has no borders, no guidelines, no morals and no idea how to live the right way.
Oh, and isn't this EXACTLY what Huberman pulled to blast his way up from Patrolman to Deputy Supe? Some bullshit, never-gonna-work technology?
Just sayin'
"Can it predict the baby mamma drama calls and 'I wants him out' calls?"
--11/04/2010 08:24:00 PM
"Mah hubbin he hit me!"
"Your husband, ma'am?"
"Well, no. But he live here!"
*
Not 10 years on between the 2 of them and patrolmen and they are telling everyone about the street. The CPD is really screwed up. Don't any of the bosses see this scam especially since they have have never predicted anything
11/04/2010 03:13:00 PM
There is a Deputy Chief on the South side that started this whole analysis thing back in 2007. BUT, he was approaching things operationally. Him and another PO who had street experience took off with it and numbers did come down. you can approach things different ways but the dependent and independent factors involved for every individual index crime category are unlimited. A combination of what is working and what needs to be tuned need to be recognized for the benefit of all and for public safety.
The ongoing work of other units that are operational should be complimented by such units that are doing analysis. The policing model for the new mellinium is changing and all are encouraged to participate in a constructive debate to benefit our society.
Recognition of police experiences and expertise are a benefit to members of law enforcement as well as the public.
Education is not a shame. Applying knowledge and experience to a tough job that existed since the birth of humanity is not easy and requires participants of society to balance duties and perform the tasks using the best combinations of means.
Best of luck to All.
Anonymous said...
"Can it predict the baby mamma drama calls and 'I wants him out' calls?"
--11/04/2010 08:24:00 PM
"Mah hubbin he hit me!"
"Your husband, ma'am?"
"Well, no. But he live here!"
*
11/05/2010 01:24:00 AM
Don't you mean "he stay here?"
Anonymous said...
Crains Chicago will buy any bullshit sold to them. Remember when they interviewed Luberman 15 years ago and said that in two years the department would be paperless????
Hey Crains, I've some beautiful oceanfront property in Colorado for yo!
11/04/2010 09:33:00 PM
Luberman forgot to mention that the reason for paperless would be lack of money to buy paper.
Utz, with a total of 2.5 years on the job....Unbelievable!! How can this guy have any knowledge of anything related to Law Enforcement with such little expierience??
Do you think the two of them will help me with my kids math homework? They are good with numbers.....
Pre-dicktive Anal Alices Unit?
Hey I am not a cop & am actually a H.S. dropout but was wondering if I can get a job to work on the Predictive Analysis Unit? I am very good at doing this same thing. Predicting crime. MY PREDICTION IS THAT SOMEONE WILL GET SHOT WITHIN THE NEXT MONTH. I also predict that he will get shot somewhere in the ghetto. He will be an honor student who is turning his life around. He wasn't the intended target. He wasn't in no gang. He never hurt nobody. That his family will give the news media his 8th grade graduation picture. That he is in his late teens but the picture was taken last year.
Now I will be back next month to see if this has hapened and when it does I would like a job doing nothing just like this jewish guy with a family with a history of clout. And seeing that the city is in a finacial bind I only want 96k salary. See that is a 20% saving to the city.
Not A Cop
Oh one more thing else I will predict somewhere in todays post on here someone will mention Masters and J-Fled.
Hey J-Fled when will you stop stealing money from the city and just leave?
Integrated management outputs with total organizational flexibility show systematized parallel analysis to be functional and even logical. Can I get a gold star now? Please, please!
But on the other hand balanced operational contingencies compatatible with creative guidelines produce sychronized modular capabilities responsive to transitional concepts and logistical factors!! And I only went to Catholic High School.
"'Impulse behavior' is predicted very accurately every day in the world of marketing."
no, it is induced very effectively.
_______________________________
But wouldn't inducing impulse behavior effectively require knowing what actually drives "impulse" behavior? You just reiterated my point in trying to prove it wrong.
Obviously if the data is terrible ("garbage in") then the results won't be reliable ("garbage out"). That might mean most of the positives from this will be in quantifying how the shitty data is. Whether that's worth the investment, obviously, is a big concern here.
I didn't mean to sound like "mumbo jumbo bullshitting" but the claim that "in the private sector, the guys and gals writing this crap are usually the first 'middle management' casualties of cost cutting moves" is completely and utterly backward. It's the people who make strategy decisions by "going with their gut" that are the first to go. Twenty years ago those guys were hot shit, but today they're just a step behind.
In a weird way, the predictive analysis group (PAG) is a desperate measure by the bosses to figure out where the crime is occurring (since they can't figure it out on their own, which defeats the purpose of having them in charge, right?). you see, because the real police are sitting back, not doing proactive police work, and of course no REAL police are being promoted, the clout babies at the top have to find some other way to make themselves appear to be earning their pay. hence, the need for quasi-mathematical statistics to find out where crime is going to occur. since 1998, some p.o.s (myself included) have been checking PCAD at the start of their tours looking for the person w/gun calls, looking for the descriptions of the offenders, and then going back later and actually making arrests. however, bosses back then didnt need PAG because they had people under them who did work. and we worked because we loved being the police and our bosses treated us well (time due not denied, got to leave work for family emergencies, etc.). when we liked our supervisors, we worked. now that we don't like them, we don't work as much proactively. hence, the need for clout bosses to have some other way of getting the job done. and here is what it is: predict where crime will be and flood the area with TRU and MSF. crime will be lessened due to the sheer outstanding numbers of police presence in the area, not due to police work. and that's what this is. to the bosses, this sounds proactive, but in reality it is reactive: we are reacting to the numbers, statitistics and probabilities generated by algorithms and such. we are taking police from one area and putting them in another area. well the bad guys have their "predictive analysis groups" too. when they see the police around one area too much they are going to go somewhere else. so we the police will be chasing them from one area to another, while the citizens in the undermanned areas have to deal with the thuggery.
It really boils down to the fact that the CPD received federal funds for this. It is costing the CPD nothing for the salaries or computers so why not have someone else, the federal government pay for the whole unit
To all you asshats bashing kid Utz for the way dad Utz was obviously don't know and have never met Jon. No he doesn't have that much time on but the time he did have on he was never afraid to get out of the car and put his hands on people. For all you hard chargers who say he worked the desk inside somewhere and never really worked the street, I guess catching burglars, on-viewing robbery offenders, chasing the guy holding the gun, chasing and locking up the armed car jackers down the dark alley, isn't really working the street. And to the dumb ass who asked if anybody in 011 knew if this guy spent time on the street or just sat behind a desk? How the fuck would anybody in 011 know that since he never worked in 011, so who's the handjob on that one?
--------------
You are so impressed with little Utzie after he was on the street for a whole two and one half years. He gave you a little chubby.
I think your comment says a hell of a lot more about what kind of cop you are than the kind of cop little Utzie is.
Anonymous said...
Utz, with a total of 2.5 years on the job....Unbelievable!! How can this guy have any knowledge of anything related to Law Enforcement with such little expierience??
11/05/2010 07:32:00 AM
How did you predict that? because as of 28OCT10 is 2.5 years on the job for Utz.
"Don't you mean 'he stay here?'"
--11/05/2010 05:56:00 AM
"Well, he useta was."
"What do you want us to do about this, ma'am?"
"Nothin'."
Officers smiling at each other, already walking back down the stairs putting their notebooks away...
I remember Brett Goldstein when he first got to 011. I can't say anything bad about him as a person because he is a decent guy however he did work inside a lot and it just doesn't seem right that someone so new to police work should lead something like this. The city could use more police in the field instead of "office workers" at 35th street... Just sayin'
Old Retired Guy Here:
Anyone Who Can Not Look At This, For The Entire Nonsense, That It Is, Should Not, Be In Law Enforcement.
I have not worked in the 011th. District since the address was 4001 W. Fillmore, but I could give you a good guess where the next problem area might be.
Please Stop The Bull Shit !!
Excellent use of the thesaurus!!
Smoke and mirrors to bamboozle the semi-educated, circuses for the masses of the ignorant and uneducated!!!
But wouldn't inducing impulse behavior effectively require knowing what actually drives "impulse" behavior? You just reiterated my point in trying to prove it wrong
*******************
To be serious for a minute, you do make a point here. Yes, you do have to have specific knowledge of what "causes" a given behavior to successfully drive that behavior. In marketing, to drive an impulsive purchase of a candy bar at the checkout lane there has been reams of data gathered that indicates where it should be, how it should look, why it is effective there and not in the aisles, etc.
The problem is, for the crystal ball mathematical analysis to be effective you need to get more specificity than effective police knowledge can provide, and it needs to allow as well for human variances. There is no way to mathematically predict the random. Of course it can indicate there is a greater potential for violence in an area that has seen a great uptick in man with a gun calls, but so can a reasonably effective watch commander that reviews calls. It is never going to predict anything other than certain indicators of violent behavior may be predictive of likely violence in xyz area, which again can be done with greater success by considering individual human factors by experienced police officers that are familiar with an area and its occupants and effectively use snitches and street interviews.
Goldstein gave his very 1st presentation at the September CAR meeting to all of the exempts. During the presentation, everyone in the room were looking at each other with smirks and smiles and rolling their eyes. When he finished, the Mic was passed down the line from dept to dept. and each of them asked questions to try to figure out what the hell they just heard. Peterson, to his credit, flat out ridiculed the entire presentation as complete gibberish. After the meeting, Brust was seen going around asking if anyone could explain to him what he just heard. What a joke.
*********************************
If this is true, then why is he still there? Why is the unit still running?
"well the bad guys have their "predictive analysis groups" too. when they see the police around one area too much they are going to go somewhere else. so we the police will be chasing them from one area to another, while the citizens in the undermanned areas have to deal with the thuggery.
11/05/2010 12:38:00 PM"
sorta like a game of 'hide & seek', huh?
"But wouldn't inducing impulse behavior effectively require knowing what actually drives "impulse" behavior? You just reiterated my point in trying to prove it wrong."
you don't need statistical mathematics to know what 'actually drives impulse behavior', what you need is two eyes, two ears, a reasonably functioning brain and the experiences of interacting with a variety of other human beings, ie., what the beat cop does every fucking day.
as for your marketing reference, two words: sex sells.
"I didn't mean to sound like "mumbo jumbo bullshitting" but the claim that "in the private sector, the guys and gals writing this crap are usually the first 'middle management' casualties of cost cutting moves" is completely and utterly backward. It's the people who make strategy decisions by "going with their gut" that are the first to go. Twenty years ago those guys were hot shit, but today they're just a step behind.
11/05/2010 12:08:00 PM"
to reiterate: sex sells.
that's it.
that's all there is to it.
try thinking about it, without the math.
if you have a problem with doing that, ask your penis, or vagina, as the case may be.
God, that look -- like the thing's going to bite him.
This is what happens when someone hasn't qualified on the stapler and isn't quite sure where the safety is.
Anonymous said...
"But wouldn't inducing impulse behavior effectively require knowing what actually drives "impulse" behavior? You just reiterated my point in trying to prove it wrong."
you don't need statistical mathematics to know what 'actually drives impulse behavior', what you need is two eyes, two ears, a reasonably functioning brain and the experiences of interacting with a variety of other human beings, ie., what the beat cop does every fucking day.
as for your marketing reference, two words: sex sells.
11/05/2010 12:08:00 PM
I want to say one word to you. Just one word: Plastics
011 is going to have violent crime?
WOW!
Who could have seen that one coming?
I see a D/C worthy report.
What other saying could be used regarding this situation that starts with the word cluster?
"I want to say one word to you. Just one word: Plastics
11/07/2010 11:27:00 AM"
would that be soft or hard plastics?
Utz may not have as much time on the job as all you know it alls, but he has more character, smarts and balls than any one I've worked with. Before you make your comments...know the man!
'Goldstein gave his very 1st presentation at the September CAR meeting to all of the exempts. During the presentation, everyone in the room were looking at each other with smirks and smiles and rolling their eyes. When he finished, the Mic was passed down the line from dept to dept. and each of them asked questions to try to figure out what the hell they just heard. Peterson, to his credit, flat out ridiculed the entire presentation as complete gibberish. After the meeting, Brust was seen going around asking if anyone could explain to him what he just heard. What a joke.
*********************************
If this is true, then why is he still there? Why is the unit still running?'
Obviously, because the Chief of Staff has decided that it should be.
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